One hit wonder?

The potential for significant rainfall and mountain snow over the next week is decreasing.  Was the super washer of last weekend all we get out of the month?  I sure hope not.  I'd like another number one song please.  Even if it is not as wet as the season debut.  Before we get into all that, get outside first.  It is gorgeous out there today.  The sun is shining.  The birds are singing.  It is warming up to the upper 60s.  It is quite nice.  Tomorrow will start with a bit more morning fog, which will keep it a touch cooler, but we should still reach into the mid 60s.  Then some cooler air moves in as a storm tries to dive south out of the Gulf.  We still see a chance for some rain here on the coast, but with the storm still further north, and our back to the Santa Cruz Mountains, we may not actually get more than a drizzle in town Saturday night, into Sunday morning.

This guy charged me pretty hard when we were walking along the other side of the pond.  

 As of this morning's run it looks like we might get brief passing showers and Tahoe a few inches of snow.  It will be cooler with Saturday having a high of just about 60F.  Snow levels could drop down below 4000 feet by Sunday morning, so it will be a great refresh of the slopes.  If you head up for the holiday weekend, the best days look to be Sunday and Monday.  Things clear up down here on Sunday, and it will get quite nice.  Sunshine and mid 60s through Monday.  Could actually be some fun surf on those days with what looks like light morning off shores and mid sized mid period swell.

Storm for next week is looking less wet and weaker as well.  Still a chance for some variety of rain from Tuesday evening through Friday morning.  I'll post up more on that tomorrow or Saturday.  Looks like rain is still in the cards, but with fewer and lighter showers.  Later runs may push the whole thing further south again.  Time will tell.  And it would be nice, as with a direct hit we could get two or more feet of cold powder snow.

Yeah, so no seventy.

Truth be hold, I was feeling hopeful.  You know, for a taste of what we had a few weeks back.  Not that I want continuing drought, but it is nice when it warms up between storms.  Especially if you are not going to be skiing for a while.  But alas, that pesky fog, and some cloud cover, will keep us relatively cool.  That rain is well north of us.  But it like a hose again.  Aimed well at the northern portion of the state.  So that is good, as in more water.  We climb to the mid 60s today, and upper 60s Thursday, but you will be hard pressed to find a 70F reading in town tomorrow.  Fog will continue to linger along the coast this week.  It has been looking thick over toward the east side and Aptos the past few days.  Maybe less fog by the weekend, and another potential rain system breaks through the high pressure.  This one coming from the north west and bringing cooler air.

This a nice walk on a cloudy day.  Even handles a drizzle quite well.  At the best motorhome park that I know of. 

Still not that much of a chance of rain from this one in Santa Cruz, but we could see passing showers early morning on Sunday.  Thursday still looks the warmest with cooling through Saturday.  Highs to drop to the low 60s by then.  As the storm sweeps inland, it could pull in slightly warmer, wetter air.  Tahoe could get a nice few inch topping of colder snow to refresh the feet of cement that fell last week.  Cold set up for a nice holiday week of skiing.  Still, this thing is looking to be too far north to give us much water.  Monday and Tuesday will warm up a bit and high pressure will build and clear most of the clouds.  Big news is the maybe big, cold, wet(ish) storm that is possibly upstream.  Remember, the models have been all over the place lately.  They did forecast this past weekend, but not very accurately when it came to the timing of details within the storm.  But it was a huge, multi day storm, so, it was kind of law of averages thing.  But it did predict quite well the large scale features of the storm, such as total water, start and end times.  So, it looks like we could get a nice large low pressure developing int he Gulf of Alaska swinging cold rain systems right on top of us starting mid day Tuesday and lasting through early evening Thursday.  Will watch this one.

Was gonna go check the surf today, but tweaked the back a bit when I went to pick up my son in a shop this morning.  Took the 16A home.  Stayed on past our stop, when up the hill, circled campus, and go dropped off back at the bottom.  Little dude was stocked as he ate his lunch.  Anyway, cancelled surf check.  I hear there is some small surf, best early, when the winds are light and you can get in at the exposed coast.  Mid period stuff.  Not slop, but nice razor sharp lines either.   Looks like something more substantial is coming for the weekend, but if that storm comes across us, winds could be an issue.  Hell, if I could go this evening, I would.  No sign of returning to the awesome pattern we had back in January.  But that is a good thing.  The current pattern brings water, and more potential for water.

Put a dent in it.

Barely, but a dent none the less.  Portions of the state got plenty of water.  Portions got none.  I was out of town, so I can't really say what it was like in town.  It started to rain mid morning on Friday.  By early afternoon, we were on the road and on our way up to Kirkwood.  I can say it snow a lot, and that it even rained a bit at 7800 feet.  But basically it snowed a lot.  About six to eight feet of heavy, wet, dense snow.  This will be good for the skiers, and it will be good for the water reserve.  The northern portion of the state did very well, and some areas received more in this past week than they did in all of 2013.  So, what is on the way?  Actually, we look like we are going to have a fairly nice week of fair weather, with a few chances of storms poking through.  And we could have some improving surf conditions on the way with a touch of swell.  Looks nice, actually.

It snowed.  A bunch.  People are jumping for joy.  PM Gear Kusala Pows will get you there.

Tuesday it will be fairly warm, with a low in the mid 40s and warming up to the mid to upper 60s.  Some clouds aloft as a storms moves through to our north.  Actually, this is another atmospheric river, although a good bit weaker, and also pointed a good bit more to our north.  While this will pour water into OR and the extreme northern portions of the state, we might get a nice mini bubble setting up on us.  So, yeah, that means warm air, and some off shore mornings.  Wednesday should push into the upper 60s..  Morning off shores with a slight afternoon sea breeze will welcome a head high (maybe a touch bigger in the morning) westerly mid period swell.  Could be fun.  Thursday also looks nice, with the air a bit warmer and the surf a bit smaller.  By Friday we see a bit of a cool off with another system pushing cold air and clouds south.  Right now it looks like the rain will stay to our north with this system too, with more sun and warmth by Sunday.    But watch out for this one.  It looks like it could punch through the high pressure.  If that were to happen, we could see some rain sweep through on Sunday, which would also keep us cooler.  Mild looking to star next week.  But, several models, for several runs, suggest at a large scale, cold trough setting up about the middle of next week.  Could be another decent round of rain.  Not likely to be nearly as much water for the state as this last system, but this could be what we need to get the snow down to the lake.

So, in short, a decent week.  Warming through Thursday.  Hey, think we can hit 70F?  Cooler into the weekend.  Chance for cool rain Sunday, or sun and warming.  Looks like a quick thing regardless.  Maybe something big to monitor around the 20th.

Wet, wet, wet weekend ahead.

Just a short post today, as I prep the car, family, and myself for a drive into the blizzard.  More water in the forecast this morning, and rain has already filled back in along the coast.  We are on the southern edge of this thing here in Santa Cruz, but we could still be looking at two or more inches of water.  Even more than that is expected in the Santa Cruz Mountains.  Be prepared to deal with downed power lines and that sort of mayhem.  With no storm like this since December of 1012, you never know what tree is going to falls once that soil saturates.  Expect some minor flooding, especially in urban zones that can't handle a bunch of runoff.  Part of the north interior portion of the state are expecting over ten inches of rain, or snow equivalent.  Thank you very much.  Snow levels are currently around 5500 feet, but will rise up above 7000 feet during the weekend.  Maybe higher.  We could be up in the (very) low 60s here on the coast.  Things will cool off again Sunday night, dropping the snow level back down below 6000 feet.  So that means we will be seeing plenty of water flowing out of the foot hills the next few days.  We get a break Tuesday, with low to mid 60s and sun.  Looks like another round could be on the way as soon as Wednesday or Thursday.  I'll post up more after tis weekend.  For now, I'm going to go enjoy the storm ride.

Snow ghost will be aplenty this week.