We've had over two inches of rain in Santa Cruz today, on January 6th. Nearly three since the rain started on Saturday. Sorry I was not here to forecast this thing for you. I was out on the road and far away fro the lap top. What a time that was. Now I'm back, and we have a lot of rain to look forward to. Gusty southwest winds continue tonight, with some more rain possible. Looking at the radar, I suspect the strongest rain is behind us for now. As we wake on Monday, the sky will still be clouds, and we could still see some rain. But chances are much slimmer than today, and what does fall will be much lighter. But the respite is short. The next storm up stream is expected on Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Monday will be cool, with a high of just abut 60F. Rain during the day light hours is most likely earlier in the day. As we move into dusk it should be just cloudy out. Doubt the clouds will clear much for a spectacular sunset, but there is always a chance. Just like with the surf. We have some decent swell in the water, but the winds are making it a victory at sea thing. But time it right and you may find favorable winds for a few hours Monday. Not likely, but it could happen. Just like that fine sunset. Anyway, rain moves back in overnight. Temps drop into the upper 40s. Tuesday looks rainy. And breezy. Not quite like today rainy and breezy. Winds will be gusty, maybe hitting the low 30 mph range, with sustained winds below 25mph. Still, that is some decent wind. Tuesday we could see rain early, but light, increasing in intensity late in the day. It really picks up after dark with a half inch of rain overnight, and around one inch or more total by the time this storm wraps up on Wednesday. We will be looking at four inches total since the rain started on Saturday.
Keep that in mind and expect a lot of run off and urban flooding. Like there was today. While the intensity is going to drop, those grounds got pretty saturated today and won't dry out much between storms. Good news is we should dry out Wednesday night, see breaking clouds on Thursday morning, with some actual sunshine through the day. Might even feel warm. On the other hand, we are looking at storms for Friday late, Sunday and a few into the following week. It could be wet run. Good news for our water year and snow pack. Not so much for the commute crew.
After a slow start to the water year, we had a big November and a two inch below average December (3.66" at De Laveaga). Luckily we are starting out this month fairly wet, and could hit 2/3 of average this week alone, with more storms lined up possibly through mid month. The drought issue is nuanced. The portion of the state in Moderate Drought has drastically increased from 25 to 60%, but we've seen drops in Extreme Drought (18 to 12%) and Exceptional (5 to 2%). The worse drought remains along the Santa Barbara to Ventura coast and areas inland along the northern border. The Sierra and West Slope from Tahoe south to about Sequoia National Park is out of drought completely. Here in Santa Cruz we are listed as Moderate. Keep that in mind as you use water.
Updates throughout this week.
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