Trajectories.

The angle at which these storms come onshore will make a big difference in how the rain falls.  Well, today's system came in at the right angle for us to get some rain.  Nearly an inch has fallen already on the west side.  Enough to get some minor urban flooding.  Water was pooling up in the streets this morning.  And it also has kept the air quite cool.  Still not above 50F at 10AM this morning.  Up in the Sierra snow is falling again, but the bulk of this system is pushing down through the central valley.  Rain has lightened up to showers already, and we should see a bit of clearing this afternoon.  There is already a bit more light in the sky.  Next system will begin to impact us later tomorrow, but that does not mean we won't see more rain before then.  Continued cold today, and tonight.

Snow piles up in the Sierra.  Finally.

Sometime tomorrow a much strong system will come ashore just to the north of us.  This system will be tapping into moisture from the tropics.  This is what the rainy season around here is all about.  Be prepared for some wet weather this weekend.  This one will also be quite a bit warmer, with rain falling in Lake Tahoe.  With luck, the resorts above 7000 feet will be getting snow.  Rain arrives on Friday, and builds overnight.  Saturday morning will be warm, with temperatures pushing to the upper 50s by afternoon.  Heavy rain continues into Sunday, which will be even warmer.  Snow levels may rise up above 8000 feet.  Sunday evening, cooler air moves in, and rain continues.  Monday morning will be cooler, with snow levels back around lake level, and rain backing off.  Dry by mid day.  Or something like that.  Temps back up into the 60s by Tuesday.  We might even see some sunshine.

The AR hits hard just north of us.

Heavy rain event now expected with some confidence for this coming weekend.  Over eight inches of liquid is expected along the coastal range just north of Point Arena.  Much less down here, but still a copious rain event.  Even by normal standards.  This is expected to be the strongest storm since December of 2012.  Back in that month, we had several of these storms in a row, starting around Veteran's Day.  So, currently, this is a singular system, and our ground is very, very dry.  Some run off is expected, but flooding is unlikely.  At this time.  We could have more upstream.  Wouldn't that be nice?  As for now, we have a smaller system to look at first.

This is my last one of the pre snow valley.  Chair 10.  Opening soon?  With another foot coming, we can only hope.

Get out and enjoy this morning, if you can.  Clouds will increase this afternoon and evening.  Showers may develop overnight, but the heaviest rain will show during the day tomorrow.  Almost an inch for the Santa Lucia and Big Sur.  Over a half inch expected locally, with a bit more in the Santa Cruz mountains.  This is a wetter solution than yesterday's.  Still a good ten inches expected along the Sierra Crest near Tahoe.  The skiing is just getting better and better.  Friday does not look like it will have a chance to develop much sun, with on system moving out, and another on its way in.  In fact, we could even see showers during the day.  The big one upstream could bring rain through the entire weekend.  We will take a look at this one more tomorrow.  For now, get out and enjoy that sunshine.  It might be a few days.

Waffles for breakfast, lunch and dinner.

It has been tough watching the forecast model runs.  It seems like the set up for the next week keeps on waffling with every six hour run.  So, really, it is a guessing game at this point.  So, I thought I'd play.  So here is my guess.  High cloud cover was thicker than expected today.  That north west breeze was cool, and it never really felt all that warm today.  Cold air is in place.  Cold tonight.  If you are up in the hills a bit, say Felton and the such, you could see temperatures dipping down to freezing, and a bit of frost in the morning.  Wednesday will stay in the 50s, although it may be a bit warmer that the past two days with the impending storm pull warm air in underneath it.  Clouds are likely.  Showers will start impacting the northern coast around night fall.  Rain moves into Santa Cruz overnight.  Cloud cover keeps overnight lows in the 40s.

Red Cliffs on MLK Day.  Almost looks November.  That is all changing.

Right now it looks like the heaviest precipitation will fall Thursday midday.  About an half inch in the Santa Lucia based on the most current run.  A bit less here, as the mountains help shadow us from this one.  Now, with that said, these models waffle every one.  The 0z run for tomorrow could show something different.  But that is the gist of it.  Clearing overnight Thursday, with Friday being our best bet at sunshine.  Still hanging out in the mid 50s.  Friday night will be another chilly one with the clear sky.  Another system will be hot on the tails of Thursday's, with an atmospheric river setting up to hit the west coast.  The exact location, hell, even the general location of this AR is proving hard for the models to get a grasp on.  It will hit somewhere between Washington State, and San Francisco.  Most likely it will be slightly north of us.  Lassen will get plastered with six or more feet of snow.  Maybe.

Anyway, expect Saturday to break chilly, with some clouds.  Clouds increase during the day, and rain to begin in the evening.  It could be quite heavy at times.  Again, the most current run has the hose aimed at the Mendocino coast with three plus inches forecast for the system.  If that is what happens, we will see moderate showers through the day Sunday, with warmer air temperature.  Perhaps as warm as the low 60s.  Overnight lows rise back into the mid 40s.  Currently, the heaviest rainfall is expected Sunday night.  Rain likely continuing Monday morning during the commute, and letting up during the day.  Currently it looks like sun returns for Tuesday and Wednesday, with a high in the mid 60s.  Maybe more rain for Thursday.  But more on that later.  Right now we will be focusing on the potential three day rain event this week.

Still a whole bunch of 'if' in this forecast.  If the AR shifts a few hundred miles north, we will likely see light showers, or even no showers, and fairly warm (mid to upper 60s) air.  If the AR shifts a few hundred miles south, we will be cooler (upper 50s) and very wet.  Like in several inches of rain fall wet.  Right now, we are right in the middle, and should expect about an inch of rain from this event.  The good news is it currently looks like northern portions of the state will received a bunch of water.  But, of course, we still need a whole bunch more.

Quick view.  Cloudy and cool Wednesday.  Cold rain Thursday.  Cool, and some clouds on Friday.  Warmer on Saturday, but more clouds. Rain likely later in the day.  Even warmer on Sunday, with rain showers.  Rain to start the day Monday, but with some clearing.  Tuesday and Wednesday are warmer with decent sun.  But, we are in a very dynamic pattern right now, and will continue for the next few weeks.

That was nice, eh? More to come.

Right now it looks like that for the current week we will go back and forth between chances of rain.  Yesterday's system came way more onshore than expected.  Rain not only fell along the coast, but in the interior, and the Sierra south of Tahoe received a few inches.  It is still showering down along the Mammoth Crest this morning.  FInally some water for the state.  We need much more.  With a little bit of luck, more is on the way.  Today, Monday should be mostly sunny here in Santa Cruz, with a high in the mid 50s.  The clear sky will drop us into the upper 30s tonight.  More of the same tomorrow.By Wednesday, another system will push through the high pressure.  This time coming from the north.  We should see an increase in clouds, and slightly warmer air.  While, technically, we have a chance of rain by evening, and more so on Thursday, it looks like this one will scrape by to our north.  It will bring in more cold air.  Friday looks sunny, and mid 50s.  Then we see the chance for something more significant.

Speaking of significant, my very unscientific rain gauge in the front yard collected over a half inch of rain from the past few days.  The bulk of that from yesterday.  Personally, I'm not sure what it was like in town yesterday.  I thought about posting up a gut reaction to the heavy cloud cover I saw when I was getting into my car at 4AM on Sunday.  Alas, I was headed up to take a look at the snow, and had not the time.  My apologies.  It sure looked like it was going to rain.  What I can tell you know is that we now have a start to a snow pack.  We were headed back to an area called Super Bowl.  And we were denied, just like the Broncos.  A good portion of our route was just too rocky, but then again, our route was not along a low tide zone.  So, we skinned and boot packed  our way up a couloir and around back to wind exposed bowl.  The skiing was decent, but we found the best snow in wind protected trees.  Coverage is still thin, but the right zones are now skiing very well.  With additional snow this week, things could be really fun next weekend.  The big question is whether we will be seeing sunshine, or dumpage.

There are more than a few groomers open at Kirkwood these days.

A large scale low pressure is developing in eastern Gulf of Alaska.  It will grow and intensify, before starting to move southeast later on Friday.  It will be well to our north to begin, but it is moving towards us.  As of right now it looks like we will see mostly sun Friday evening and into Saturday morning.  Or high pressure will do its best to keep this storm to our north.  Several models are suggesting that it might not be able to stop this one.  Anyway, it is still too far away to tell for sure.  If you are going up to the Sierra this weekend, start being prepared to deal with storm conditions.  Several folks had white knuckles and a real hard time getting home yesterday when a lot more snow fell than expected.  Anyway, chance for heavy rain moving in Saturday night or Sunday.  What makes this one real interesting is the large scale low should stay in place most of next week (10th-15thish), rotating storms into the west coast.  This could spell out a very wet period for us, similar to early December of 2012.  Nothing super epics, say like March of 2012, but significant.  I hope the hose keeps going through the 22nd, as we will be out of town that week, and I hate missing the 70s and sun here in town.

Anyway, sun through Wednesday morning, then clouds with a chance of rain.  Clearing on Friday.  Cool all week.  Clouds maybe developing Saturday, with maybe heavy rain Sunday.  Low Pressure develops in the Gulf of Alaska next week, either driving torrents of rain upon us, or, pumping up our high pressure again, keeping us high and dry.  While I love sun, I pray for that rain to maybe get us a little bit more back on track.