Wednesday, September 30, 2015

"Feels like midwest weather."

Or, come to think of it, did he say north west.  This morning I first heard the rain around 6:30.  I got up to pull some towels and rugs off the deck rail.  A drop or two fell on me.  But not drizzle.  Actual rain drops.  Yet quite sparse.  I assumed it was just a passing odd disturbance.  Nope.  It is still happing.  Sure, it has not been a continuous rain by any means.  One need not put on any special or protective clothing.  It is as if the rain dries as soon as it falls.  The ground never quite wets.  Very different than the drizzle we had a week or so ago.  The one that thoroughly wet the pavement even.  No, this is a very dry rain indeed.  At least it is not sloppy out.  Well, now, a bit about the weather.  It is a dry wet out there.  Low 70s.  Light wind.  Cloud cover should keep it warm tonight at nearly 60F. The current occasional rain drop fall should continue through the early morning hours.  Then this system will move out to our north east, allowing high pressure to fill back in.

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Thursday, and Friday, will likely be breezy, especially in the afternoons.  A result of the filling high pressure.  Some warming will also result.  Friday could be decently warm in wind protected corners of the county.  Upper 70s in town, and lower 80s in parts of the local mountains.  This trend will be short lived.  And here is where things kind of get interesting.  A low pressure region will displace the high, moving in from our south east.  This will allow some cooling to take place, but the wind gradient will move north, off the Mendocino coast, by late in the weekend.  At the while, a large low pressure system is developing in the mid Pacific, north of Hawaii and drifting north easterly.  Next Thursday, that thing slams into the western coastline.  This afternoon's run brings light rain to Santa Cruz, with significant rain in portions of northern California.  But, of course, we must recall that last week's models suggested a big, dry, warm high pressure on us today, when in truth, it is raining.  Guess is time that I begin to look at the day to day.

For now, more moisture through the morning hours.  Some warming and afternoon winds Thursday.  Mid 70s.  Upper 70s on Friday.  Cooling back to the mid 70s and less wind to start the next work week.  Just some wind swell in the water.  Might want to really start thinking about packing up the yard for winter.  If nothing else, today's model runs suggest that things are about to get started.  And if you surf, you'll have less time to pick up the yard, once the waves pick up.  And they will.

Thursday, September 24, 2015

Old School, plus a few degrees.

It seems like I used to see a lot of days where the low would be about 58F and the high about 72F, with a morning marine layer, and clearing to afternoon winds.  This week is kind of the same, but way different.  First of all, it was baking out there today.  The front is supposed to enter NorCal a touch earlier, so tomorrow may not see as much warmth.  NOAA is not even calling for us to escape the 70s.  Hard to believe that after today.  Still, it will all depend on when those winds will usher in some cooling air.  And those winds are looking to turn lighter each day through Sunday.  And no marine layer until then either.  Daily highs bottom out in the mid 70s.  Or rather, it stays off our shore for the most part.  All of this fueled by a low pressure pushing ashore well to our north.  Right now, the short term forecast is kind of boring.  Marine layer looks to retreat for Monday, with some warming by Tuesday.  That super burst of warmth looks less likely and seems look like more of the same with us pretty much in the upper 70s and occasionally low 80s.  Expect for today that hit 90F.  Welcome to crisp and cool autumn times.

Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Autumn is nice.

Basically we finished summer of with a nice cool down and return to more normal weather.  It will actually be a bit warmer than typical over the next few days, but not hot.  At least not oppressively hot.  We had a marine layer again this morning, but from our house it looked like it stayed just near shore.  We saw starts through the night and enjoyed another gorgeous sunrise.  I love watching the sunrise.  If you are not typically up at that time of day, I would highly suggest altering your entire life so that is the case.  It is just too nice of a part of the day not to witness.  Anyway, enough of my bias.  How about that weather?  The next few days look similiar to Wednesday.  Winds will be north westerly, strongest in the afternoons.  Each day through Friday will see slightly lighter afternoon winds.  The temps will increase accordingly.  Highs peak in the low to mid 80s on Friday.  Saturday will still be in the low 80s, but with a strong north west gradient developing, things will cool off again by Sunday, back down into the upper 70s.  Gasp.

Brucco feast day.  Tossing flags in the Campo.  Siena, Italy.

In the mid term, there is another system developing in the Gulf early next week, but it looks like it quickly gets shunted north into Alaska.  Still, it is nice to see some energy sticking around.  Around the same time the jet stream might energize near the Kuril islands.  So there are those signs of fall.  Now, if we could have them happen in the same place at the sign time, we could get the surf season started.  Until then, clean the house, get ready for rain, and ride some trails.  Or try to get turns in anyway.  I did this morning.  I got four or five turns in fact.  Enjoy this fine weather we have on tap.

Monday, September 21, 2015

That was a fine run of beach weather.  More tolerable weather for other endeavors arrives tomorrow.  We might even get to enjoy an approaching marine layer this evening.It is trying its best to develop.  Regardless, cooler air and stronger on shore winds will be the call for tomorrow, with high temps dropping back down into the low 70s.  Much cooler than today.  It is 6:45, and is likely still warmer than the high for Tuesday.  Relief.  For a bit.  We will need to watch that marine layer, as it might have a hard time forming as on Wednesday another weak and broad low begins to dominate the north east Gulf of Alaska.  Basically, we could see more warm air pumped our way with highs building back into the upper 70s for Wednesday.  Right now the end of the work week looks plenty warm, buts highs seems to only build to about 80F.  So, like, really nice weather.  Maybe a chance of fog in the mornings, depending how this next system moves.

Help save this wonderful boat.  My friend Deyass has been restoring this beauty for two years.  Now he just needs the funds to rig the craft,  Please take a look at his Kickstarter campaign and consider contributing.  

By the weekend, stronger on shore winds again develop.  Potentially very strong.  Get your kites out.  Which, of course, means not quite as war, with temps back down in the low to mid 70s, and a greater chance of morning fog.  Mid term, as in the middle of next week, there is a chance to see the gradient move north, along with the high pressure dome, potentially bringing back more intense heat.  Go figure.  Of course a shift here or there turns that pump of warmth into a south flow fog bank of doom.  But I doubt we see one of those.  I don't think I've seen one all summer.  But I have seen plenty of heat.  Tomatoes are going off!

Friday, September 18, 2015

A mountain thing.

Warming and calming weather coming.  Mid to upper 70s today and into the 80s along the coast for the weekend.  The real heat will be in the Santa Cruz Mountains.  Want some summer fun?  Head up to Ben Lomand and hit the river.  Temps today will be in the mid 80s, and pushing into the 90s Saturday.  The right spots could hit 100F on Sunday, and it will still be in the 90's Monday.  Final blast of summer heat for ya'll in them hills.  Coast remains cooler, in the low to mid 80s.  Proximity to the ocean will be everything.  Morning off shores developed this morning up the coast. but it is still strong out of the northwest just off the coast.  That should come near shore this afternoon.  That gradient breaks down tonight and we will have a few days of clam.  Have a great weekend.

When in Rome, wear t-shirts with ridiculous English words and eat gelato.  Ice cream weather coming! 

Next week we see the temps dip as that marine layer returns Monday night and south flow could develop by Tuesday.  That would keep the grey around through mid day.  This will be driven by a developing broad, but weak, low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday.  This system will slowly drift south through the middle of the week.  As it get closer to the Canadian border later in the week, it would effectively draw in the fog moisture returning us to sun, and warming.  There is about a zero chance for rain south of the CA/OR border right now, but this is still a promising development and a shift toward a more autumn like pattern.  Some small, mid period swell would develop if this comes to pass.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Crank it back up.

That is what happens when a storm does not quite push cold air into the region.  The bubble rebounds, and goes fat, before settling to its normal large summer self.  Mid 70s the next two days, with some afternoon winds.  Building through 80F on Saturday, with morning off shores, and slack winds through mid day.  Sunday we get a taste of good old hot, perhaps shooting through the upper 80s here in town, but by Monday, things mellow.  It will still be warm, but back into the 70s, driving down to the low 70s by mid week.  No real marine layer in sight.  I've said that before, but this weather almost looks more like fall than summer.  I hope so.  I love the sunrise.  Get out there and enjoy this coming weekend.  It is going to be quite nice.  Especially if you like to play down by the water.  Or like to check out the whales at Mitchells from the street.

Morning Prova lining up, day prior to the Palio.  

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Pulled way back.

The system has a whole different look this morning, centered on the (relative to California) north coast, with over an inch forecast.  Rain line along the coast stays north of Point Reyes, with perhaps a sprinkle further south in the Sierra.  SoCal does not really draw in any moisture.  Ho, hum.  This morning in Santa Cruz it was crisp.  The sky was mostly clear, with a few sparse clouds.   These should develop further through the day, and we are expecting a fair amount of cloud cover late in the day.  Could be a nice sunset.   We might see some fog misting tonight and into the morning, but now it looks like we will not see any actual rain.  So, lighter than Monday morning's sprinkle.

Warming after today.  Along with clearing nights.  Expect some crisp late summer mornings, like today's, if that sky is clear.  Days warm into the mid to upper 70s and eventually to around 80F for the weekend.  Still on track.  Some bump in swell should arrive later this evening, with both a long period south and a mid period north developing.  Light morning winds with moderate plus afternoon north west winds for the work week, with less wind for the weekend.  Perhaps even with morning off shores.  Oh, the smell of fall.

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Trending toward like maybe there might be a bit of drizzle.

Some of today's runs are suggesting a more dispersed system on Wednesday, as things move ashore.  This could help bring some very light rain to the Santa Cruz Mountains, with lesser amounts in the bulls eyes, such as around Tahoe.  The Sierra for instance, should receive about two tenths of an inch less than what was forecast yesterday.  But, this would mean more valley rain in the north, and coastal and mountain rain through the central part of the state.  Overall, we could, as a state, receive a bit more water from this system than what we thought yesterday.  Such wonderful news.  We will see something like one one hundredth of an inch.  Yeah.  Not much.  Still, watch for the potential of developing drizzle and even showers on Wednesday evening, and into Thursday morning.  We could use any little bit we can get.

Carabinieri gallop at the Prova Generale on July first.  Piazza del Campo, Siena, Italy.  

Otherwise, not a whole lot of change to the forecast.  Weekend will perhaps be not quite as warm and lovely, but still into the upper 70s with a chance of 80F.  And clear mornings.  So, still pretty damn nice.  Enjoy the last few days of summer and get ready to welcome in autumn.  There are carts of pumpkins sitting just up the coast ready to start gourd season.  And now that I mention produce, you may have noticed your cherry tomatoes popping more since the rain.  It is a good idea to get out and harvest anything just a bit ready and window ripen them before this next rain.  The green fruit can more easily absorb the excess water.  Beans on the other hand are loving this newly evenly wet soil.  We still have a few good months of summer garden left.  You may even see another few fruit set this coming weekend, but soon we will be into the just growth and ripen stage of things.

Anyway, cool the next few days.  Clouds and fog.  Some clearing this afternoon.  More clouds build through the day Wednesday.  A chance of rain exists.  Warmer and dryer Thursday.  A nice weekend ahead.  Oh, and pretty weak waves out there, but improving slightly for later in the week.  I imagine the mountain bike trails have a nice new tack and could get a refresh on Wednesday night.  Enjoy.

Monday, September 14, 2015

A confluence of factors leave me asleep at the wheel.

It drizzled on the west side of town this morning.  The roads were wet.  I had a great day at the Boardwalk with my son yesterday.  The sun never really came out.  It never got hot.  We did ride the flume three times, but it never quite felt hot enough to want to get that wet.  I saw the grey this weekend, and figured that remnants of Linda were indeed having their effect on the local weather.  Along with improved marine layer conditions.  And i actually saw the chance of rain posted.  But I never figured it would actually happen. Or bother to write about it.  So, at about 7:10 this morning, right after looking out at a wet deck, I was in the yard collecting tools and toys that are not supposed to get wet.  Immediately afterward i felt a little foolish, assuming the wetness would soon cease an the sun would soon come out.  Well, it drizzled off and on all morning, things are still wet, and the sun is just now trying to make an attempt to poke out.  And man is it chilly.  I hit that one on the head.  Upper 60s today.  And through Wednesday.

September, 2012.  Santa Cruz Boardwalk.  It was not this foggy down there this Sunday, but it was not sunny either.

We should see more sun after today, with some attempt at ridging tomorrow.  Moderate northwesterlies for Tuesday afternoon to result.  But a low pressure system, likely fueled by one of the many dissipating tropical systems will push south along the coast and clip us from the north on Wednesday.  There is currently no local rain forecast for this event, but this event is going to bring some rain to the Sierra, the north coast, and energize tropical weather in the southern tip of the state.  Nothing wide spread, but plenty fun.  We will remain cool and cloudy.  We could see more drizzle or rain this evening and on Wednesday night/ Thursday morning.  Could.  At least some grayness and coolness.

High pressure builds on Thursday, bringing us back into the mid 70s.  And Dryer.  We could return to more clear nights, with light afternoon on shores.  More good tomato weather.  Warmth could build and gets us back to the low 80s for the weekend.  And maybe offshore.  Super nice.  Not the oppressive heat you can not escape from, like the previous week.  I call it oppressive only because it is.  I do not mean to suggest that I don't enjoy that weather.  As I do.  From time to time.  Glad to be back to this though.  It felt awesome out there this morning.  And the fine weather coming to finish the week and last through the weekend is going to feel awesome.  For now, the dust has settled.

Oh, and the Gulf of Alaska is starting to look like it is becoming active with more systems up there in the mid and long term chart.  Will be watching and writing.

Friday, September 11, 2015

So much for that no marine layer in sight thing...

There was a touch of one this morning.  Not at sunrise, but soon after.  Warm enough today, but the high pressure is breaking down.  Expect a similiar start to the dat tomorrow. Mid 80s out there right now.  Low 80s for Saturday.  Upper 70s Sunday and Monday.  Tuesday could be chilly even, with highs un the upper 60s.  Things warm bak up to the upper 70s for the end of next work week.  Sunday and Monday could have a lingering marine layer in the mornings.  Or not.

Thursday, September 10, 2015

Cooler, then cooling.

Forecast for today is quite a bit cooler than anticipated. Mid 80s here in town.  It should stick there through Saturday, which actually might be the warmest of the next few days.  Upper 80s on Saturday, then dropping to the upper 70s on Sunday.  By the middle of next week, we should be back down into the low 70s.  No real marine layer in sight, so continued splendid weather.  Afternoon winds should remain in the moderate range, with them turning lighter by Sunday, and even shifting to the SW for Monday.  Nothing too exciting in the mid and long range right now.  Summer is slowly turning to autumn.  I'll try to write more of a long term forecast this weekend.  Enjoy the warmth.

Aquila's Knight.  Just be glad you are not this guy in the heat.  It was about 100F in the plaza this day.

Wednesday, September 9, 2015

Heat gets a longevity boost.

If you love it, you love it.  If you hate it, you hate it.  We are headed to the beach in an hour, so I think we are loving it.  The heat that started on Saturday has gotten another boost and Santa Cruz is expected to stick in the 90s through the the work week.  The flip side of it is that the cooling, when it does arrive, will be more significant than thought.  It will feel pretty cool by the middle of next week as the daily highs plummet down to the low 70s.  More than 20 degrees cooler than today and tomorrow.  But let me share some details.  Sunny days continue.  Mid 90s for today and Thursday.  Low 90s on Friday.  Overnight lows in the low 60s make for some good blooming and fruit setting temperatures.  In other words, tomato season continues to go off.

San Antimo.  Tuscan country church.

By Saturday, we see our daily high drop into the mid to upper 80s.  Upper 70s on Sunday.  Mid to low 70s to start next work week.  As those day time highs drop, so will the overnight lows, which will drop back into the upper 50s by Sunday night.  Not too cold for tomatoes, but not ideal.  We may even begin to see some return of the marine layer by Monday night, but not really expecting much more than patchy fog to begin the week.

The surf will be subsiding slowly all week.  More than a few tropical systems are swirling through the Pacific, with one headed toward the Gulf of Alaska.  While it is driving swell toward British Columbia, we should see some small side band swell from it later in the week.  Another system, off of Cabo,  will send swell to SoCal from the south east.  Still another in the eastern Pacific may recurve and send more energy for next week.  All this while the strongest of three Kelvin waves push across the Pacific, which only means that the El Nino is continuing to build.  So after all this great weather on tap this week, you may want to begin to think about prepping for this coming winter.  Obviously, get your yard in order.  But also, shop for some rain gear.  Remember that stuff we used to use?  Boots.  Coats.  Pants.  It is looking likely that we will see some rain events this winter.

Tuesday, September 8, 2015

Warmth continues...

So much for moderation.  We stick in the 90s to start the week, and hang in the 80s until the weekend.  We have had a lot of warmth this summer.  The tomatoes are stoked.  Kind of wish I tried corn and peppers this year.  Over night lows are in the low 60s.  Here is the break down.  Very slight cooling as we head through the work week.  Light westerly afternoon breezes.  It will be quite nice with daytime highs today in the mid 90s and dropping into the upper 80s by Wednesday, and then sticking there through the work week.  We could see cooling for the weekend, bringing us back into the more typical upper 70s.  A stellar week is on tap.  Oh, and no fog.  It makes you wonder if you are really in Santa Cruz.  In summer.

Tuscan countryside.

I'll take a look at the mid and long term later today, and hope to update here tomorrow.  In the short term, just go hit the beach.  It is going to be great out there.  And I should mention there are still a few powerful south swells out there, so use caution.  Surf moderates through the rest of the week, but we should still see plenty of fun surf.  September is awesome.

Friday, September 4, 2015

Fair and improving.

Typical decent summer weather on tap.  While the fog was thick on Tuesday, and present on Wednesday, on Thursday we watched the sun rise.  Not bad for early September.  The rest of the week, it looks like the marine layer will be not a part of our weather pattern.  In other words, a good time to get away form the city lights of Santa Cruz, drive up the coast and gaze at some stars.  Overnight lows are lifting into the upper 50s, and highs will be into the low 80s for the holiday weekend.  Mid 70s on Friday.  But with a good deal of sea breeze.  That wind should lighten as we move through the weekend.  And we settle back into the upper 70s for next week with a continued light wind pattern.

Always being watched inside the Duomo in Siena, Italy.

So far the surf in September has been less than spectacular, but way better than most of August.  The south Pacific has stirred a bit, but looks like it is settling down, as is typical late in the summer season.  Perhaps we will see a few more decent swells, but really we are waiting for the north to turn on.  In a tropical sense, it has, with four named storms roaming about the ocean, with another budding off the Mexican coast.  We could begin to see some of these systems recurve to the east as they are currently drifting north.  Mixed with a little arctic juice, and we could see some decent west swells developing by mid month.  Currently it is wait and see as high pressure is still the dominant pattern in the north.  Waiting and watching for the turn toward autumn.

Wednesday, September 2, 2015

More warmth returning to town.

August felt like a fine, warm month.  Like summer somewhere that is not Santa Cruz. Of course, we had some fog.  And some chill.  But it sure was a warm one.  September arrived with a drizzle.  I thought about posting up about that forecast, but was busy with play dates.  And I really did not expect it to materialize.  But yesterday we got enough here on the west side to wet the pebble walkways in my yard.  The ground, on the other hand, did a plenty good job of absorbing anything that hit it.  So, the trend for this week will be moderating temps and then some significant warming for the holiday weekend.  And there should be a continuation of the small to moderate swell in the water.  Get the barbie ready.  It is time to sit back, relax and grill a little.

The Palio.  Siena, Italy

Marine layer is thin this morning.  Should burn off shortly.  Highs in the low 70s.  More of the same tomorrow.  But we begin to see less intrusion by the marine layer by Thursday night, which will send us into a warming trend.  First, we see some gusty north west winds keeping that layer away, then by Sunday, a high pressure dome might begin to protect us.  That would mean much less wind.  And more warmth.  Mid to upper 70s on Saturday and mid 80s by Sunday.  That should be the peak, but Labor Day itself looks like it should stay quite nice.

What is interesting is how autumn like things look in the high Sierra.  Typically, it would be hot up in Tahoe this time of year.  It is not.  Lows have been dipping into the 30s at elevation, and Friday night should dip below freezing.  Daily high temps dip into the 50s mid week, by rebound into the mid 60s for the weekend.  Odd that in summer the coast will be hitting the 80s and the Sierra only the 60s.  That spread is more typical of winter than summer.  Perhaps we are seeing the turn.  SOmething to watch.