Sun and Warmth; Then More Rain.

It was a really strong start to the month water wise.  I found a gauge that was working here in town this past Thursday and Friday.  We received a little over four inches on the west side, perhaps topping eleven inches of rain since the previous Thursday.  That would be a bit more than was recorded in Scotts Valley.  Regardless, that is a hefty amount of water.  It is one third of our annual average, in just eight days.  That may help make sense out of the road closures due to downed trees, land slides and major sink holes.  Route 35 now is impassable with a major sink hole over 50 feet deep and at least 50 feet across.  The mountain side just literally disappeared.  The San Lorenzo was rushing out of its mouth on Friday.  A sandbar is set up at Cowells.  The waterfalls and creeks are raging.  And that gorgeous sun is out and shining this week.  We will be in the upper 60s today and Monday, with a good chance of hitting 70F on Tuesday.  Nights are crisp in the low 40s.  It dropped to 39F last night in my neighborhood.  Anyway, this weather is going to shift as a major trough sets up on the west coast on Thursday, opening the storm door and allowing colder air to move in.

Route 35 wash out, near Los Combre Rd.  Indefinitely closed.  Photo:  CBS SF

Wednesday will be our transition day, and will begin quite nicely.  The high will be in the mid 60s, just a touch cooler than Tuesday.  Clouds will begin moving in aloft later in the day and into the evening.  It will stay warm Wednesday night with that cloud cover, sticking in the low 50s.  We are still several days out, but lets take a preliminary look at next Thursday and through the weekend.  It looks like we could see some light rain begin next Thursday morning, with moderate rain moving in late in the day and lasting overnight into Friday morning.  An inch or less here in town.  Almost insignificant consider the last two series.  Still, this could be enough to create some commute headaches on Friday morning.  It does look like the rain pushes south by Friday sunrise.  We could have a decent day on Friday. Not sunny, but not rainy.  A brief break though, as the next system pushes ashore Friday afternoon or evening.  This one is going to hit south of us, but we will still get some rain.  It currently looks heaviest overnight, with showery weather persisting during the day Saturday and into Sunday.  From there the breaks look minimal, with a series of storms pushing in Sunday night and Tuesday morning.

We are looking at weather 4 to 12 days out, so confidence in any outcome starts low and decreases as we look further out.  Regardless, it does look like more rain will be coming our way.  The models have backed off a bit in the long term, but we should still plan for several more inches of water this month.  And it is only February.