Dumping and thumping.

So, yesterday morning a band or rain came through that lasted briefly.  That was why the sky was so dark. Guess I should have looked at the radar, but unfortunately we don't have any stations directly to our west.  Anyway, sun broke in Santa Cruz soon after, and it was a quite nice, if very chilly day.  Clouds filled back in around sunset, and rain developed overnight.  By daybreak it was dumping, both on the coast, and in the hills.  Snow levels down to 3k.  By late morning, Santa Cruz stopped with the rain, and the sun was out for the 1:30 opening bell of the Farmer's Market.  Perfect timing.  Now clouds are starting to filter back in.

Clouds pouring through near the top of the Carson Spur.

This thing is not over yet.  We faired pretty well so far.  On the West Slope, this storm is hitting hard.  Already, since yesterday evening, a fresh foot plus has fallen along the crest.  More north of Route 50.  A second wave is preparing to come onshore later today.  But we should see rain return to the Bay Area.  With some luck, that will happen after the morning commute.  This band is strong, but not quite as strong as last nights.  Moderate rain and strong winds should last through the morning hours on Thursday.  The rain will trail behind, but we could see clearing tomorrow, like we did today.  And behind this next wave of cold rain is just a nice high pressure and sunshine building.  Plan for a nice evening stroll tomorrow night, but remember to bundle up.  It is not warm yet.

Snow continues on Thursday.  By evening, when things begin to taper off, we could be looking at 40-50 inches at the Sierra Crest.  This thing still looks to be on track with those numbers.  Most resorts will see from three to six feet of new snow this week come Friday morning.  And the weekend will be sunny and pleasantly warm.  My bet is some crowds will show up, so hit those slopes early.  You don't want to be standing around in lines, buying tickets and renting gear at ten in the morning as more and more people pack on the mountain.  And if you know your hill, head out to the last terrain that opened this week.   that is where you'll likely find the best fluff.  Finally, stick to the shade once thinks begin to heat up.  That fresh powder will mank up quickly in the March sun.

Peak 9795' and Melissa Corey Peak crown over Fawn Ridge, Look Out Vista, Thunder Saddle and Norm's Nose at Kirkwood, California.

Also today and tomorrow, something to watch out for, is another sizable swell impacting the coast.  Things might begin to clean up by the end of the week for decent surf, but right now, it is mostly going to be some wild ride storm surf.  Makes for a fun walk along West Cliff if you don't mind too much bluster.  But you may want to wait for the turn toward the better if you only get one day to hang on the beach.  Down here on the coast we are still looking forward to some fine weather.  It won't warm up quite like it did last week with multiple days in the mid 70s.  But it will be a beautiful run of weather once again.  Friday will warm up a bit, but that cool air will take a while to warm.  By Saturday the trend will be set.  I'm pegging Sunday for the winner.

More rain tonight and Thursday.  Plenty of wind.  Clearing and warming on Friday.  Sun and almost hot for the weekend.  A little cooler next week, with some chance of rain from storms that look to stay to our north.

Winter visits Central California this week.

Cold, breezy and wet.  That about sums it up for the first half of this week.  Santa Cruz was spared rain for the most part yesterday.  We did get a little in the very early morning hours of Monday.  Then a ring of clouds formed leaving a whole of sun over Santa Cruz.  Heavy clouds stayed to our south, impacting the Monterey and Big Sur areas.  The real brunt of the storm slipped over the entire coast range zone and slammed into the West Slope.  Cold air, combined with good orographic lift and some moisture dumped over 6 inches around the lake.  Kirkwood reported 16" totals this morning, and Mt. Rose, benefiting from some lake effect received two feet of new snow.  If you are out and about this week, be careful.  Under all that blower are the rocks, stumps, logs and such that were starting to get exposed during last weeks warm spell.

Chair 6 and Wagonwheel Bowl at low tide.  Kirkwood.  Heading toward a fuller tide by the weekend.

Today, Tuesday is looking a bit more placid.  A layer of clouds sits along the coast, but the sun could have a chance of peaking out today.  So says the forecasts, but looking at that sky, we could see rain before noon today.  And it will remain cold with a high in the mid 50s.  Up in the Sierra, cold, clouds and very light flurries will be the name of the game, with perhaps a few glimpses at the sun.  The real news if for Wednesday and Thursday.  The storms for mid week have been upgraded with each run of the models.  You begin to wonder if they are over stating.  But it now looks like the the air will not really warm up all that much, so these storms continue to be cold.  What is impressive is the water amounts forecasted.  Around the Bay Area we are expecting about an inch of rain from late tonight through Thursday afternoon.  On Wednesday the rain will be the heaviest and most consistent.  on the north coast and in the Tahoe area, we are expecting about 2.5 inches of precipitaion.  With temperatures at night in the teens and in the low twenties during the day, that will mean two to four feet of new snow. My guess is we have over 50 inches of new snow since Sunday along the crest by Friday morning.  That is a good week by any years standard.  An excellent week by this years.

Sierra Crest, looking west toward an approaching storm.  It is about time these rocks get a snowy blanket.

And the news just keeps on getting better.  Friday things begin to clear up.  Sun and mid 60s for Friday with 70 expected in Santa Cruz by Sunday.  That will be the peak of it, with mid 60s and a few clouds starting off the next week.  So, for you fair weathered skiers, or just the weekend warrior, you can expect sunny skies and 45F at 7000 feet.  Sure, temperatures that warm in late February are not that awesome for the snow, but you will be starting off with some very light density skier packed powder.  Should be pretty darn good in the resorts, and in great condition on northerly slopes in the BC.  Be sure to check out the Sierra Avalanche Center advisory for more details on the snow pack.

A break today.  Continues cold through Thursday.  Heavy rain on Wednesday.  Lighter, but still moderate rain starts off Thursday morning and breaks up by the afternoon.  Clouds clear.  Friday will warm up a bit.  Very nice for the weekend.  Sunshine and 70F.  A bit cooler, but fair to start next week.

Snow Capped Peaks.

Weathered tree near Carson Pass, Sierra Nevada, California.

Well, "capped" might be too strong of a word, but the mountains around San Jose and Monterey Bay could get a nice dusting of snow as early as Monday morning.  So, just in case you can't figure it out on your own, that means it is going to be cold around these parts tomorrow.  You can already feel that cold air filtering into the area this evening.  It is going to be cold the next few nights with lows about 40F right on the coast, and colder as you move inland and up the hills.  Snow levels will drop to around 2000 feet, before beginning to climb back up to more reasonable levels mid week.  Monday and Tuesday will be chilly, with a chance of highs staying below the 50F mark in some areas.  Of course, urban zones will be the warmest and higher valleys in the coastal mountains being coldest.  It sure will feel like winter for a few days.

Light rain continues on Monday with clearing on Tuesday.  Nothing impressive precipitation wise.  Just maybe a tenth of an inch of rain total.  Best chances for precipitation are actually south of us along the Big Sur coast.  Tuesday night a slightly warmer, and much wetter system will move into the area.  This one is still nothing too impressive, but compared to Monday, it will be quite wet.  Widespread rain last through the day on Wednesday.  A third system will sweep through late Wednesday into Thursday morning.  Maybe some rain left for the morning commute.  After that, things dry and warm up.  Mid to high 50s Thursday.  Sun and 60F for Friday.  The weekend could see some sweet weather with mid 60s and plenty of sun.  Of course, that is based on another storm not driving down and hitting us on Sunday.  More on that in a few days.

So, in short, some cold nasty weather for the next few days.  Please be careful out on those roads, and some areas in the hills could see ice and snow.  Also, Tuesday evening and Wednesday could get quite blustery with 30 knot winds through the valley.  Storms break late Wednesday or early Thursday.  Warming trend to follow with sun in the forecast.  Could be a spectacular weekend.

Step one. Put a hole in the block.

That is right.  The blocking high that has been prevalent this winter is about to take its first real punch in a while.  The storms of the previous week were really just slippery guys, sneaking around and dropping us with a bit of snow.  A lot of luck in those scenarios to get more than a few inches.  Good probability for significant change in the weather pattern.  Starting Saturday as cold air begins to seep south.  By very early Monday morning a pocket of very cold air will be sitting just off the coast, to the west of Santa Cruz.  As that chill moves on shore, the day will feel cold.  And a light drizzle could form along the coastal slopes.  In fact, this light precip could move as far east as the Sierra.  Still, not much than a cold, damp day.  Or some flurries up about 4000 feet.

Desolation Wilderness.  Sierra Nevada. California.  Bluebird days offer the best views.

That cold air is to stay put for at least a few days.  Another wave will come through the area early on Wednesday morning, as it looks now.  This one is to be a bit stronger and carry a little more punch.  But it will not be quite as cold.  But it is not like things are warming up much.  High 50s or maybe 60F on Wed.  The rest of the work week dry and cool.  Low 60s and partly cloudy to sunny skies.  Another storm is out the back though, and we could see more rain and a deeper trough develop by next weekend.    More on all this excitement to bring in the new month as we get a but closer.