Monday, May 24, 2010

Mayuary to Continue

This is the winter that keeps on giving. Record cold this past weekend and a little moisture provide May powder. Amazing.

This week should begin to warm up a little after the weekend cold snap. Still, it won't feel too warm with the daily rain expected. Today, Monday is cool and cloudy, with a chance of light showers and or drizzle. And this may be the best day of the week - a great week to get some work done and save the playing for the weekend.

All week we should have cool high temperatures. It will struggle to get up to 60F. Night will be cold, mostly around 45F, but some low lying valleys may go down into the high 30s. And rain, rain and more rain. We will get the heaviest rain on Tuesday, into Wednesday night and then again on Friday morning. It should remain showery in between and lingering into Friday night. We can expect a 1/2" or so of rain through the week.

Dry and warmer by the weekend, with a warming trend to continue through next Tuesday. Chance for another winter system next Wednesday. Then rising heights and much warmer weather is foretasted for June. The jet stream is supposed to go way north (to where it ought to be) and dry things up. Will believe that when we see it.

We will need to watch how this pans out. The late season cold and wet weather could adversely effect produce production. Try to protect any seedlings you have from the cold with a cover or barrier. I have been out skiing since this cold hit, and have yet to have a chance to look at my garden. At least I do not need to worry that they have dried out.

And for the snow. The Tahoe region received about a foot or so of snow above 8000' since Friday. Another foot plus is expected during this week. Snow levels to remain low, but not quite as low as this past weekend. Snow levels should hover between 5000 and 6000'. Snow and clouds all week should set up for some good powder skiing on Saturday. Donner Ski Ranch is still open until they are out of snow. Of course the back country will be going off. And there is also Mammoth until July 4th.

Tioga and Sonora Pass are now scheduled to open on May 28th at noon (weather permitting). Please drive with caution if going over the crest this weekend. There will be plenty of motorist, slick roads and crazy drop offs.

Saturday, May 15, 2010

More Rain for the Bay Arae Looking Likely

This is the winter that just keeps on giving. Chances looking good for rain starting in the north bay as early as Sunday night. The combination of a marine layer and incoming weather makes drizzle possible Saturday night and likely by Sunday night.

Sunday to be warmish, with a good 5-10 degree temperature drop by Monday. If will fee even cooler with a breeze, and yes, rain. Not a whole lot. A tenth of an inch, up to 3/4 of an inch in the hills. Snow expected at the higher elevations in the Sierra, up to 8 inches is possible.

Drying weather for Tuesday and a warm day currently forecast for Wednesday. The rest of the week and the weekend see as possible cooling trend, but most likely dry. Still, there is a chance for an off shore trough to dig south and bring in some significant rains for the weekend. Does not seem too likely. Yet.

Trending toward a more May like pattern over the next ten days. These cool and wet troughs should be shifting to the north soon.

Friday, May 7, 2010

A Little Excitement Possible Early Next Week

Today is nice. As should be Saturday. Expect Sunday to be cooler, with increasing clouds, some winds and a chance of showers by evening. Showers should be mostly light, with the heaviest in the north bay, and mostly abating by the Monday morning commute. A second stronger storm should descend on the area by late Monday and into Tuesday. This storm will have more wind and rain, but may remains north of the Bay Area, with showers brushing through Marin. Still, if this system digs another 100 miles further south, we could have fairly strong, if brief, rains.

After that, the week returns to warmer and calmer weather. Highs should be back in the low 70s by Tuesday. Daily highs to increase as the week progresses with possible 80s by Friday.

Long Term models are suggesting a number of large troughs running into the Pacific North West next week and the following week. These progressively dig further south with each system So there remains a chance of rain into mid and late May.

Some snow in the mountains early next week. I have heard the corn has been epic this past week. A nice south swell started hitting the central coast yesterday, although a strong north west flow is ripping apart most breaks outside of Santa Cruz. Love Apple Farm is still selling tomatoes (now in 1 gallon pots).

I'll try to keep ya'll posted if there is any interesting weather happening, but as we roll into summer, it is mostly sun, sun, sun. Unless you live in SF, then you can expect cool, damp and foggy.

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Welcome to May, Sunny and Warm for Now.

Wow. What a start to May. I spent the weekend up at the Sierra Crest and there is an amazing amount of snow out there. Best coverage I have seen in years, and this week is looking to have an epic corn cycle. If you are at all interested in ski touring, this is the season to get it on. And the big lines are still filled in, so you can send it. Just remeber to wear plenty of sunblock and chap stick. Oh, my burnt lips.

With excellent weather this past weekend and forecast for this week, it may be a surprise to here what the charts have in store for us. Sun and warmth should be consistent down in the Bay Area this week, with a slight dip in high temperatures on Tuesday. Almost unnoticeable. In the hills and mountains there is a strong wind today and tomorrow's highs should be 10-15F cooler than today. Temperatures to rebound by Friday, with slight warming each day.

Today is a bit breezy through the local hills and out on the ocean. For you surfers, expect those NW winds to blow strong all week (strongest through Wednesday). So, plenty of chop and a little building wind swell. Hey, it is spring. What did you expect. Not much wind to be felt in the lower and protected elevations.

The big news is the chance for rain and showers as early as this Sunday. Not all models are in agreement, especially with timing of this potential system. Just because it is May, don't mean nothing. Expect the chance of a moderate system to drop out of the Gulf of Alaska as early as mid day Sunday and lasting trough Wednesday. Best bet is for sporadic showers to start late Monday and last through Tuesday afternoon. All and all, I'd expect no more than a 1/2 inch of rain. Just the right amount to keep those mountain bike trails smooth and tacky.

Water year is looking, well variable. The California Nevada River Forecast Center has their April Outlook available. This was published on April 8th, so a lot has changed since then. The May report is expected out soon. Regardless, this is the best season we have had in years, and at least has made a dent in our shortages.

To wrap it up - beautiful through at least Saturday. Then increasing clouds and chance of rain through mid next week. Most likely, sun to follow. Long term - chance of storms to persist into early June. We may even get enough to keep the hills green and the dust down.