Santa Cruz is Going Off.

Sun.  Surf.  No Wind.  Sunsets. Warm.  No Rain.  I tell ya, we have some of the best winter around.  While a good portion of the rest of the country is wet, cold, or both, we are looking pretty fine.  I just got off the plane from Virginia, where the weather was pleasant enough, if a bit crisp.  It was warm when we got home today.  The surf was pumping.  And the sunset was another winner.  You've got to love it here.  I really enjoyed my trip, but it always nice to come home.  And today delivered.  Thing is, Santa Cruz delivered all week while I was gone.  And it will deliver again all next week.  Again, while I'm gone.  And when I come home a few days later, it will still be delivering.  So, when does this all change?



Mid 60s, and little wind.  Some high clouds.  Warmest Sunday.  And again by Thursday.  Nights in the upper 30s.  Looks like it should continue like this through next weekend at least.  Only bummer about this weather, is we really do need to get some water this winter.  GFS keeps brining it to us starting around the 8th or so.  Euro is a touch later.  Been that way for several runs now.  But no one is holding there breath.  Before that, the weather stays pretty much the same.  Another round of swell fills in tomorrow, while what is in the water is still sizable enough to have town breaks looking fun.  Another round arrives Monday, and another Thursday.  Oh, and the wind looks light through the period.  So basically, surf is up.

I'll take a look at the forecast models over the next few days and see if we get some more agreement and consistency as we get closer.  As for now, get out there and seize the day folks.  It is damn awesome out.

High and Dry.

Hey folks.  I'm headed out of town in the morning to go visit family.  Too bad, as the weather is ideal mid winter bliss.  Cool, even crisp, mornings in the upper 30s.  Afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s.  Slight warming trend through Christmas Day.  Nestled up against the south facing cinder block wall in the CostCo parking lot, it could top 70F.  Not bad for December 25th.  And the surf will be pumping this week as well, as a new NW long period mid size swell peaks on Monday and tapers through the first half of the week.   Another shows as a gift from Saint Nick.  Slightly cooler into the weekend.  Sunshine prevails, other than just enough cloud cover to make the early winter sunsets pop.

The weather outside is not frightful.

Quick update this morning.  GFS has us dry, with almost a quarter inch (say 2 inches of snow) along the Tahoe peaks.  Almost a half inch for L.A., and even more for the Socal mountains.  Mammoth could get up to three quarters of an inch of precipitation.  Not a lot going south, but the bulk of this will be well south and east of us.  Feels like rain this morning though.  I think that is just the warm still air pooling before the cold north west breeze develops.  But it is moist.  Still a slight chance for rain tonight and tomorrow.Could be a good few days to get some errands done, or find something to do inside.  We might hit up the Monterey Bay Aquarium Thursday.  We like to park for free out along the coastal bike path, and walk back to the aquarium while looking for seals, otters and birds.  Memberships are a great holiday gift to give to a family (I should know, we have received this gift for two years in a row).  And tax deductible, for you finance savvy folks out there.  In April, or May, the Tentacles exhibition will be open.  Another thing to do inside, starting this Friday, is the train exhibit at the Santa Cruz Museum of Art and History.  If your young one, or you yourself, love a good model train set up, this is the thing for you.  And it is free, but, hey, membership here is less expensive, and supports a good place.  We built snow flakes there recently.

Autumn storm brings color to the sky.  Hard to see, but that was a double rainbow, dude....

Okay, likely no rain.  But still plan for a drizzle, or cool ominous clouds, at least.  Clearer and warmer Friday.  Weekend looks fine.  Could see another warm up.

Looking mostly dry. Mostly.

I wanted to wait till this morning to get a better feel for the trend this week.  On Sunday, the GFS shifted to a much wetter, and a touch cooler, solution.  Since then it has been slowly backing off from that toward a drier, if not dry, solution.  Now we are two days out, so lets take a closer look at it.  Pleasant day today.  Not quite as warm as yesterday, but still quite nice.  Speaking of yesterday, if you were watching TV at sunset, you were doing it wrong.  One of those magical evenings out there.  I was lucky enough to be in the water along West Cliff when dark slowly settled in.  Such an absolutely beautiful late autumn evening.  Upper 60s today in the best corners of town, with a thin high haze, and maybe some low fog along the water.  That fog could fill in tonight, as the winds are basically calm out there.  Wednesday will start off quite mild in the low to mid 40s.  But it won't warm up much, as a cold north west breeze develops through the day.  Highs stay in the 50s.

Stealing one of my wife's pics.  Persimmons, UCSC Campus Farm.  

So, there is a pretty solid swell running right now.  At least solid for this anemic season.  And with these calm conditions, the surf is breaking really nicely.  Should be another solid day today.  As the swell backs off, and the wind kicks up, the conditions will deteriorate.  But not to worry.  We will get some big windswell mid week.  As the weather calms late in the week, more small mid period swell arrives.  By next week, it could be big again.  And it looks to stay rideable through next week.  Finally, maybe the season has started up.

So the weather calms.  Thursday could be a stormy day, with some wind and clouds.  We could even see a bit of rain, but it does not look likely at this point.  The Sierra Crest still might squeeze out a few inches of snow. But it is mostly only going to bring that colder air, with lows back in the 30s and the highs back in the 50s.  Luckily, it will not quite last like the last bought of cold, as high pressure quickly builds and pumps back in the warm air.  Not like yesterday warm, but warm.  Low to mid 60s starting Saturday.  And no signs of cooling or storms in the mid term.  Bubble of high could keep us dry through the year.  If you collect your own rain water, you should be conserving right now.  Until winter starts, we really can count on anything.