Tuesday, April 28, 2015

We have variable weather.

First, an apology for not posting during all the exciting weather we have been having.  But if you really needed to know what was going on, there are hundreds of other resources.  Hopefully you are looking here because it is more fun.  Anyway, we got about a half inch of rain here at the house on the west side of town.  A pretty nice showing.  The grounds is still moist from the rain Friday night.  But let us move right into the forecasting.  Today will not be as warm as yesterday.  Temps in town moved solidly through the mid 70's on Monday.  Today we begin again with some fog.  Once that burns off we will again have some sea breeze.  Maybe better called a wind.  Warming to just about seventy degrees out there today.  Fair weather.  A real summertime feel to it.  Basically the same for Wednesday, but we may have a little less fog, and a little less wind.  The end of the week see a change though as high pressure begins to pump.

Afternoon's at Lighthouse Field are nice.

Warmer and less wind for Thursday.  And the wind shifts more northerly, leaving town a bit more protected.  Could be a nice day.  We slowly begin a moderating trend on Friday, with winds a bit lighter, maybe even beginning to shift variable to southerly with an eddy flow developing.  Mid 70s.  By Saturday we could be seeing a return to a foggy period.  This one generated by a light south westerly flow, which would mean the fog could linger through most of the day.  Welcome to June?  Or is this just May Grey?  Good weather for younger gardens.  Hopefully we get through this stuff early and have a hot and sunny August for ripening up a tomato harvest.

At least the swell coming for this weekend will hit favorable local conditions.  An impressive southwest swell should begin arriving late Friday into Saturday.  This is two overlapping swells, both with long periods.  The first at 2-3 feet near 18 seconds, the second 3-4 feet at 22 seconds.  Those heights might not sound big, but with our southerly focal points, and such deep water swell, the bigger breaks in our region could be pushing double overhead at the best times and tides.  Here in town, things will likely be running head hight to overhead through the weekend.  For those of you still learning, use caution.  These long period swell sets can be widely spaced, and travel in packs.  An ocean that one moment looks flat, can soon become a series of twenty or more waves, each piling upon the force of the prior.  Great news for competent water people.  Potential danger for novices.  And while not the size of a big winter swell, Santa Cruz faces directly into these.  If you are watching the show from the cliffs, be smart.  Stand back from the edge, and behind any railings.  Swells should be at a peak Sunday afternoon and evening.  As those begin to back off slowly through next week, a mid sized, mid to long period northwest will likely be filling in on Tuesday.  A nice few days of surf coming up.  More later.  

Thursday, April 23, 2015

Showers are coming.

More of an update hopefully tomorrow.  Pack up your yard.  Expect showers, maybe a half an inch, late Friday night and early Saturday morning.  Perhaps more, and colder rain, next week.  More to come.

Saturday, April 18, 2015

Summer like turns to winter like. Sort of.

I should mention the fog.  In the mornings.  Just like summer.  Upper 60s might be a bit cool for a summertime high, but not all that cool.  And the afternoon northwest breezes feel like summer.  Not so much the swell we are currently having.  That feels a whole lot like winter.  Next few days that will dwindle, but the morning fog will remain.  As will the cool, upper 60s afternoons.  By the time we start seeing the pattern change on Wednesday, we will start to see clouds instead of fog.  It is looking like the storm slated for them may pass a bit to our east, bringing rain, and upper elevation snow to the interior.  Showery weather could wrap around, down by the coast, especially on Thursday.  This thing looks to pass out east by Friday.  But don't expect a warming just yet.

There are some fun canyon hikes in southern desert.  Ladder Canyons, Mecca, California.

This could be the start of a wintery period that could last a few weeks.  Would't that be nice.  A few models have a second storm showing up on Friday or into the weekend.  Another one models for Tuesday or so of next week.  All could possibly bring some rain.  Wouldn't that be nice.  Again.  Don't get me wrong.  I surely enjoyed Friday.  But it is time for a change.  You might want to pick up the yard tomorrow if you are a weekend warrior.

Wednesday, April 15, 2015

A few nice days coming...

Not a whole lot of change tot he forecast today.  Nice weather developing, with highs in the upper 70s the next few days.  Downtown might hit 80F.  The winds off the coast this more are still brisk out of the north northwest.  Near shore they are still light through morning.  The next few days we will be developing slight morning offshores and light afternoon variable wind.  Should allow for some real warming inland.  Surf will see a significant increase out of the northwest around sunset on Thursday.  There is still a lot of small to mid sized short and mid period surf out there right now, along with some small longer period south swell, generating chest high surf in town, with bigger, junier surf up the coast.  It does look like a lot of the wind swell will drop through the day tomorrow, prior to the arrival of the new long period surf.  That said, we may still have a fair amount of junk in the water when this thing arrives.  Waves at deep water spots up the coast will likely be pushing double over head up the coast, with mostly chest high to overhead surf here in town.  A nice late season round of winter juice.  The swell will be short lived, dropping quickly through the day on Saturday.  With a light wind regime in place Thursday through Sunday, we should see great local conditions, and the swell should be cleaning up nicely as it drops over the weekend.  That will also mean there will be plenty of option for deciding where you will surf.

Surf and beach weather are on their way back in.  Get outside and enjoy some.

Still seeing a chance for rain next week, and a wet second half of the month on the models.  For now, get out there and play in the great weather we will be having the next few days.  And don't forget to give your seedlings a light watering after night fall a few days a week.  They don't need much.  But they likely do need some.

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Warmer, with waves, and then a decent chance for rain.

It sure felt cool the past two days.  Mostly the effect of a heavy marine layer yesterday, developed by an approaching cold front today.  Not to fret.  That storm is moving east, but not before leaving a one inch blanket of snow up high.  Been a decent April for the Sierra so far.  Too bad the rest of the season was so dismal.  Anyway, things begin to warm up tomorrow, but by Thursday, we could see the start of an off shore flow and some real nice warmth.  Upper 70s Wednesday, and just about 80F Thursday, and perhaps Friday.  Another storm system moves through to our north over the weekend.  As in British Columbia.  But that should be enough to push the high temps back down into the low 70s.  Overnight lows should be on the increase through the period, with low 40s tonight, but upper 40s by late in the weekend.  Of greater interest, for many in Santa Cruz, will be the arrival of a decent sized long period NW swell by Thursday evening.  We could see Mavericks breaking on Friday, and a decent amount of swell filling into town.  Might be the last solid winter swell of the season.

Timber Creek base at Kirkwood, back on April 1st.  Low snow conditions for sure.

Early next work week, a low pressure system is forecast to develop in the Gulf of Alaska, and begin pushing south east.  We are looking at a chance of decent rains for the middle of next week, lasting perhaps for several days.  In fact, the models are looking quite progressive.  Keeping an eye on these, but not yet holding my breath.  We really do need the rains, and will remain hopeful.  Just keep in mind we could see cooler and wetter weather beginning as early as next Tuesday.  At the very least, I'd expect a return to high temps in the 60s.  Stay tuned.

Friday, April 10, 2015

Warming and wondering.

Going to take a moment to point out how all over the place the models have been with these systems coming through.  It is spring.  And the lows do tend to cut off from the jet stream and wander any which way they will.  And it now looks like any chance for weekend rain will wander south, a hundred miles or more off the coast.  And just a few days ago this thing was looking to hammer the state with the center coming ashore near SLO.  Too bad.  That water would have been welcome.  Next system upstream is slotted to come ashore on Tuesday, and current model runs keep this one to our north.  Maybe some light showers for the Sierra.

A good weekend to play in Wilder State Park.  Check out the chicken coop.

In short, the weekend looks pleasant with temps rising into the low 70s by Sunday.  Sun and warmth likely to continue through the week, with more warming by the end of next work week.  Could be a nice run of weather.  But the weather pattern is still active to our north.  So, with a bit of luck, we could see more cold and rain later this month.  But as it looks now, it is planting season.  So get out there and get your gardens in shape.  You may want to get a few tomatoes in the ground or pots if you have not already.

Tuesday, April 7, 2015

It is rainy, right?

I can't tell, as I am sitting pretty in the desert.  A chilly desert, but that is just how I like my heat.  Not too hot.  Cool and wet in Santa Cruz today.  As in, like, winter.  By the time this weather system moves through, a wide spread inch could fall in the Bay Area.  The Santa Cruz Mountains could see slightly more, and town could see slightly less.  Next system up stream is likely to split, with the southern portion moving south, just off shore.  So, we will likely remain dry.  Perhaps the northern branch will bring additional light snow to the Sierra.  Today, a good foot will fall along the higher peaks, with a few inches down to 4000 feet and lower.  It is cool out there.

Finally it is cold and wintery in the Sierra.  Get it while it lasts.

Low 60s today in Santa Cruz.  Currently it is 49F. That is certainly chilly.  Low 40s expected tonight, and mid 60s and clearing weather for Wednesday.  Upper 60s to finish the week, and low 70s by Sunday.  There is still a chance things will change for the coming weekend, and we do see a chance of another storm impacting the region late next week.  Stay tuned.  Winter may last two weeks.  Or it may be done with this storm.

Friday, April 3, 2015

Do you feel winter in the air?

Pretty chilly out there these days.  Today should be a touch warmer than it has been, but not much.  The weekend looks like we will be mostly back in the 60s at the coast, and in the 30s at 8000 feet.  It will be even cooler by early next work week.  With a series of rain storms lined up and taking aim at NorCal.  While the bullseye with these systems will remain north of us, it does look like a cold rain, is gonna fall.  Not just yet though.  Today the sunshine should be abundant.  It is currently in the mid 60s, but the forecast is for an afternoon high of just about 70F.  Will see if things warm up.

This was early March.  More could be on the way.

The weekend will start decent, with sun and upper 60s on Saturday.  By Sunday we see an increasing chance of rain, and cooler weather.  While it is likely to be in the 60s, I would not be shocked if we stay in the upper 50s.  It will certainly feel cool, with rain likely in the north bay and good chances for Santa Cruz.  Not much.  Perhaps a tenth of an inch or two.  Still, anything is welcome.  We will see some semi-clearing, and semi-warming on Monday.  By Tuesday, a colder, and more wide spread system will impact the state.  We could see upward of a half inch of rain from this thing.  And temps will struggle to reach into the 60s.  I will watch this thing and report more as we get closer.  Fingers crossed, as right now it looks good for rain to fall across most of the state.  We should see at least a few days of rebound starting on Thursday, with another system possible beyond.  Could be that winter has arrived.  Stay tuned.