This is the winter that just keeps on giving. Chances looking good for rain starting in the north bay as early as Sunday night. The combination of a marine layer and incoming weather makes drizzle possible Saturday night and likely by Sunday night.
Sunday to be warmish, with a good 5-10 degree temperature drop by Monday. If will fee even cooler with a breeze, and yes, rain. Not a whole lot. A tenth of an inch, up to 3/4 of an inch in the hills. Snow expected at the higher elevations in the Sierra, up to 8 inches is possible.
Drying weather for Tuesday and a warm day currently forecast for Wednesday. The rest of the week and the weekend see as possible cooling trend, but most likely dry. Still, there is a chance for an off shore trough to dig south and bring in some significant rains for the weekend. Does not seem too likely. Yet.
Trending toward a more May like pattern over the next ten days. These cool and wet troughs should be shifting to the north soon.
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Friday, May 7, 2010
A Little Excitement Possible Early Next Week
Today is nice. As should be Saturday. Expect Sunday to be cooler, with increasing clouds, some winds and a chance of showers by evening. Showers should be mostly light, with the heaviest in the north bay, and mostly abating by the Monday morning commute. A second stronger storm should descend on the area by late Monday and into Tuesday. This storm will have more wind and rain, but may remains north of the Bay Area, with showers brushing through Marin. Still, if this system digs another 100 miles further south, we could have fairly strong, if brief, rains.
After that, the week returns to warmer and calmer weather. Highs should be back in the low 70s by Tuesday. Daily highs to increase as the week progresses with possible 80s by Friday.
Long Term models are suggesting a number of large troughs running into the Pacific North West next week and the following week. These progressively dig further south with each system So there remains a chance of rain into mid and late May.
Some snow in the mountains early next week. I have heard the corn has been epic this past week. A nice south swell started hitting the central coast yesterday, although a strong north west flow is ripping apart most breaks outside of Santa Cruz. Love Apple Farm is still selling tomatoes (now in 1 gallon pots).
I'll try to keep ya'll posted if there is any interesting weather happening, but as we roll into summer, it is mostly sun, sun, sun. Unless you live in SF, then you can expect cool, damp and foggy.
After that, the week returns to warmer and calmer weather. Highs should be back in the low 70s by Tuesday. Daily highs to increase as the week progresses with possible 80s by Friday.
Long Term models are suggesting a number of large troughs running into the Pacific North West next week and the following week. These progressively dig further south with each system So there remains a chance of rain into mid and late May.
Some snow in the mountains early next week. I have heard the corn has been epic this past week. A nice south swell started hitting the central coast yesterday, although a strong north west flow is ripping apart most breaks outside of Santa Cruz. Love Apple Farm is still selling tomatoes (now in 1 gallon pots).
I'll try to keep ya'll posted if there is any interesting weather happening, but as we roll into summer, it is mostly sun, sun, sun. Unless you live in SF, then you can expect cool, damp and foggy.
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Welcome to May, Sunny and Warm for Now.
Wow. What a start to May. I spent the weekend up at the Sierra Crest and there is an amazing amount of snow out there. Best coverage I have seen in years, and this week is looking to have an epic corn cycle. If you are at all interested in ski touring, this is the season to get it on. And the big lines are still filled in, so you can send it. Just remeber to wear plenty of sunblock and chap stick. Oh, my burnt lips.
With excellent weather this past weekend and forecast for this week, it may be a surprise to here what the charts have in store for us. Sun and warmth should be consistent down in the Bay Area this week, with a slight dip in high temperatures on Tuesday. Almost unnoticeable. In the hills and mountains there is a strong wind today and tomorrow's highs should be 10-15F cooler than today. Temperatures to rebound by Friday, with slight warming each day.
Today is a bit breezy through the local hills and out on the ocean. For you surfers, expect those NW winds to blow strong all week (strongest through Wednesday). So, plenty of chop and a little building wind swell. Hey, it is spring. What did you expect. Not much wind to be felt in the lower and protected elevations.
The big news is the chance for rain and showers as early as this Sunday. Not all models are in agreement, especially with timing of this potential system. Just because it is May, don't mean nothing. Expect the chance of a moderate system to drop out of the Gulf of Alaska as early as mid day Sunday and lasting trough Wednesday. Best bet is for sporadic showers to start late Monday and last through Tuesday afternoon. All and all, I'd expect no more than a 1/2 inch of rain. Just the right amount to keep those mountain bike trails smooth and tacky.
Water year is looking, well variable. The California Nevada River Forecast Center has their April Outlook available. This was published on April 8th, so a lot has changed since then. The May report is expected out soon. Regardless, this is the best season we have had in years, and at least has made a dent in our shortages.
To wrap it up - beautiful through at least Saturday. Then increasing clouds and chance of rain through mid next week. Most likely, sun to follow. Long term - chance of storms to persist into early June. We may even get enough to keep the hills green and the dust down.
With excellent weather this past weekend and forecast for this week, it may be a surprise to here what the charts have in store for us. Sun and warmth should be consistent down in the Bay Area this week, with a slight dip in high temperatures on Tuesday. Almost unnoticeable. In the hills and mountains there is a strong wind today and tomorrow's highs should be 10-15F cooler than today. Temperatures to rebound by Friday, with slight warming each day.
Today is a bit breezy through the local hills and out on the ocean. For you surfers, expect those NW winds to blow strong all week (strongest through Wednesday). So, plenty of chop and a little building wind swell. Hey, it is spring. What did you expect. Not much wind to be felt in the lower and protected elevations.
The big news is the chance for rain and showers as early as this Sunday. Not all models are in agreement, especially with timing of this potential system. Just because it is May, don't mean nothing. Expect the chance of a moderate system to drop out of the Gulf of Alaska as early as mid day Sunday and lasting trough Wednesday. Best bet is for sporadic showers to start late Monday and last through Tuesday afternoon. All and all, I'd expect no more than a 1/2 inch of rain. Just the right amount to keep those mountain bike trails smooth and tacky.
Water year is looking, well variable. The California Nevada River Forecast Center has their April Outlook available. This was published on April 8th, so a lot has changed since then. The May report is expected out soon. Regardless, this is the best season we have had in years, and at least has made a dent in our shortages.
To wrap it up - beautiful through at least Saturday. Then increasing clouds and chance of rain through mid next week. Most likely, sun to follow. Long term - chance of storms to persist into early June. We may even get enough to keep the hills green and the dust down.
Sunday, April 25, 2010
Another Fab Weekend Comes To An End, More Rain For Mid Week
Today's weather is expected to be even warmer than Saturday. Already at 8AM it is over 40F at 7800'. Not to shabby. Beach weather down at the coast is expected after an early morning fog burns off.
Temperatures begin to cool off on Monday with increased winds and clouds. Slight chance of rain in the evening and likely by Tuesday morning. Tuesday's high are to be 15-20 degrees cooler than today. Rains may be very heavy, but it currently looks like the most severe weather is to stay just north of San Francisco. South Bay can expect up to a 1/2 inch of rain through the next week. Northern Marin and Sonoma can expect much more. The Sierra Crest should receive between 2 and 2 1/2 inches of precip - or 2 plus feet of snow above 8000'. Snow levels may lower to 3000' during brief periods of the storm. Little to no accumulation at that elevation. Crazy April for sure.
After Tuesday , the weather is to remain showery through Wednesday night. Some clearing by Thursday, but to remain cloudy and cool. Sun returns for Friday and the weekend, and temperatures warm a bit (around 70F for a high). Looks like another nice book end.
Water year is looking better. At April 1st, snow pack in the Sierra was below normal. Forecasters recently went out after this last storm to re-calculate. We are now at 138% of normal, which bodes well for our reservoirs. Speaking of which, Lexington is looking very very full, and may be near its limit. And this next storm may help those reservoirs lacking water just to our north.
Currently, the charts show a high pressure attempting to take control by next week. Climatological data supports this forecast (and would have done so a month ago). It is much more typical for us to be high and dry this time of year, with an occasional system breaking through. Still, the charts do not suggest we can stop thinking about possible rains. A slight shift in the axis of the next weather bubble, and we are back into potential rains.
Expect a late season this year on summer produce. The farmers are having a hard time getting out in their fields to plow. The tractors are not loving the wet ground and mud. So prices may be high and supplies late on beans, tomatoes, peppers, eggplants, potatoes and more. Be prepared. OTOH, I hear that fruit and nut trees may have a good year.
Temperatures begin to cool off on Monday with increased winds and clouds. Slight chance of rain in the evening and likely by Tuesday morning. Tuesday's high are to be 15-20 degrees cooler than today. Rains may be very heavy, but it currently looks like the most severe weather is to stay just north of San Francisco. South Bay can expect up to a 1/2 inch of rain through the next week. Northern Marin and Sonoma can expect much more. The Sierra Crest should receive between 2 and 2 1/2 inches of precip - or 2 plus feet of snow above 8000'. Snow levels may lower to 3000' during brief periods of the storm. Little to no accumulation at that elevation. Crazy April for sure.
After Tuesday , the weather is to remain showery through Wednesday night. Some clearing by Thursday, but to remain cloudy and cool. Sun returns for Friday and the weekend, and temperatures warm a bit (around 70F for a high). Looks like another nice book end.
Water year is looking better. At April 1st, snow pack in the Sierra was below normal. Forecasters recently went out after this last storm to re-calculate. We are now at 138% of normal, which bodes well for our reservoirs. Speaking of which, Lexington is looking very very full, and may be near its limit. And this next storm may help those reservoirs lacking water just to our north.
Currently, the charts show a high pressure attempting to take control by next week. Climatological data supports this forecast (and would have done so a month ago). It is much more typical for us to be high and dry this time of year, with an occasional system breaking through. Still, the charts do not suggest we can stop thinking about possible rains. A slight shift in the axis of the next weather bubble, and we are back into potential rains.
Expect a late season this year on summer produce. The farmers are having a hard time getting out in their fields to plow. The tractors are not loving the wet ground and mud. So prices may be high and supplies late on beans, tomatoes, peppers, eggplants, potatoes and more. Be prepared. OTOH, I hear that fruit and nut trees may have a good year.
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