Hard saying, not knowing.

Models align over night and startle the audience with nearly every single one moving from a torpid consolidated system to something more elongated, and swift.  Still likely to see some showers between Sunday evening and Monday noon, but what I described yesterday as a jump from the OR coast to the Sierra is almost what we are now seeing.  I would just amend "Sierra" to "West Slope".  If this thing turns into a long N-S axis, we won't see much spillover into the Tahoe Basin.  Regardless, we are still looking at a moderate rain fall for much of the northern portion of the state.  Nothing drought busting, but exciting none the less.  In the meantime, enjoy some all time weather.

The rest of today looks nice.  It was very warm on the school yard at Bay View for the Halloween Parade.  Not quite 80F.  The near shore winds look light right now, but there is still a brisk wind out on the buoys.  That could move inland, and would cool us a good bit.  Tomorrow looks like more of the same, but we might see a slightly cooler afternoon.  So, not quite 80F.  Sunday drops back down to about 70F, as the peak temperature of the day will be just before the arrival of a cold front.  Depending on when that front arrives, warming could be suppressed during the afternoon.  And then that chance of rain thing in the evening.

I'm going with a decent chance of some light showery patterns, with a slight chance of actual rain in convective stuff getting caught on the local hills.  But most of the energy and moisture will be north and east.  South winds.  Strong at times.  Everything moves out quickly, so Monday will see breaking clouds and remain cool in the upper 60s.  We could be back into the 70s by Wednesday, with warming possible for Friday.  It kind of looks like the quicker passing of the storm will allow warmer air back in sooner than it looked yesterday.  It is like Mother Nature is rejecting winter and staying solidly in autumn.  More fine weather next week as early as Tuesday.  Not that Sunday and Monday will be that bad.  In fact, they will likely have the best sunsets of the week.  And perhaps the biggest surf, if a bit jumbled and piled up.

Rain or shine, two things are looking pretty for sure.

First one is that Friday and especially Saturday are lining up to be stellar.  Some cool and crisp mornings.  A little bit of a on shore flow still on Friday.  Upper 70s look likely, and I would not be surprised if the warmer areas of town top 80F.  The second for sure thing is much cooler air for next work week, arriving with a cold front on Sunday afternoon.  We will be looking at highs in the mid 60s by the middle of next week, and lows could drop down into the upper 40s by Wednesday morning.  Chilly.  We still see a decent chance for rain, especially over night Sunday into Monday morning.

Last light wave in Fisherman's Cove, Wells Beach, Maine.

But it is looking more and more like this storm will jump from off the Oregon coast to the southern Cascades and Sierra Nevada, ultimately leaving us in a more showery wake.  And while we could use the water locally, the good news is that this should bring a nice moderate rainfall to the state.  And we should get some snow out of it, mostly along the crest and on the peaks.  We could see a few inches down to Lake Tahoe.  In Santa Cruz, expect it to be cool, showery, and a bit breezy.  A fun day to either cozy up and stay inside, or don stompers, slickers and hats and go for a romp through the redwoods.

Some adjustments.

For instance, it was drizzly this morning.  More than just fog stuff.  But not really rain. Although there were a few drops last night up the coast at sunset.   They say there is still a chance for some today but looking outside at the blue up there, I'd suggest it is  a slim chance.  Tomorrow morning will be heavy and grey again.  High of about 70F, with some strong on shore winds from the north west.  Beaches up the coast could be seeing 20-25 mph gusts.  Ouch.  Swell is pumping though.  Go check out the show and walk along West Cliff this evening.  The tide will be out, and everyone will be surfing.  Good thing to suggest here.  Stay away from the water today and tomorrow unless you really do know what you are doing.  Things will be dangerous for a beginner out there today.  Watch the waves hitting the cliffs and stay away from the edge.  And all that stuff.  Just be smart.

What was once a Sierra tree.  Kirkwood, California.

Friday and Saturday look nice with clear mornings and mid to upper 70s warmth.  Now here comes the switch.  You know that cold front I mentioned coming for Sunday and early next week?  Well, it has picked up some moisture.  So we could see a few bouts of light rain starting late Sunday and into the middle of next week.  Not looking like anything too heavy, but wetter than the models were the last few days.  Worth watching and planning accordingly.  Oh, and more swell arriving on Halloween, although with a bit less height.    

Not looking too wet tomorrow.

At this point I am thinking there is a very little chance of rain other than perhaps a slight sprinkle.  Even those look like they will be well north.  Cloud cover is keeping it a bit cooler today.  Even cooler tomorrow.  There will be plenty of cloud cover on Wednesday at least.  More of the same on Thursday, but at least the sky will clear.  And it looks like we could see some strong on shore winds from the northwest.  So a breezy Thursday.  And still hanging in the upper 60s to low 70s.  But we see some warming by Friday, and the winds back off on Saturday.  Looks like we are store for a fine Halloween.

But... by Sunday, a strong cold front will come through town, dropping our daily highs into the mid 60s.  And by the 2nd or 3rd we are looking at another chance for rain.  So keep on checking back.  Until then, look forward to some solid swells arriving tomorrow and this weekend.  

And drier still.

Okay, so I'm not telling you to not pick up the yard tomorrow if you failed to find time today, but every model run is drier looking than the prior.  Perhaps more pertinent is that tomorrow will be a bit cooler than it was today.  And there does not look to be much of a rebound.  Regardless what next Wednesday brings, it will be a cooling trend through then.  Low 70s Sunday through Tuesday.  Upper 60s on Wednesday.  Still a chance for rain, but the storm is looking like it will fall apart with some moisture running ashore around Vancouver, with showers into Oregon.  Again, a lot can change, but we are now four days out, and by tomorrow afternoon's run, we will be getting a better idea of what will actually happen.  In the meantime, the weather is pretty damn nice out there.

The beaches of southern Maine are wide open when the tide pulls out.  Wells Beach.

If you happen to surf, you probably like how the weather for next Wednesday is panning out.  If our high pressure can deflect this strong storm far enough north, we could be in for a nice treat.  The whole thing is just winding up out there today, but if all goes as forecast, we could be seeing the first solid swell of the fall season arriving next Wednesday.  This thing is looking like the biggest yet this season, perhaps sending some solid double overhead swell up the coast.

What was south, is north.

Like I've said before, this time of year, any forecast further than six hours out if basically guessing.  The system for next Wednesday, that looked to dive south yesterday, skirts north based on today's solution.  Still, confidence builds for some sort of wet solution next Wednesday.  And the forecast ship steers straight through then.  Mid 70s for high temps, crisp mornings, perhaps scattered fog along the coast in the morning, and light winds.  Great news for those wanting to surf the arriving NW swell which is feeling like the best yet this season.  It was carrying a little extra power out there this morning, and fully expect this oner to be wrapping into town.  By tomorrow head high ish swell from Hurricane Olaf will be strengthening from the SW, and shifting more to the W by Sunday.  That will be backed up by another long period southern hemi swell.  And if that were not enough, we see another small to moderate NW arriving Monday, and a bigger one on Wednesday.  Autumn is here.

Bunkering down at Wells Beach, Maine.

Watch the forecasts, as we see a chance for rain next Wednesday.  How much and under what condition is still up for question.  Looks like a warm storm, with not a whole lot of wind or rain as of right now.  But we are still five days out.  A lot can change by then.  In the meantime, enjoy the nice weather and pumping swell.

On another note, what has been consistent in the model runs is a series or strong, broad storms moving across the NPCA next week.  We could be in for some serious swell.  There is also a small, closed low, expected impact the northern California coast later this weekend, but none of that rain should drift south.  Just a curious bit of weather.  Stay tuned and prep that yard.  While it does not look like a lot coming next week, that could change.

Gaining confidence.

In a way, confidence is growing for a wet solution a week out.  OTOH, confidence is waning for an actual pattern change, and this is looking more like a one shot kind of thing.  This morning's forecast has an coastal slider, coming in low and south, with the heaviest precipitation from Monterey south.  Next Wednesday evening.  Nothing too exciting other than it being late October after four dry seasons.  And I guess this storm being the remnants of the first solid NPAC system of the season, with an even larger one behind it as the first one comes ashore.  What happens to that second one is way to far out to even ponder about.

Gone are the dog days of summer; here comes the fall.  Crescent Beach, Wells, Maine.

Not much change in the short term other than the high pressure is not expected to rebound quite as well.  After today, the afternoon highs will climb into the low to mid 70s.  And then hover there.  Weaker high means more fog and clouds.  Still, the winds are looking pretty damn slack, with perhaps the strongest afternoon breeze on Saturday, peaking at less than 10 knots.  So a nice week of weather, with a chance for dome rain next Wednesday.  More on that as it approaches.  You may want to take this coming weekend to prepare things.  While I don't see a flip switch pattern change happening, a lot can change in 7 days on the fall.  This next one actually could carry some significant rains with it, and a slight jog 50 miles north from the current track would bring a decent soaking to our county.

Gorgeous Morning.

The fog held mostly over the water, providing for a very fine morning.  It was crisp, in the mid to upper 50s.  The air was quite clear.  It was simply gorgeous.  Tomorrow looks like more of the same, although the afternoon is still expected a touch cooler tomorrow.  Only 70F, or so.  We could still see a return to some fog hanging around in the mornings as early as Friday.  Of course, that would mean some lingering moisture or clouds at periods during the day.  And a return to warmer afternoons.  Looks like some fine weather.  Top that with some small to moderate surf arriving by late Thursday, and we are looking as some nice weather.  Basically, same as forecast yesterday.  

Round 1 day at the CWC.  The Monday prior to the event was pretty good.  Fall is getting started.

Fine Sailing

More of the same tomorrow.  There will be some variations.  Such as tomorrow will likely have a little more morning fog in areas.  But that will burn off early.  Calm morning conditions will slowly give way to some sort of slight on shore.  And on Thursday we could see a clearer, crisper morning.  It might be a touch cooler on Thursday, but still well within the 70s for the high.  It sure makes a big difference in the sun this time of year.  The weather looks quite calm on Thursday in fact, as we return to a much more fall like pattern.  Still, fog could return later in the week for a few mornings.  But it will be warm and calm in the afternoons.  On shores will develop some days more than others.  By early next week we could see daytime highs pushing up toward 80F.  Not a bad October week.





We are going to see a return to swell later this week.  Currently a small long period south is offering up some small waves.  On Thursday, a new northwest combo shows up.  Seeing the last one kind of under delivered, I'm not getting too excited about this one.  Still, we should see some fun sized surf out of the north that slowly gives way through the weekend to a new moderate long period south.  This thing looks like it could be fun and combo up with more tropical swell.  Nothing epic just yet, but October has seen a fun run of surf.

Dryer and Warmer.

So, to start, there is chatter about an emerging MJO, a flipping PNA and a wet system for the end of the month.  I've seen a  few model runs suggest a Halloween storm, but at two weeks away, very little faith is given.  Regardless, thought I'd throw that out there this Monday morning, if just to have it on your radar.  And to re-enforce the need to get ready for winter this year.  It is easy to get lax after so many mild years.  In the meantime, the weather is moving from awesome to awesome.  Clouds remain through at least he first half of the day, but we will be dry by Tuesday.  Today there is still some cool air in place with a high of about 70F.  With a clear night expected, our low will did well into the 50s.  Perhaps even dropping to the mid 50s by tomorrow night.  The flip side is it will warm to the mid to upper 70s through the afternoons the rest of this week.  And the sky will be clear.  Sunsets will be a bit less stunning, but start gazing is on.  We have been enjoying Venus, Jupiter and Mars recently, with the waning moon gone in the early morning hours.  Did you know that you could see Venus's crescent through a pair of kid binoculars?  Pretty cool.  October 26th will see the closest grouping of these three planets (with Venus and Jupiter in their third conjunction of the year) in the eastern sky.

Oct '11.  Surfed looked similiar for the CWC this year.

Clouds and cool today.  All sun and stars starting this evening.  Warmer, in the mid 70s, through the week's end.  Possibly major pattern change for the last week of October.  Moderate swell in the water, and dropping.  Some SW long term, and perhaps a NW later this week.  Nothing stellar on the charts.  Waiting for the season to really kick off.

Changing Patterns

Sorry.  Family visiting has kept me busy.  Gorgeous out there this morning with just the right amount of cloud cover to make the sunrise pop.  Slight chance for some more showers today.  It rained down south just north of LA yesterday.  Mudslides resulted.  We had some rain in the very early morning hours of Thursday, and a very brief sprinkle this morning before 7AM.  This weather was driven by a low pressure system that came in from under the dominant high pressure and centered near Point Conception and then moved ashore.  Today is a transition day, as high pressure tries to reassert itself, only to be squashed by a system coming down from the north.  NWS is forecasting a decent chance for showers Saturday morning, but the GFS suggests that the rain will remain north of here in the morning, and shift to our east in the afternoon.  So, while the north coast and the Sierra might see some rain (and decent amounts at that), it does not look like the light showers will get south of SF.  So, I suspect that Saturday will feel much like today.  Cooler, with an afternoon high in the low 70s.  Warmest when the sun is out.  Sunday will be a day of clearing and drying.  By Monday we will see some warming back through the mid 70s, and lifting to a peak mid week of about 80F.  The nights will clear back up as well, and we will see a return to the pattern we had until this past Wednesday.  Perfect, autumnal weather.  And speaking of fall, the swells have been arriving.

An October turn at Steamers.

The O'neil Coldwater Classic begins today at the Lane.  Should be fun with fun but meager fading swell today to get through the trials.  By Saturday afternoon we should begin to see the first of the next northwesterly swell that could bring overhead waves to town on Sunday.  That would make for some nice conditions for the finals.  That swell will peak on Monday and fade through the week.  We see more southerly swells on the way too.  Things have really picked up recently, which has made everyone breath a little better.  If you are not getting in the water, but want to see a show, head tot he Lane on Sunday.  You should see the contest finals and the a local free surf session.  And with still some moisture in the air, the sunsets should still be going off.

Enter Autumn.

Get your gourds out.  And corn stalks.  It is fall.  And the weather is falling right in line.  Cool nights, with early morning lows in the mid to upper 50s.  We get a little extra cooling thanks a clear sky.  Those starts were certainly stunning this morning.  I used my son's binoculars to spy of Venus, and could see it was a crescent.  Pretty cool stuff.  Light, off shore breezes in the morning give way to light on shore afternoon winds, at around 10-15 mph.  Warming up into the mid to upper 70s.  Friday and Saturday will be the warmest, pushing 80F.  Things stay clear through the middle of next week.

All in all, some nice weather.  And we are seeing a building series of small southern hemi swells piling on this week.  It is chest high today.  Bigger through Friday.  Hurricane Ono delivers a solid head high plus pulse out of the WSW on Saturday, shifting NW on Sunday and lingering into next week.  Looks like a fun run of surf coming.  And some fine weather.

High pressure begins to weaken after Saturday, and high temps will subside a bit.  Mid 70s.  But it looks to remain strong enough to fend off a series of storms next week and beyond, sending them well to our north.  We could be looking at a nice run of fine fall weather and fine fall swell.  Enjoy.

Steering dry.

Well, that rain never materialized.  It did a bit south of here.  Nothing exciting, other than the fact that it early October in a drought year.  On the other hand, this little system did usher in some cold air.  It was crisp on Sunday morning, and in fact, remained quite cool through mid day.  A calm, and clear afternoon allowed for some serious warming as well.  What a wonderful day.  This week looks like more of the same.  A few morning clouds today with clearing through morning.  A southerly wind flow will keep it from clearing too much.  Temps in the low 70s.  Clouds redevelop this evening.  Winds shift more out of the west on Tuesday, and we will see a bit more clearing.

Bell Tower.

By Wednesday, we begin to se a dryer air mass set up, and the nights should clear out.  Winds will shift more out of the NW, although the mornings could see off shore winds.  Day time temps warm into the mid to upper 70s for late in the work week and into the weekend.  It looks like a very nice autumn week ahead.  Lucky us.  In the meantime, the north Pacific is starting to wake up from a very long slumber.  Forecasts have a broad low pressure developing in the Gulf of Alaska by late this week with a well energized Jet Stream.  Looks like fall might finally be ready to turn on.  

More rain for the weekend.

Did that get your attention?  Figured it would more than my first choice for headline, which was, "Wha?"  Seriously interesting weather we are having.  It seemed to clear a bit last night around sunset.  Speaking of which, it was spectacular.  And was this morning's sunrise.  And then it rained around 8AM or so.  Not the almost rain that fell through the day yesterday, but real, actual, steady rain.  For about a half hour or so.  The ground actually got wet.  At least the exposed bare earth and the pebbles at my house did.  My garden plants' leaves got a decent washing as well.  Always good for the cucumbers and beans.  And we did not get too much, so the tomatoes are likely to be loving it as well.  And then the sun broke out around noon and it got warm.  Just about in the low 70s.  There is still a lot of moisture in the air, so clouds line the local mountains.  Big puffy, white ones.  It is pretty out there.  Onshore flow is moderate, and a marine layer could push in tonight.  Combined with the upper clouds, the sky will be at least partly blanketed, so another night of not too cool temps.

The Duomo, Siena, Italy.  At sunset in June.  We have way better sunsets going on these days.  Get out there this evening.

I expect any overnight clouds or fog to clear fairly early tomorrow.  The northwest onshore flow will help blow it out, along with a warmer day in store.  Not really looking at 80F, but it will be noticeably warmer than today.  Then, over the weekend, energy from the north will hop into the low developing underneath us, and now looks like the closed low will travel down the coast bring light rain to our region and moderate, to possibly heavy, rain along the southern coastline.  Right now the track is forecast just off shore, but if it were to shift a hundred miles east, it will bring some nice rain to the state.  More likely some clouds, and perhaps a sprinkle, on Sunday here in Santa Cruz.  Better chances for more rain south of Point Conception.  Interesting enough.  Of course this solution effectively closes the storm door behind it, and that system next week diverts to the north.

The weekend will be cooler, and calmer, and cloudier.  Low 70s, mid 50s.  Things begin to clear and dry Monday.  Days will warm to the mid 70s, and nights will follow by warming to upper 50s.  Although those clear skies will allow things to feel crisp early.  Winds look like they still might go slack early next week.  Wind swell is on the increase over the weekend.  Hopefully that thing next weeks out in the Gulf develops us some nice swell.