Tuesday, October 28, 2014

So, what does it all mean?

Nothing significant in the way of change to the forecast to report today.  Maybe not quite as off shorey on Wednesday.  Anyway, that gives us time to discuss the meaning of it all.  And, just to be clear, I am not talking about the Meaning of it All.  That would require a bigger forum.  Rather, this progressive pattern we have been seeing; does it project an expectation for the upcoming winter?  In a word, no.  So don't go acting like the drought is a thing of the pass.  In fact, while most of the winter projections are showing average to slightly above average snowfall, none of them forecast enough to fully recover from the drought.  And those are only forecasts.  Until the water is in the reservoirs, it is best just to remain on your conservationist paths.  Anyway, what does it all mean?

We are currently in an active pattern in the North Pacific. Signs and models suggest this current pattern is likely to continue.  A pattern where a high pressure develops after a storm, drives strong north west winds, and peaks quickly, only to be weakened and pushed out of the way about every five to six days by the southern edge of a storm.  Each pass of storms shifts further and further south.  And the high pressure is lasting for shorter periods of time.  Progressive.  So, what it does mean is that for the next several weeks, we can expect a pattern where we have very nice weather for three to fours days, interrupted by a period of wind, rain and cooler weather.  And, if we look at differing seasonal forecasts, there is a general agreement for decent precipitation in the next two months.  So, it does mean you are likely to be skiing on Thanksgiving, if that is your thing.  And you are likely to be surfing moderate waves, with short periods of clean larger waves, during the next two months.  And  you are likely to be riding tacky mountain trails.  And you are likely to have decent periods to plant winter gardens.  And you are likely to start seeing the creeks flowing and the waterfalls falling soon.

Anyway, stay tuned here, and I will be sure to give you accurate local conditions, observations and forecasts.  Today there is not much to say about the coming week, other than look at yesterday's post.  As we get closer to the storm, I will have a better update.  I guess I have one more thing to add.  With that Wednesday flow not quite being as off shore as it was looking yesterday, that pretty much means the high pressure is weaker, and the storm could arrive a bit earlier.  So, yeah, more on that tomorrow.

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