Gorgeous. Its October.

Why even bother wondering.  It is gorgeous out there.  Pretty much from sun up to sun down.  78F on King Street this afternoon.  Currently still in the Liw 70s at 5:30PM.  Seriously, that is fine weather.  There was some strong westerly winds today.  Enough to keep us in the 70s oaths side of town.  More of the same tomorrow.  Lighter winds on Wednesday and perhaps slack conditions Thursday and Friday will clearly see us into the 80s.  Cool northerly flow aloft brings us back down into the 70s Friday and into the weekend.  We could even be looking at low 70s.  Overnight lows in the ow 50s, except for tonight when we could dip into the upper 40s.  Should be a crisp morning Tuesday.  But gorgeous from sun up to sun down.

Ghost in the Catacombs, underneath Paris.

We are entering sunset season.  Not nearly enough cloud cover out there to make it go off, but our sun angle is low and days are short, giving us plenty of reds and pinks to play with for an hour or so each evening.  Sunrises are not too shabby either.  Gorgeous continues into the the next two weeks.  We could see some warming in early November as the high pressure develops over us, shutting down the westerly flow, and maybe even encouraging a warm offshore flow. Some call it fire weather.  But were are not there yet.

Fine Weather.

It ain't perfect fall.  There has been an afternoon wind west of town.  Today it was more of a morning wind.  Patches of autumnal fog aren't bad.  Sun is warm in the afternoons.  It is October for sure.  Looks like we have a mix of warmth and some coastal winds over the next few days.  It hit 75F on the Municipal Wharf this afternoon, and tomorrow looks even warmer.  Although a strong afternoon wind might keep that warmth at bay.  Expect highs in the mid 70s Saturday and low 70s Sunday.

Gates to the Cite' Royales de Loches, Loire Valley, France.

The we see a warming trend through the middle of next work week.  We could be into low 80s for Wednesday and maybe even Thursday.  Heck, maybe even Tuesday.  But through all of that period we have some moderate to strong NW afternoon winds.  Strong on the weekend, especially Saturday afternoon, and maybe Monday afternoon.  Just enough breeze to help cool things a bit.  As we head toward Wednesday, we could see light winds and warmer days.  All in all, the weather is looking west to end the month.

Looking out at the seven, 10 and 16 day charts, we are looking t continued fine autumn weather.  We might even find ourselves under a settled high pressure the first full week of November.  That would mean some warm and calm weather.  Both the North and South Pacific continue to send moderate swell to the region.  Northwest swell is peaking this evening and will ease tomorrow. It was overhead just west of town today.  Overlapping Southwest swells are easing and building through the weekend and more NW due Monday.

Garden is going off.  Pole beans are climbing and it is almost Halloween.  Maybe I get a December harvest this year.  As long as the weather continues like this I will.  Favas are looking strong.  Broccoli are looking large.  Peas are flowering.  Older bean plants producing.  Kale is kale.  Beets and Carrots look promising.  All in all, we are having some fabulous growing weather.  Wish I had a mature indeterminate heathy tomato plant in my mix right now.  It would be going off.

Willa.

Mexico is about to get rocked by a massive hurricane.  Willa is currently packing 155 mph winds, but quickly diminishing.  Just west of Puerto Vallarta, Willa is moving north-northeast and is about to plow through the Isla Marias with 130mph winds.  It will slam into the coast of Mexico near the boarder of Nayarit and Sinaloa, tomorrow evening.  Storm surge, 110mph winds and lots of rain are expected.  If you can, consider giving to a charity this week that will help the people caught in this mess.  Another storm, Vicente, much weaker, and only a Tropical Storm, will run ashore in Jalisco around the same time on Tuesday, bringing more moisture into the picture.  I expect we will be hearing about a lot of flooding in those provinces, as well as Durango.



Not much change in our forecast.  It did get cool last night dropping to about 50F at 3am.  It took until 10am to break past 55F.  We could have the same effect tonight.  Stars are out, and the temperature is steadily dropping (from a high of about 67F, btw), and we could see fog move in in the early morning hours.  Expect another cool morning, with a marine layer sticking around through mid morning.  Or maybe like today, sticking around through mid day.  It was sunny up the coast around 10am, but still foggy in town into the afternoon.  Weird stuff.  High of 67F Tuesday.

Only change is maybe a little patchy fog sticking around Wednesday and Thursday. But we are still going clear from Thursday into Sunday, with some warmer days for Friday and Saturday.  I gotta say, that fog layer was nice for getting some yard work done and not dealing with the hot sun.

Autumnal.

The weather has been quite fine the past week.  Super calm, and super glassy through the middle of last week allowed for some warming.  By Friday we were in the 80s for an afternoon high.  The weekend was quite nice, but cooler.  Slightly.  And we are now into a cooling trend, with the marine layer moving in overnight.  Expect fog in the morning like we saw on Sunday early.  That will break apart relatively early, and then we will see some wind for the afternoon.  Almost summer like.  So why the post title?  Cause it won't last.

Sea grass on the sand dunes Truc Vert on Cap Ferret.  July, 2018.

Fog again for Tuesday morning.  The week starts off with highs in the upper 60s and lows in the mid 50s.  Fog does work like a blanket at night.  The stars are still out at this hour, so depending on when that blanket moves in, we could see some significant radiational cooling.  In that cause, it could be both cold and foggy in the morning.  So, there is that.  It looks like by Wednesday we will be free of the marine layer, and free to start warming up again.  A high of 70 for the middle of the week, topping out in the mid 70s for Friday and Saturday.  As it stands now, it looks like we could cool a little bit into Sunday, but still sunny and basically warm.  Very autumn like.

We have had some fun waves over the last few weeks, and that looks to continue.  Another south swell arrives tomorrow, at the same time, a series of small, mid period NW swell arrive.  Both swells build through mid week, and then another, mid sized and mid period NW Gulf of Alaska swell arrives on Thursday.  Busy week for waves if you can figure out where they will be working the best.  The point is always a good option, but watch that mid morning high tide.

In the long range, nothing exciting.  Storms continue to get pushed north into Canada or the PNW.  There is an outside chance for some rain in NorCal by months end.  Halloween looks dry.  When you look way out into the fantasy charts, our high pressure begins moving west, and by around November 7th, it is far enough west, that we could see some rain come down its eastern flank from the north.  But that is weeks away, and therefore not very confidence inspiring.  If you are growing a winter garden, this is great news.  Lack of rain usually means sunshine and warmth for Santa Cruz in the autumn.  My favas, beets, broccoli and carrots are coming in great.  More sunshine can only help.  I even have a fall green bean harvest going right now.  How cool is that?

Eighty.

Hell, it was still 75F at the top of Van Ness as of 6PM.  What an absolutely gorgeous day that's gotta make you glad you live in Santa Cruz.  The ocean was sparkling today.  The southwest swell was still in the fun range keeping the northern reefs firing well into afternoon.  But more than the waves was just the massive beauty of it all.  Nothing quite like a mid October day on this coastline.

Le Truc Vert pumpimg.  Cap Ferret, France.  July, 2018.

So in yesterday's post I promised a clear sky for the work week.  We'll, that was not completely accurate.  There were patches of coastal fog this morning through 11AM or so.  Just on the water for the most part.  We could see that tomorrow, but by Wednesday morning we could see some fog here in town in the morning.  And again Thursday morning.  Another change is a warm up on Friday, back into the mid 70s.  We have to see if the cool shot of air stays north and allows us to warm up for the weekend.

If you are gardening, now is the time to get that winter garden going.  Favas, Peas, Broccoli, Cauliflower, Kale, Brussels Sprouts, Carrots, Beets, and Lettuce all do well over winter around here.  But you need to get your plants established before December, when we can see some cold nights that will stunt any seedlings.  Get the broccoli to flower by Thanksgiving and you could be trimming through April.  If the space is still crowded from the summer harvest, no worries.  Get it worked by December and you can still plant onions, garlic and potato starts.  Just make sure you have good drainage for those guys.

Anyway, a fairly placid week ahead.  Maybe some rain later in the month.  A bunch of swells in the water this week and into the weekend.  Sunshine, light winds and mild warmth.  It is great out there.  Try to get some.

More Sunshine.

That fog filled in this morning, but burned off to the coast by 10AM. Enough to cool things down a bit.  The thermometer at Van Ness topped at 66F today, compared to a high of 73F on Saturday.  Still, it was quite pleasant.  We could see a little cloud cover tonight, but it looks even more sparse than last night.  Should see those high temps move back up into the 70s.  In fact we could be in the mid to upper 70s in town tomorrow.  Looks like a beautiful day.  Basically we are looking at low 50s in the very early morning hours and low 70s in the afternoon for the rest of the work week.  Typical October awesomeness.  I mean, it is mid October folks.  Got to love this stuff.  I've lived here for over twenty years, but I never forget the northeast.  Crisp is the word that comes to mind.

Bassin d"Arcachon, France.  July 2018.

The Sierra have been crisp.  Freezing nighttime lows above 6000 feet.  In fact, it is currently snowing very lightly in Lake Tahoe.  It must be a lake effect flurry, as the winds are causing waves of several feet to form, and it is otherwise very dry in the state.  High pressure is set up on us, and the North and East Bay are in a red flag warning.  Northeast winds are whipping through those hills in excess of 50 mph.  These are the conditions that sent Santa Rosa into flames last year.

Out on the ocean, a long period south swell continues to create some pretty damn fun waves.  Calm winds have created great conditions, and while the swell should drop a bit by Monday, the surf continues through the work week.  Another SW swell arrives late on Monday and last through mid week, and then a NW swell arrive late Wednesday.  This is from a legitimate gale that is currently at the dateline, and the first real sign of a change of season.  We will get some moderate sized surf west and north of town, with maybe head high swell in town.  It probably will be a little smaller than the south swell we are currently seeing, but a step in the right direction for those of us who like the consistency of swells from the North Pacific.

Weather wise, it will not really have any effect on us, as it gets pushed north into Alaska.  Like I said we have a solid high pressure on us.  The long term models suggest the storm track moving south into the PNW by the last week of the month.  One model run suggests rain on October 30th.  Something to watch, as that could mean a wet Halloween.  But we have over two weeks before then, so a lot will change.  Just throwing it out there, as you always want to be prepared if you have kids.  Or if you don't but have been working on an awesome art outfit to where out that night.  More to come.

Cooler. And Sergio. And Michael.

Holy cow the weather is weird.  At least the tropical storms.  But first, expect a chance of some fog returning overnight, putting an end to the four day run of near perfect weather.  Excepting that demon wind.  The night will be warmer and the day cooler.  High in the upper 60s.  Lighter winds though, so might feel similar in exposed areas.  Protected zones like Harvey West might feel the touch of coolness.  We should kick this trend by later int he week.  Clear nights, cooler nights and warmer days return for Friday and into the weekend.  Nothing about our local weather is all that weird.  The smoke yesterday from the Solano County fire was a bit odd, but that is not weird weather.

Château de Chenonceau, Chenonceaux, France.  July 2018.  

What is interesting is Sergio returning to Mexico.  Great for us, sending waves north, but this will be the second hit Baja takes in two weeks.  A little further south this time.  He should make landfall on Thursday night, with about 50mph winds and bringing plenty of rain.  What is about to become a news story, and of much bigger concern is Micheal in the Gulf of Mexico.  Just forming now, he is to intensify quickly, making landfall on the Florida pan handle Wednesday evening as a major hurricane.  Expected sustained winds over 110 mph at land fall.  The track continues north and east, over Georgia, South and North Carolina, Virginia and going back out to sea somewhere around Washington D.C.  Much of that same area is where Florence dropped so much rain a few weeks ago.  And Mother Nature is now taking at the Capital.  And is that was not interesting enough, check out Leslie. She has been wandering around the Atlantic for weeks now.  Like well before Rosa was even a thing.  And now she is strengthening again and taking aim at Europe.  Well, first she will head south east, then turn northeast and march right at Portugal.  Do they even normally get swell from the southwest?  Well, they will now.  And maybe a good wetting as well.  For us, we won't see any weather from these storms.  Sergio is far enough south that moisture will only hit souther Arizona and shift over New Mexico and into Texas.  Eventually heading to the northeast, giving the southeast a break.

So, some fog over the next few days.  Light winds.  Maybe even south winds by mid week.  Sunny mornings and clear nights returns Thursday.   Winds remain light.  Looks light autumn is here.

Sergio:



Leslie:





Michael:

Finally.

Posted today, but written last night...

A few hundredths of an inch here in town this after.  It came in two spurts, and has settled into a mild drizzle.  Almost feels like fog at this point, but we had some for real rain earlier today.  Just never lasted more than a few minutes.  We could still see a few ore drops out there.  It is currently raining to our west and south.  Chances remain slim, yet, it rained during period that had a slim chance for rain today.  We only got a little rain here today.  Sacramento Airport receive over a inch and a half.  In general, the Central Valley and west slope received the heaviest rain.  Down south, Santa Barbara was the big winner with over 2/3 of an inch.  The Sierra got hit pretty well, with 4/10 of an inch at Yosemite and Mammoth Lakes, and 3/4 of an inch at Tahoe and almost an inch at Manzanita Lake near Mount Lassen.  We got some rain across the state.  Good for us.

Small NW swell arrives tomorrow. It is already showing at Cape Mendocino.  Nothing big, but another sign that fall is here.  Clouds clear out in the morning, and forecast sticks.  Sunny days, about 70F, and clear nights about 50F.  Warming trend over the weekend, possibly pushing 80F at Harvey West.  At least mid 70s here in town.

I'll take a few days to watch Sergio.  He is strong right now.  Impressive from sate little.  Moving toward the west with sustained 130 mph winds.  He is to slow over the next few days, weaken a bit, then turn northeast.  By Monday, he will be headed back toward Baja as a strong tropical storm and could re-strengthen.  Something to watch, and should send us some strange swell.  In fact, we already have some on the way for the weekend, form the southeast agin, due to the past few days of Sergio moving north.  Interesting times.  And the NPAC continues to stir.

Enjoy the next few days with mostly sunny conditions and warm daytime highs.  Enjoy fall.

Ugh.

Watching that storm sit just offshore is kind of frustrating.  I was hoping for a quarter inch of rain to wet my soil.  Oh, well.  We still have a chance for some light showers, but that is not feeling likely.  Pretty humid out there today, especially when the sun was shining.  Fog rolled in quickly around 4PM and shut down that feeling.  Then it pulled back out for sunset.  Gorgeous sky.  It got warmer than forecast today, with much of town in the low to mid 70s for several hours.  It was damn nice out.

Alpine pond in the Yosemite high country.  June 2018.

Don't be shocked if we get some some light showers tonight or tomorrow.  Meaning, don't get caught unprepared. It is not looking likely, though.  Warm night, barely dropping into the 50s (its 66F at 9PM!!).  Cloud cover likely tomorrow, at least in part.  About the same temps as today, depending on how much sun we get.  Another warm and cloudy night Wednesday, with some clearing Thursday.  The sky clears Thursday evening, we see a cooler night (down to about 50F).  Slight warming tend through Sunday, with continued cool nights.  Plenty of sun and starts expected.

Almost Humid.

Well, the waves surf looked fun this evening.  No wind north of Davenport sure made for some smooth water and great beach conditions.  Rosa is about to make landfall in Baja with 40 mph sustained winds and lots of rain.  Our storm, just to our west looks like it wants to stay just to our west.  We will see some rain, but the bulk of the moisture stays just off shore, and what comes ashore is mostly to our south and streaming up the Sierra.  Still, we are expecting rain to start late tonight into the morning hours on Tuesday.  What does come will likely come in showery spurts and some thunderstorms are possible.  It is still mostly clear out there. A long UFO shaped cloud stretch from west of Monterey all the way into the Salinas Valley around sunset.  Low in the upper 50s. Pretty warm out there overnight.

Liberty Cap and Nevada Fall, Yosemite.  June 2018.

Low chances of some light rain before sunrise.  At the very least, expect some moisture on the roads. Remember that the first rains of the year bring all the road oils to the surface, and makes things slick. Use caution out there tomorrow.  Clouds, and increasing chances of rain through the morning hours, with moderate rain by midday.  Or, at least our strongest rain.  High in the upper 60s.  Like I said, the bulk is to ur west and south.  Still, we could total a half inch or more.  Showers could last into the evening, and even into the morning Wednesday, but chance are we will see a good amount of sun Wednesday.  It will be a little cooler Wednesday night with the clearing sky.  

Thursday, it will be a touch warmer, and sunny.  A clear sky looks to stick around into the weekend, with nice autumnal weather.  Lows drop into the low 50s and highs climb to about 70F through Monday.  The NPAC remains active, with another small storm impacting the PNW this coming weekend. Sergio slowly moves west, strengthens, and then moves north, then maybe stalling in tropics.  More activity expected at the dateline a week out.  Definitely begging to feel a bit like fall.