Brief chance for rain tonight. Warming trend on tap.

Winter is often the best time of year here in Santa Cruz County.  The heavy seemingly permanent marine layer is gone, and if we are under a ridge, the days can be quite pleasant.  Toasty even.  That is the pattern we are in now.  Sure, this is not great for snow lovers or for an epic water year, but it does make for some nice beach strolling weather.  It is also helpful to our winter gardens, and often results in good surf.  And we have all of that right now.  Except for a brief chance of rain north of San Francisco tonight, plan for clear skies and increasing daytime highs (as well as a bump in the over night lows).

Draft horses at Wilder Ranch, Santa Cruz.

A storm moving into the PNW today will drag a little bit of moisture through the northern portion of our state tonight.  The Sierra may see some flurries, but not enough to really measure.  In Santa Cruz, we may see some morning fog, but expect that to clear quickly.  A great weekend is again on tap.  Highs along the coast will push into the high 60s.  Our overnight lows will be in the high 30s and low 40s.  Not too shabby for the last days of 2011.  And 2012 will start out even better, with highs pushing 70F the early part of next week.  The peak of the trend looks to be around Tuesday.  With all this great weather on tap, it may be hard to recall that we are in the midst of our rainy season.  Do not fret.  It is on the way.

More birds enjoying the low tide reefs.

Models are starting to pick up on a pattern change.  Teleconnections support the change as well.  For the past month plus, we have been a ridge set up over the west coast, forcing storms to our north and south.  This has been great for sunny days, but if you have been up to Tahoe recently, you may have noticed we are having the driest December on record.  Not really any snow up there in the mountains.  With some luck, that will soon change.  We are still too far out to talk about much in the terms of specifics, but it does look like rain will soon be upon us.  Plan for a change to start as early as late next week, more more likely around the 10th of the month.  If a large scale trough does set up, plan for a week or two of mostly wet weather.  In other words, get out there and enjoy the great New Years.  Happy New Years.