Thursday, October 30, 2014

Guidance suggest a moderate system to impact the region within hours.

Gonna have to be quick and sweet this evening.  Busy day.  The past five runs of the the GFS, along with the Euro and Canadian are all trending toward a wetter solution.  The system has moved into the NW corner of the state, and moisture is already pushing south.  Pretty sure I just felt a few drops outside, but that might have been the fog.  Bullseye has shifted north around Half Moon Bay with 1.6" of liquid.  Expect most of that in the hills, but the coast and valley will get plenty wet.  A strip of 1.5" plus is forecast along the Sierra spine with a 1.7" double bullseye around Lassen and Mammoth Lakes.  Rain all the way down to San Diego, but not quite penetrating the desert.  A goos start for the state.

I'm pretty much done guessing how it will all turn out, but it looks like the bulk of the rain will fall here between noon on Friday and 6AM on Saturday.  Expect some before and after that period.  I'd be ready for rain pretty much from 3AM Friday until 3PM Saturday.  Might even keep a shell nearby until Sunday.  Still looks pretty nice Sunday, with what is starting to look like hot offshore flow for the middle of next week.  Again.  If you are traveling to, or over, the Sierra Friday or Saturday, be prepared for winter driving conditions, slick roads, wipeouts and road closures.  I do expect I80 to close some time Friday from accidents.  NOAA upped t Winter Storm Watch to a Warning and are calling for 8-15" in the peaks, with six ore more at lake level.  Snow levels could drop below 5000 feet by early Saturday morning.  Yup, this one is looking like a nice start.  Updates tomorrow on the storm and this weekend for the coming weekend and more storms upstream.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Are you ready for winter?

So, I hear that some of the local news outlets, especially those nearer the ski slopes, are getting all excited about the start of winter.  Yeah, naw.  I mean, not really.  Just a small step in the right direction over the next few days.  Basically it is going to roll out like this.  Today is pretty awesome out there.  In the 80s for the most part right now, except as you get closer to the cliffs, where it is just in the 70s.  Oh well.  That offshore flow event never really took root, but this afternoon we are mostly seeing a northerly sea breeze less than ten knots.  So light by central coast standards.  Thursday will be a good five degrees (or more) cooler.  Still a nice day with plenty of sun.  Another crisp morning as well.  Thursday evening cloud cover will increase.  The 6AM and noon run of the GFS and Euro seem to have the rain filling in early morning around sunrise.  Don't be surprised if it arrives sooner.  Do expect it to be raining during your morning commute, especially for those going over Highway 17.  Be smart and leave a few minutes earlier this Friday.  Moderate rain is likely for the Monterey Bay region, with the heaviest falling early in the day Friday.  It does look like the rain will become less wide spread and more showery in nature through the afternoon hours.  There is a chance for you Trick-o-Treat fans after all.  But yeah, plan to get a little wet.  High sticking in the mid 60s, perhaps warmest in the morning ahead of the cold front.

Jack-o-Lantern.  Have fun and be careful out there this Friday.  

Up in the Sierra, the Lake Tahoe is expecting a dusting to a few inches, with more on the ridge lines.  The Sierra Crest is looking at about a foot in the best locations, with more perhaps in the south.  It will all depend on how this thing splits.  In fact, Big Sur is looking quite a bit wetter than Santa Cruz and San Francisco.  They could see well over an inch of rain in the Santa Lucia, and a good inch along the coast.  Expect a solid inch in Ben Lomond, and well over a half in here in town.  These are solid numbers for Halloween.  Nothing our of the ordinary, but certainly hefty.  Not nearly enough to dent up the drought, but enough to feel good.  And water that garden for the week.  And with the long term being consistent with another system hitting about a week later, things do look promising.  Anyway, as I was saying, Halloween night, things begin to clear out.  Expect sporadic showers through the night, and even into the early morning hours on Saturday. And a cooler day. But it will clear out quickly, perhaps offering up an epic sunset for the last day before we Fall Back.  Yup, don't forget to sleep (or party) an extra hour Saturday night and turn back those clocks one hour before you go to sleep.  Gotta save that daylight.

Sunday things move back into the 70s, with another warm up for the middle of next week.  Likely not as warm as today, but another nice period, before perhaps more rain.  Yay.

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

So, what does it all mean?

Nothing significant in the way of change to the forecast to report today.  Maybe not quite as off shorey on Wednesday.  Anyway, that gives us time to discuss the meaning of it all.  And, just to be clear, I am not talking about the Meaning of it All.  That would require a bigger forum.  Rather, this progressive pattern we have been seeing; does it project an expectation for the upcoming winter?  In a word, no.  So don't go acting like the drought is a thing of the pass.  In fact, while most of the winter projections are showing average to slightly above average snowfall, none of them forecast enough to fully recover from the drought.  And those are only forecasts.  Until the water is in the reservoirs, it is best just to remain on your conservationist paths.  Anyway, what does it all mean?

We are currently in an active pattern in the North Pacific. Signs and models suggest this current pattern is likely to continue.  A pattern where a high pressure develops after a storm, drives strong north west winds, and peaks quickly, only to be weakened and pushed out of the way about every five to six days by the southern edge of a storm.  Each pass of storms shifts further and further south.  And the high pressure is lasting for shorter periods of time.  Progressive.  So, what it does mean is that for the next several weeks, we can expect a pattern where we have very nice weather for three to fours days, interrupted by a period of wind, rain and cooler weather.  And, if we look at differing seasonal forecasts, there is a general agreement for decent precipitation in the next two months.  So, it does mean you are likely to be skiing on Thanksgiving, if that is your thing.  And you are likely to be surfing moderate waves, with short periods of clean larger waves, during the next two months.  And  you are likely to be riding tacky mountain trails.  And you are likely to have decent periods to plant winter gardens.  And you are likely to start seeing the creeks flowing and the waterfalls falling soon.

Anyway, stay tuned here, and I will be sure to give you accurate local conditions, observations and forecasts.  Today there is not much to say about the coming week, other than look at yesterday's post.  As we get closer to the storm, I will have a better update.  I guess I have one more thing to add.  With that Wednesday flow not quite being as off shore as it was looking yesterday, that pretty much means the high pressure is weaker, and the storm could arrive a bit earlier.  So, yeah, more on that tomorrow.

Monday, October 27, 2014

October's been progressive. But what does it mean????

We did have that quick, hot, offshore event in the early part of the month, signifying the start of autumn, then things went progressive.  Typically we would not have heated up quite as nicely as we did.  Typically big bubble of high sitting upon us in October would get us up to maybe the mid 80s, and a touch cooler down by the water.  And typically, we would have had that weather stick around for longer periods, inter spaced with still mostly sunny, but cooler weather in the 70s as the high got depressed by fall storms running into British Columbia and occasionally dipping into the PNW, with maybe one impacting California.  Instead, we have seen regular systems hitting the PNW, and about once a week a threat of light to moderate rain as far south as the Central Coast.  Combine with that at least periods of gusty south winds, and it is easy to see that October has been quite progressive, acting like we are approaching Thanksgiving instead of Halloween.  Speaking of Halloween, hope your costume is water proof.  I'm thinking of the guy that wraps himself in plastic wrap.  That might a good plan if you don't mind not breathing through your skin.

Ready to board.  Perkins Cove, Maine.

Timing and intensity has changed a bit for the coming week, but really the models are looking quite consistent and the forecast has a fair amount of confidence in the general run of things.  Of course, as we move through the week, timing and intensity are likely to change.  But expect something a bit like this.  Today is nice and warm, with a strong northwest wind on the outer waters keeping things from warming up too much.  Some small westerly short period swell is out on the water.  Could be fun at the beaches in the mornings.  Otherwise, that northwest wind will keep a good chop on things.  Tuesday looks about the same, with perhaps the wind being a touch lighter, the air a touch warmer and the surf a touch smaller.  What is looking like a real nice day is Wednesday.  We could see light off shores in the morning, with  no real onshore gradient developing.  Thinking we could be hitting 80F and the best corners in town.  Should be nice and warm at the downtown market in the afternoon.  ANd while Thursday looks to begin very nicely, the next storm upstream for us will begin moving onshore and down the coast.  We won't see rain on Thursday, but increasing clouds, and a developing westerly flow look to be in the cards.  So yeah, not as warm as the humpday.  Sounding familiar?

Current runs of the GFS and EC suggest that around mid day on Friday we should see the first of the rain for this week's storm.  And while the rain totals forecast have dropped a bit with today's noon hour run, they still look impressive enough to feel confident that we will be seeing at least a threat for some light rain.  And a decent chance at seeing moderate rain.  Temps back down into the upper 60s as cool air moves ashore during the day.  Showers possible overnight and into the morning hours Saturday.  They shouldn't last through mid day though.  This is another quick mover.  High clouds clear out early on Sunday for more sunshine, and northwest winds filling in the high pressure.  Back up to the low 70s and then warming through mid week, then chance of a rain system....

Anyway, so what does it all mean?  I guess I'll write about that tomorrow if I don't see much of a change in this week's weather.  In the meantime, enjoy the next few days, get outside and checkout the puddles before they are all gone by tomorrow.

Sunday, October 26, 2014


Sometimes change is nice, but can recall enjoying watching Mork and Mindy in syndication. Re-runs basically.  And that is what we are in store for the coming week.  A lot of details remain to be ironed out, but basically we had a day of building high pressure on Sunday, and a few days of warming ahead, with Wednesday being the peak.  Temps will range from 70F to maybe 80F here in town for humpday.  Things moderate a bit Thursday, with an approaching trough for late Friday and into the weekend.  The past few model runs have about an inch plus of precipitation for the West Slope this coming Saturday, and a good half inch wide spread along the Central Coast.  If that were to come to pass, it would be the biggest storm yet this season.  And while we have not even yet made a dent in the drought, all these early season storms sure feel nice.  And the mid and long range show no stop to the line up, with low pressures clearly looking predominant into next month.  Cool beans.


So, for that short term, expect brisk north west winds today, decreasing clouds and warmer temps.  We should be seeing low 70s here in town.  A clear night tonight will really get things feeling crisp.  Lows will be in the low 50s, and upper 40s in the mountain valleys.  Some northeast facing valleys will get real chilly.  Hit repeat for Monday, and a warming begins on Tuesday.  More later.

Saturday, October 25, 2014


Well, it rained.  It is raining.  In fact, parts of the local mountains are getting plenty wet.  Ben Lomond is already reporting three quarters of an inch, while Pt. Reyes Station has barely topped a half inch.  For a storm that is hitting to our north, what could explain this?  A split.  Last night the system broke in two, sending a portion of its old self south along the coast, while the bulk remained in the north state.  So, areas north of San Francisco may receive less than areas in the Santa Cruz and even Santa Lucia Mountains.  Cool beans.  As of 9:30AM, it does look like the front, and the bulk of the rain, has moved to our east.  Cool beans, as we are about to head outside for some adventure.  Still, the treat of rain, and maybe even some thunder, remains for the afternoon today.  No matter what happens, if you have a slicker and some stompers, you will stay mostly dry.  Or dry enough.  It is not cold, just cool.  Upper 60s will top out the day.  Sun for Sunday, as the name suggests.  More to come on the coming week.  But I'll leave you with this.  Sure looks like we are lined up for some sunshine and warming through Wednesday.  Now, get out side and stomp some puddles before they are gone.  That earth is soaking it up as we sit.

Barnacle rock, Drake's Island Beach, Maine.  Ah, summertime.

Friday, October 24, 2014

Tough call, but it does look like some rain will fall.

All week most of the outlets were increasing the chances of rain for tonight and Saturday, while the models were all backing off on their prediction of precipitation.  As I watched this, I was wondering if the forecasters were just feeling optimistic that we could get the much needed water.  The 6PM GFS last night had us staying dry.  But this morning's 6AM now has rain extending down toward Point Sur during the day on Saturday.  Light rain.  Less than one tenth of an inch.  But still some rain.  Add to that the increase in south flow modeled (it was light, and it is now moderate) and I think we are looking at a good chance of at least one band of rain moving through on Saturday, likely between 7AM and 11AM.  An additional band may move through later in the day, so the threat of light rain will continue through the evening.  But before we spend too much time on tomorrow, let us look briefly at today.  Cool.  Plenty of fog/clouds this morning, with a chance for some mid day sun before the storm clouds begin to infiltrate this evening.  Highs linger in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Ya know they guy that captains this boat ain't afraid of a little rain.  Perkins Cove, Maine.

Now, there is still a lot up in the air, as this impending system is cut off from the jet.  It is currently stirring just offshore.  The current modeled track brings the center of the storm across the OR/CA border tomorrow morning with the south trailing front brushing our region.  Light showers will be likely for a few hours in the morning.  If this thing heads further north we will stay dry.  Shift it a little bit to the south and we could get much more rain.  The NCal coast if forecast to get a few inches of rain from this system.  So the water is there.  Just not here.  Cool on Saturday, with south winds and clouds.  Dress a bit warmer, and plan to bring some rain gear with you if you are heading out.  And still head out.  It is not like it is going to be a down pour.  Head up to Wilder Ranch and enjoy the Harvest Festival.  A chance of rain lingers through the afternoon, but we could see some clearing as well.  By Sunday this thing will be long gone, with a strong northwest flow and high pressure filling back in.  A touch warmer and in the low 70s Sunday.

I'll take a look at next week after this storm moves through.  The models have made a complete flip since yesterday, so I want to wait a few runs before trying to guess what is upstream.  Get out this weekend, enjoy the sprinkle, find some puddles to stomp, and make the most out of it.  All in all a great weekend on tap to get out and play.

Noon Thirty EDIT:  The 12h GFS run now has a lighter brush of rain, with timing being mostly between noon and 6PM Saturday.  So, yeah, even the GFS is having a hard time making a call.

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Do you enjoy yourself some autumn?

While the PNW and even NorCal are receiving a nice dousing of water these weeks, down here on the Central Coast we are pretty much living in the lap of luxury.  Sure, we have had a few wet hours, and a few hot days, but the weather has pretty much been spot on perfect.  Mid 70s across town today.  Great weather to get downtown, visit the Farmer's Market and get the best of the harvest season.  We are still finding some tasty late season stone fruit, sweet bell peppers, summer herbs, eggplants, yellow corn and dry farmed tomatoes.  Even some melons still.  Cucumbers were gone this week.  And no doubt there are pumpkins galore.  But whatever, it was perfect shopping weather.  Not hot, not cold, not wet.  And that is pretty much what we have in store for this week.  And a chance of showers.

Bridge Up!

First, the news.  More of the same for Thursday and Friday.  Thursday might be a bit warmer (say, 80F in the sunny spot at Harvey West) with a lighter afternoon sea breeze.  Friday could be a bit cooler with clouds developing.  But not really too much.  The well advertised rain looks to be falling apart in the models.  To simplify it, the storm that develops tour our north west now looks like it won't push ashore until some time Saturday.  Each run has this system less and less likely to bring wide spread rain to the region, while to our north things remain pretty wet.  That is kind of good news.  While it would be good to get some solid rain down here, at least a portion of the state is beginning to see some relief.  Anyway, clouds develop late on Friday and overnight we see increasing chances of rain.  Currently, the GFS suggests we will maybe get a sprinkle some time around noonish on Saturday.  That would mean clouds through most of the day.  Expect a south wind flow and a cooler day.  Not cold, but likely hanging out in the 60s.  Everything moves east by Sunday morning.  More sun and a little warming.

Sure the models had suggested more rain through the middle of next week, but they have backed off that for the time being.  Big one lined up for next weekend, if you have any faith in that.  The important take away is that we do have an active weather pattern, and that the models tend drier as we near the storm date.  Yet, some rain has fallen in Santa Cruz in the month of October, and it would be remiss to assume we are done for the month.  Overall, though, we have a very typical fall pattern where a high pressure protects us from early season winter storms, while giving us some late summer warmth.  In the coming weeks, I see chances for onshore rain and chances for offshore heat.  All depends on how things play out.  At least we have weather again.  Stay tuned for this weekend.

Monday, October 20, 2014

Clearing, and warming, and, yeah, another chance at rain.

This is becoming a bit of a Groundhog Day thing.  I'm kind of digging it.  I was talking to a friend this morning and they commented on how normal things feel.  October should have these chances of rain, and occasional sprinkles.  It is the turn of the season.  And it should also have these gorgeous warm days.  Of course, 9 out of 10 meteorologist will tell you how not normal things are.  Hell, that is half the fun.  Anyway, the storm front last night quietly fell apart as it pushed south, and this morning was mostly sunny.  A great sunrise.  Then, around 10AM, a secondary front filled in and gave us a nice light sprinkle for about a half an hour.  Pretty much not enough to measure, but enough to wet the grass.  Bare soil sucked that stuff in quicker than it fell.  Maybe just enough to settle the dust.  The rest of the work week looks clear.  With another rain maker knocking on the door for the weekend.  This is becoming a bit of a Groundhog Day thing.  Yup, did that.

Anyway, some clouds linger overnight, especially in the local hills.  A marine layer also may develop more fully.  High pressure is building in, and strong northwest breezes will usher it in.  Forecast along the Big Sur coast is for 30 plus knot winds.  A bit lighter up here, but expect a good breeze.  We will be a warmer tomorrow, in the low to mid 70s.  By Wednesday, the high pressure will more fully develop, and while there is a chance of an offshore event developing, it is a pretty low chance.  More NW flow, but a bit lighter, and the day will be a bit warmer.  Mid to upper 70s.  Currently it looks like Thursday will be the big winner, with a good chance of topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s.  Kind of like our past Sunday.  Lighter winds.  Friday we will continue to see mostly sunshine, but a low pressure system will begin to displace the high pressure, and clouds should develop through the day.  Mid 70s.  And then we could be looking at a rainmaker.

Before I get to that, just want to note the cooler overnight temps.  I am sure you have felt the crisp mornings if you have been up early looking around.  Mid 50s for the most part.  Anyway, the rain.  Right now, the system that would run ashore overnight on this coming Friday is looking pretty wet.  But then again, the past three systems have looked pretty wet four days out, only to give us light sprinkles 2 out of 3 times.  Currently the forecast is for about half in of rain.  That would be cool, and a lot more than these past few have brought.  A lot more.  So, something to watch.  Regardless, it looks like another quick mover with sunshine and warming by Sunday.  With more similiar rain on the mid and long term.

Like was said, kind of feeling normal.  Stay tuned, and I keep you updated on this week and coming weekend.  With some luck, we will get a bit more water.

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Clearly, the weather is fall like.

Nights are slightly cooler these days, even when we have some fog or cloud cover.  Been hanging around in the upper 50s across town, but with more cool air coming our way, those over night lows will be dropping into the mid 50s by next week.  In contrast, during the summer, we barely dip below 60F most nights.  And there was that rain thing this morning.  Not sure if you knew what that stuff was.  I doubt we measure even a tenth of an inch, but around 7:30 this morning we started to pick up a drizzle at the house, that seemed to come to a stop on our way to school at 8:30.  But, yeah, everyone we say was stoked on it.  Smiles abounded.  Where else do the locals show such splendor when it rains?  Well, this might make you happy then.  More chances for rain are on the way.  And while even run of the models seems to shift the bulk of the systems more north as they come into the short term, based on this morning, I'd suspect we will see more in the coming week.  And if it is not wet, then I bet it is going to be fine and sunny.

Old and new sit side by side in Manhattan.  

This afternoon looks nice, with small swell in the water, and slight northerly winds developing.  Crisper day, as it started with cooler air, and clouds, and it will take more work to warm things up.  Tonight we will see some lingering clouds, but the marine layer is not likely to develop, with the low pressure still in charge.  So, based on that, I suspect Thursday will have a very nice morning.  Cool and crisp, with some moderate warming.  A bit warmer than today.  By Friday the next system up stream should be starting to effect our weather.  This one does not currently seem to be packing the south winds we had yesterday afternoon, which leads me to believe we could stay dry this run.  Still, greatest chance of showers will be Friday afternoon, into evening.  Still planning on clearing out mostly on Sunday, with some sunshine and warming.  Along with a chance for light winds.  And yeah, there is more surf on the way, with a possible large long period west swell for late in the weekend.  Monday could be a good one.

Anyway, more systems still upstream.  Current model runs suggest still a brushing by the first system early in the week, but with a change to strong high pressure filling in behind it.  A few days ago, several days of off and on rain was in the charts.  That too was followed by a decent strength high, but not until Friday or so.  Anyway, after this series of passing storms, we could see a return to the warmer, sunnier, more offshore weather that gets me excited to go hang out on the beach.  

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Let the Rainy Season begin!

Rain has moved into the state in the top north west corner, with Crescent City reporting light rain as of 6AM this morning.  More is to come for them, with rain in the forecast for the next week.  This morning we have fog settled on us, with a band of clear running from southwest to northeast, ahead of the cold front and rain, to our north.  Fog clears out north of Point Reyes, and it is clear to just north of Point Mendocino, along the coastline.  Pretty cool morning visible satellite image.  North of there, the frontal clouds take over, with the rain band just barely in the state.  Rain is prevalent along the OR/WA coast, and southern BC is expecting quite a bit of rain over the next five days, exceeding seven inches in areas.  It still looks like we could get a little shower, but unless a piece of this breaks off, and hits us solid, it will be hard to tell that it is rain, as opposed to foggy drizzle.  Anyway, best chances still seem to be a few hours after sunset tonight.  Don't be expecting too much.  Maybe one of you folks in the local hills will have more luck.

Central Park painters painting.

Next system up stream is still expected to arrive Friday, and it still looks to dive deeper south and hold more water.  Moderate chance for rain late Friday, and into Saturday.  And the models still suggest some rain next week, as early as Monday, with possible significant rainfall for the entire northern portion of the state by next Thursday.  While all of this is pretty far out, especially for forecasting in the shoulder season, the fact that some iteration of these systems has been on the charts for several days now, leads to growing belief that rain is on the way.  My dance lessons look to be paying off.  Anyway, more on this as we move through the current system.

A break in the grey starts later Wednesday, and Thursday should be sunny.  Clouds return on Friday, and things clear out Saturday night.  Sunday could be pleasant enough.  Highs in the upper 60s to finish the work week, and in the low 70s after that.  Monday will be clouding up again, with more chances of rain.  Tough call right now in regard to the exact weather, but plan accordingly.  If you have outdoor plans for Saturday, think about rain gear.  I will update here tomorrow or Thursday with a better idea of the timing of things for this weekend.

Monday, October 13, 2014

Living on the edge.

A whole bunch of rain systems are brewing and marching across the north Pacific this week.  We have some swell in the water thanks to the first one, which is running ashore some time tomorrow.  Three to four inches of rain for the OR/WA coastline, with some spillover into the northern reaches of California.  Pretty much all of it falling west of the Cascades.  Moderate rain down to Point Mendocino, with a chance of some light sprinkles as far south as Monterey.  Today we are seeing developing south winds from this system, and that will increase our marine layer, which is still hanging just over the water, and cool us down from yesterday.  Sunday was a nice one though.

Brooklyn summertime.  

High of 76 today becomes a high of 67 tomorrow, as fog, southwest winds and a mini cold front combine to keep us even cooler.  That chance of rain begins about mid day, and peaks just a few hours after dark.  Wednesday looks like the reverse of Tuesday, with near identical high pressure.  Chance of showers dissipates late morning, and the winds going from calm to northerly by afternoon.  Clouds should clear out before mid day.  Thursday looks nice enough, and mostly sunny, but not seeing much of a warm up.  Friday might see some slightly warmer air ahead of a second rain system that plans to scrape by just to our north.  This one looks like it will carry more water further south, but is currently modeled to drop most of that just offshore to our west.  Still, slight chance for more moderate rain later Friday and early Saturday.  Kind of promising.

Speaking of which, when we glance into the mid and longer term fantasies, we could be looking at a serious rain maker for next week, arriving mid day Monday, and lasting through Wednesday.  If we were to believe the current run, it would total up to about three fourths of an inch locally, with more in the Sierra with rain all the way down to a bit south of Point Conception.  Exciting, ain't it.  Don't hold your breath.  And don't hold it for the Santa Ana type high modeled for the following Thursday and weekend.  Just something to consider when laying out plans.  But if you do have some stuff in the yard you don't want getting wet, consider cleaning that up today.  And start getting your wellies and rain slickers out of the closet.  The wet season is starting to feel promising.

Thursday, October 9, 2014

Confidence grow for spectacular weekend, and then a rainy week for some.

First, tomorrow we will see the beginning of a nice warming and clearing trend that should last through at least Monday.  So we might be able to get away with complete fog less wonderment, but we will be warming back up a bit.  Mid to upper 70s for Friday, with Sunday peaking in the mid 80s.  As will the swell.  A decently tightly packed storm is spinning off southeast of the Aleutians, and it should bring nice head high waves to town, and overhead to double overhead surf up the coast.  Combine that with a little offshore flow, and the late weekend looks like another prime punch of swell.  Monday will be a bit cooler, but still another nice day, with minimal fog, light wind and fun surf.  Not really too much to complain about.

Speaking of not complaining, things begin to become interesting by the middle of next week.  The PNW is expected to start getting hammered with heavy rains.  The first system moves ashore next Tuesday, returning us to more of an onshore flow.  Or foggy mornings.  Wednesday we could see light rain moving through just to our north, possibly bringing us a light shower or two.  High pressure fills in behind it, returning warmth and sun to finish the week.  But, that high is being pumped up by a second, wetter storm lining up to slam the PNW late Friday, and possibly driving heavier rain south into our area for next weekend.  While these scenarios are still a 6 to 10 days out, the consistency in the model runs is driving confidence that more water is headed toward the state.  Or, in other words, you should focus on cleaning up the yard this weekend and early next week.  We could be in for some October rains.  We can only hope.  And if your yard is looking good, get outside and enjoy the weather.  This Sunday looks pretty spectacular with solid surf to ride or watch.

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Some fog, then more shine, then rain perhaps.

It is not quite summertime weather out there today, but kind of almost feels that way.  Last night, around 8PM, a thin low fog creeped into Santa Cruz.  At 10PM it was still 77F at the summit, but 59F at Pasatiempo.  That fog sure cooled us off, and when it peeled back from the west side before dawn this morning, it was quite chilly out.  That has mostly pulled away to the coast, and things will warm up into the upper 70s today.  Some light north west onshore breezes will develop today, staying just about 10 knots, perhaps stronger around the points and headlands.  Not quite kite boarding wind, and not quite surfing non wind.  Something in between.  The trend continues through the week, with a chance of sunnier and warmer weather by the weekend.

The Central Park Reservoir was looking more full than our local holes this summer. Pray for rain.  

If you like light winds, low to mid 80s and sunshine, then you have a chance at being happy this coming weekend.  Been great weather to ripen up tomatoes and this coming weekend, looks like a good time to plant some winter crop seedlings.  Not to hot, but plenty of sunshine.  We have our peas started.  And some lettuce.  Maybe we need to get in the broccoli, or Brussels sprouts.  Or Kale.  Anyway, looks like a good weekend.  Meanwhile, low pressure systems start developing in the northern Gulf, and begin moving southerly through the week.  Strong rain storms begin impacting the PNW around next Tuesday, with a slow creep toward our state by Thursday, and perhaps rain for our region by the following weekend.  Of course these storms are still way out in fantasy land, but it looks like a lot of water is coming to the west coast, with some of that making its way to California.  I'll keep an eye on this and report back.

For now, dress a little warmer in the morning, but plan for nice afternoons.  Enjoy the combo swells that are backing off in the water right now.  Mornings will be best, with lighter winds.  Moderate onshore flow in the afternoons, but spots in town should stay well protected.  Variations of the small combo swell to continue through the week, with possibly larger combo swell to build through the weekend, and a moderate sized north west ground swell peaking late Sunday.  Looks like a fun week of surf.  Almost too much fun.  So yeah, get out and enjoy what is on offer.  It looks like a great week.

Sunday, October 5, 2014

Big Dipper.

Not so much the roller coaster, and more the warmth. Or, perhaps, I should be saying WOW!  What a weekend we just had.  And a Friday.  Stellar, stellar weather.  As long as you don't mind the heat, or spent a few hours at the beach, it was pretty damn nice. Did not het a whole lot of yard work done this weekend, but I did log a little water time, and beach time, and family time.  Even collected a little bit of wood in the mountains.  But all of that is about to change very soon.  One could even see the marine layer developing in the bay and off shore during the day today.  So, yeah, it ain't gonna be so super hot on Monday,  Just in the low 80s.  Any fog that does move onshore tonight is going to burn off nice and early.  But as we go through the week, things will chill down. Until they begin to heat back up.  Yeah, autumn is tough around here.

Reflections.  Red Cliffs.  

So, as we move into Monday night, a real fog layer should develop, but the slight north winds will blow that out fairly early.  Highs should reach in the upper 70s on Tuesday, and barely to 75F on Wednesday.  Oh, so cold.  But, them things begin to rebound, and by Saturday, we could be seeing that warm high pressure building us back into the 80s.  Maybe.  As it looks now, next week could have a number of hot days.  And remember that wet storm for mid month?  Back in the line, but hitting around the 18th.  So yeah, we might even get some rain.  Who knows?  Not me, but I will be watching closely, and reporting here.  Hope you had a good weekend, and spent some time outside.  Or even scored a few waves.  Speaking of which, combo swell continues to start the week.  So, go get some, and enjoy one last morning of sunshine.  For the time being

Friday, October 3, 2014

Chicken Fricken Hot.

97F in my driveway at 4PM today.  Sure, we are in a nice toasty corner of the city, but that is extra toasty.  What a gorgeous morning it was.  Expect more of the same tomorrow.  Throw in some glassy long period combo surf, and if you ask me, this is about as good as it gets.  So loving this fine start to fall.  If you don't love this stuff, or live in Salinas, or even Felton, and can't get up to that ocean edge, then you might prefer the latter part of the weekend.  No big changes in today's report.  Just a reminder to drink plenty of fluids, and make plans for a beach day.  Sunday will be not as hot.  Monday will be fine.  Tuesday it looks like the marine layer will return.  But not much of a gradient, so still kind of a shift to fall.  Temps in the mid 70s by Tuesday.  Might see another warm spell developing Friday and for next weekend.  No rain in sight.  Stay tuned for details.

Doubt any of that snow that fell last week is lasting in the mountains.  Near Kirkwood, California.

Thursday, October 2, 2014

Drink water, there are signs of fall. And, yeah, even the NWS is coming around to the hotness.

NWS is calling for a high of 89F here on the westside today.  94F for Friday, and 91F.  Yeah.  And with light winds, and low humidity, that will feel pretty darn nice.  Down on the beaches, expect things a bit cooler, as it still looks like a very light onshore flow will develop in the heat of the day.  Late mornings will be pretty much awesome at the beaches, with the afternoons barely recording a half notch below.  Next few days look might nice.  More onshore flow develops from the NW on Sunday, and we will be noticeably cooler.  By Tuesday, we could see more of a summer time set up developing, bringing back cloud cover, fog, and perhaps drizzle.  Or, we could be lucky to see the ridge keep out the moisture, and more fall like weather continue.  But without the heat.

More jumpers.

Overall, things are looking like autumn around the state.  High are close in the valley and on the coast.  Santa Cruz will be warmer than Stockton this weekend.  But just by a bit.  The mountains are cooler, with highs at 8000 feet topping out in the 60s.  Lake Tahoe will be in the 70s.  And the NWS only issued Heat Advisories for the counties west of I-5.  Coastal, and near coastal counties, with the interior valley barely on the register.  All signs of fall.  Not summer like at all.  So, yeah, based on that, things are making a shift, and it will be more difficult to revert to summer like conditions.  Yay!

Still, our little fun with a heat wave ends Sunday.  Monday at the latest.  Very nice weather to continue.  Warm, not hot.  That big rainmaker that was on the fantasy charts for mid month is on today's run a huge bubble of a high.  So things are dynamic and far from confident.  Now to get ready to play outside.  Pretty hot out there already.