First, the news. More of the same for Thursday and Friday. Thursday might be a bit warmer (say, 80F in the sunny spot at Harvey West) with a lighter afternoon sea breeze. Friday could be a bit cooler with clouds developing. But not really too much. The well advertised rain looks to be falling apart in the models. To simplify it, the storm that develops tour our north west now looks like it won't push ashore until some time Saturday. Each run has this system less and less likely to bring wide spread rain to the region, while to our north things remain pretty wet. That is kind of good news. While it would be good to get some solid rain down here, at least a portion of the state is beginning to see some relief. Anyway, clouds develop late on Friday and overnight we see increasing chances of rain. Currently, the GFS suggests we will maybe get a sprinkle some time around noonish on Saturday. That would mean clouds through most of the day. Expect a south wind flow and a cooler day. Not cold, but likely hanging out in the 60s. Everything moves east by Sunday morning. More sun and a little warming.
Sure the models had suggested more rain through the middle of next week, but they have backed off that for the time being. Big one lined up for next weekend, if you have any faith in that. The important take away is that we do have an active weather pattern, and that the models tend drier as we near the storm date. Yet, some rain has fallen in Santa Cruz in the month of October, and it would be remiss to assume we are done for the month. Overall, though, we have a very typical fall pattern where a high pressure protects us from early season winter storms, while giving us some late summer warmth. In the coming weeks, I see chances for onshore rain and chances for offshore heat. All depends on how things play out. At least we have weather again. Stay tuned for this weekend.