Wet Santa Possible.

Well, that surf was raging on Monday.  All along West Cliff people were lined up watching the action in the water.  It was pretty exculpating from the cliff.  It was even more so in the water.  I was lucky enough to get out for a short bit and grab a few waves.  One was a part of the purple blob.  That one was all I needed.  Fear and excitement all wrapped into one.  I spoke with a member of water patrol who was out working the jet ski rescue team on Monday.  He was bummed he didn't get to surf, but the good news is there were no major issues.  They did assist some with getting out of currents and not washing into the pier, but all went okay for the first big day of swell in the 18/19 season.

Surf is still solid, and another long period swell arrives on Thursday.  This one is smaller, at about 10 feet with peak period around 17 seconds.  Solid, but not the beast that arrived Monday.  Today, Wednesday looks very nice with a high temp near 65F.  Just enough clouds to allow that sunrise to pop right now.  Weather will be a touch cooler Thursday as we see a storm move through to our north. We have a very slight chance of some light showers overnight Thursday.  Whatever happens, it clears out during the day Friday.  Although some models show showers sprouting u locally late Friday night as well.  Most likely we are talking just about cloud cover, though.

The weekend looks fair, but we see an increasing chance of rain on the far end.  By Sunday night we should have some cloud cover, and I am watching the forecast models for a Christmas Eve storm.  The bulk of this system may be north and east of us.  It is kind of an inside slider, and might miss us on the coast.  As it stands right now, the heaviest rain looks like it will fall after dark on Christmas Eve and early Christmas morning.

Tahoe ski hills are in decent shape. Kirkwood, as usual, has fantastic early season coverage.  The snow pack is near perfect right now, with so many features and gullies.  The entire region received a few inches Sunday night, will likely get another few Friday night, and are looking at up to a foot Christmas Eve, with potentially more to follow.  Things are looking good if you are planning for a little holiday skiing or boarding.  Go get some.

Massive Waves Monday.

Apologies for the very late post from the 18th.  It somehow got clogged up in my computer.  Anyway, it was close to accurate.  This storm tonight was ratcheted up a bit over the past few days and has hit us with moderate rain.  We are at about 8/10th of an inch of rain at this point, and likely to break the one inch mark before sunrise.  Rain is forecast to subside over night.  Only a very little of this storm will make it up to Tahoe, so instead of measuring in feet, we will be recording inches on Monday. Expect about 10 inches on the crest, most in the north, and just two or so on the east side of the lake.  NorCal is getting drenched tonight, as is the west slope.  Just not making it into the high mountains.

Fair weather on Monday, with NW breezes behind the storm.  A fair amount of sunshine and temps reaching into the low 60s.  The big news for this week is the big North Pacific swell arriving overnight.  By morning, we should be seeing swells in excess of 15 feet at 18-19 seconds.  That is big people.  Surf in town will be well overhead to double overhead at most spots, with the big wave magnets reaching triple or more overhead, with the biggest sets possible around 30 feet.  Tomorrow will be a great day to watch some impressive waves and watch some amazing surfing.  Please know your limits, and use extreme caution when approaching the ocean.  And if this is your thing, have fun and play smart.  Swells will subside a little for Tuesday, but will still be int he XL category.

We are headed into a dry week folks.  Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 60s, with Wednesday expected to be the warmest.  We do see a chance of rain returning by Sunday, but the GFS holds the next storm off until the 26th.  Other models show different timing, but the earliest modeled storm is not until Christmas Eve.  Check back here middle of the week for an update on what to expect for the start of the holiday weeks.  Good money is on fresh snow between Christmas and New Years.

Chance of Wind and Rain.

That about sums it up.  More fair weather today and tomorrow.  Seasonable temperature.  Thursday could even be a little warm, pushing into the upper 60s.  Some clouds.  Friday morning will be cloudy, with a southerly breeze developing.  Rain showers looking possible by mid day and into the evening.  Little to no accumulation.  Perhaps just enough to dampen the surface.

Saint Oars' in Loche, France.

Saturday looks much like today; perhaps with a little more cloud cover.  Another system comes ashore on Sunday.  Currently, it looks like the storm will arrive overnight on Sunday, and into the day Monday.  Some light showers could persist into the evening hours of Monday.  This storm also looks like it will be falling apart as it moves on shore.  Just like last Monday's and Friday's, but this one will hold it together just a bit longer, and bring us some actual rain fall.  Maybe even a little snow for the mountains.  Three quarters of an inch of rain possible in town and up to six inches of snow up on Sierra Crest near Tahoe.  Nothing exciting, and nothing like the string of storms at the end of November and the first few days of December.  Still, more rain is likely over the ext five days.

Tuesday high pressure builds in.  We could see some strong northerly winds behind the storm, moderating into the week.  High pressure looks like it will hold through at least the work week, and perhaps even lasting past Christmas.  Models are all over the place in the mid and long term, so we should consider the possibility of a wet Christmas (or white if you are high enough).  But forecasting that is still a ways out into the future.  For now, expect a chance of showers Friday, and a chance of light rain Monday.  Otherwise, fine winter like weather is on tap.

Quickie.

This post and the coming storm.  Mild tonight, dropping only into the upper 40s.  A little bit of cloud cover helps reduce radiational cooling.  Tomorrow will also be mild, a little cooler than today, with a high if just about 60F.  Some sunshine.  Clouds increase late, and we could see a little bit of rain late Sunday night and into the morning of Monday.  The storms will bring slightly cooler weather.  But clear weather allows for things to warm quickly back up starting Tuesday.  There is a system brushing to our north mid week, and another attempting to hit us Friday.  Even that second one looks like nothing ore than tomorrow nights. The high pressure is starting to do its thing and keep us dry.

That is good news for growers.  My beans are starting to sprout and I might get myself a Christmas harvest, as long as we get enough sunny, and mild days in the weeks to come.  It does look like rain is in our mid and long term forecast at the moment.  Time will tell.

Big Surf and Fine Weather.

De Laveaga rain gauge is reporting .41 inches of rain for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Shy of a half inch.  We are at .79" for the month to date, already putting us ahead of last December which only recorded .15 inches.  So far so good, and for now, the rain is behind us.  The weather over the next few days looks splendid.  Cool overnight, in the ow 40s.  Highs in the low 60s.  Tomorrow, Friday, looks like it will have the most sun.  Still, there will be enough cloud cover out there to make for stunning sunrise and sunset sessions.  Sunday will have the most cloud cover, especially by afternoon.

There does look to be a storm diving from the northwest on Sunday evening that will bring with it a chance of light rain.  This system is falling apart as it approaches the high pressure, and will likely be very mild.  Clouds, a little wind, a bit warmer and rain overnight, maybe showers on Monday, but clearing out fairly quickly.  Tuesday should be sunny again, and not making it out of the 50s.  We can call it crisp. The rest of the work week is looking good, with low 60s and sunshine.  Next chance at some rain will be Friday afternoon and evening.  This one could bring back the inch plus measurements.  Stay tuned.  Winter is here.

Surf is cranking this evening and will be even bigger tomorrow.  Surf heights are not huge, but the waves are very long period.  Today had 20 second plus swells, and tomorrow will be mostly 18-19 second periods.  Swell heights are less than 10 feet, but breakers far exceed that.  More importantly, these swells will have a lot go firsthand power due to the long periods.  Broken waves will sweep across points with a ton of power.  Know your skill set and limits.  Play accordingly.  Surf should be up through Saturday, subsiding over the weekend, but still head high plus in Sunday.  Another storm is already developing a swell that could hit us on Monday.  This one looks even bigger, but with ore moderate period.

Word in the back rooms is Kirkwood is going to open the backside, as early as mid day on Friday.  Saturday if that does not work out for them.  Sounds like the resort is going to be 99% for the weekend.  I imagine Vista will not be running, so Look Out will be hike to only.  And I can only assume Hell's Delight will still be roped off.  But the rest is good to go.  Although it might be a little peppery at the top of 10.  Ski season is in full swing.  Make plans and get out there.

Windy.

Generally an easterly wind. A little north or south in it depending on where you stand.  Blowing at 23 mph on the wharf, with a gust to 30 mph.  Long Marine Lab has it clocking at 12 mph.  What is interesting is how strong of an east wind we are getting.  Rain started to fall around 2:15 today and has been sporadic.  It was heavy briefly around 8:40, and then this wind really kicked up.  I can hear holiday decorations getting tossed around out there.  This storm should subside overnight.  Periods of heavy rain are possible, but we are looking at getting maybe a half inch overnight.  I'm thinking it is closer to a third of an inch by sunrise and maybe, just maybe a half inch by the time this thing wraps up.  Showers should start breaking by late morning and we should be high and dry by the early morning hours on Thursday.  But it all depends on how this system moves.  Right now it stays off shore and swiftly gets to our south.

Forecast still looking good into the weekend.  Storm tries to break downtime high pressure for Monday.  Better chance of more rain late next week.  It is a nice wet December.

I'll get back on here later this week to recap this storm and look at our next one.  I'll leave you with this.  Solid NW swell is arriving Thursday.  Long period, and moderate height.  It should hit at 7.5 feet at 19 seconds, with the best breaks seeing double overhead surf.  Game on folks.  Use caution.  Eastside should be head high plus, westside overhead, Middle Peak and north county will be double overhead.  Conditions look clean.  Swell continues Friday and drops a bit, but still solid, on Saturday.

Hard Saying, Not Knowing.

Gorgeous sunrise the morning.  Not nearly as cold as forecasted.  Low 40s, maybe even a bit warmer than Sunday morning.  Cool, fine weather today on Monday.  So, with this midweek storm we are going to have, it is cut off from the jet stream and will be doing its own thing.  That makes it hard to forecast.  This morning's 06hr model run suggests that we won't see any rain until daylight hours on Tuesday, and it will be light through that period.  The storm shifts more onshore Tuesday evening and we get a half inch plus overnight.  The real surprise is how quickly it shifts south, and we go dry by Wednesday mid morning.  Now, the rain line is basically just south of Watsonville, near Marina.  And (I know you don't start sentences with "and", but this is a though), it will be fairly heavy rain.  So a slight change in location or velocity of the storm, and we could see moderate rains through late Thursday.  But let's go with this forecast this morning.  Almost sunny late Wednesday, some sun Thursday and fine fine Friday.

It looks like the high pressure will hold for the weekend ahead, so use that time to get outside.  Maybe purchase a tree (if you are one of the few who do get a tree, but not on Black Friday).  They will be dry.  Next window for tree purchasing with added water will be late the following week.  As it stands now, there is another powerful system breaking through next Sunday night lasting into next Wednesday morning.  Another cut off low, that will take its Tim pushing inland.  This one looks to stay on top of us, instead of move south.

The really good news about al of this is that SoCal is getting some water folks.  For the first time in like 7 years, they are getting some decent early season rains.  That is excellent news.  You may have forgotten about the drought, as it is no longer Exceptional in large portions of the state.  Still, the entire state is listed as Abnormally Dry or in a level of Drought.  Five percent of the state was listed as Extreme at the start of the water year in late September.  It is now down to 3.78% as of November 29th.  I expect after these next two storms, we will see more drops, especially in the coastal regions. Just to keep you informed, we are in Moderate Drought on the OR Borger to SLO.  South of there they are in Severe Drought, with a section from Pt Conception to Ventura listed as Extreme.  Bring that water.

Surf is settling from a larger NW swell we had late last week and over the weekend.  Another NW should arrive on Thursday.  Smaller swell through the first half of the week, with easterly winds.  Smaller, but not tiny.  It is head high out there this morning.  If it was too ligand stormy for you over the weekend, and have time, get out over the next few days. More swell is on the way.

Almost Five.

Da Laveaga rainfall gauge came in at 4.97" for the month of November, knocking it out of the park over the previous three years.  We are off to a great start for our water year and all of that started just over 10 days ago.  So far we recorded .38" at this plot for December.  And there is more to come in the coming week.  But first we get another fine late autumn day on Monday.  It will be crisp in the morning.  Some locales in town could hit the freezing mark.  Expect front, and if you are on the before sunrise commute, you might want need to scrape your windshield.  Easterly breeze and mostly sunny.  Cool, with a high in the upper 50s.  Feels kind of like winter.  Rain moves in overnight, possibly before midnight.

This storm is basically driving down the coast and will dissipate and push inland well south of here.  The result will be moderate rains over 36 hours, with moderate easterly winds.  The storms center stays to our west, offshore, through its duration.  Right now it looks like rain will arrive after sunrise on Tuesday.  Mostly light showers to start, but will increase in intensity by afternoon.  It could remain moderate overnight and through Wednesday.  Rain lightens overnight Wednesday.  Lows in the low 40 and highs in the upper 50s.  Things will clear out slowly on Thursday.  Friday looks nice.  Sunny and back up into the 60s.

Over the next weekend it looks like a storm attempts to hit us, but high pressure building in will try to block it.  Hang on, we are on our way into the water year and storms are lining up.  Great news for the ski resorts that got another 20 to 45 inches of new snow over the past five days.  More terrain is opening and it looks like we are off to a good start.  This storm for next week will mostly miss the Sierra, being too far west, but that could still get a few more inches.