Monday, March 28, 2016

Cold Days

Upper level cold trough coming down from the north today.  You can feel it.  A bit brisk out there this morning.  Nice and clear though.  And that looks like the forecast over the next few days.  Moisture from this system will be minimal in Santa Cruz.  If we get any at all.  The winds look like they will peak this evening in the 30 mph range, before subsiding for the early morning hours.  Moisture will likely remain to our north.  Would could develop cloud cover.  If we do, lows will be in the upper 40s tonight.  If we don't they could drop into the low 40s. Crisp.  Tomorrow will range from the upper 50s to low 60s, depending on how much sun we get.  More of the same through the week, with warming and sun for Friday and the weekend.  Best chances for rain look like they might be on Wednesday evening, but honestly it looks like the rain will stay to our north and along the Sierra Crest this week.  So, cool, crisp, breezy and dry here in town.  Don't forget to water that garden if this is the case.

Thursday, March 24, 2016


Spring has done it.  We are not done with rain, but in other parts of the world, spring is known for showers.  And flowers.  We tend to think of rain as a winter event and flowers, well, those happen all year.  Anyway, a gorgeous day brewing out there today.  I recorded 73F in my sunny concrete driveway yesterday afternoon.  Pretty much recorded high 60s elsewhere in town.  More of the same for today.  The evening should be nice with the late day sunshine.  Similar on Friday.  It might be even warmer on Saturday.  Then on Sunday, a cold front arrives.  Day time temps will be a touch cooler, but we will really feel it after dark, as the night time lows again drop into the mid 40s.  Kind of like last Monday morning.

Corn is the call.  Or protected north facing coolies holding winter snow.

There is a large, cut off low coming out of the north, as our local high pressure retrogrades out to sea.  This will allow for late season arctic air to move south.  Right now the details are hard to see, but this system will be effecting the state all of next week.  It has very little water with it.  Although, if the high pushes further west, the low may be able to pick up water off the ocean.  That would change things.  Currently, we see chances for showers early next work week, lasting through the week.  Right now the models suggest that Thursday would be the heaviest chance for rain in Santa Cruz.  More to come.  It is spring.  Who knows what this thing will do.  It could even completely miss us if the high stays centered.

Monday, March 21, 2016

Moist Monday

We got a little rain yesterday here in town.  A steady drizzle fell for several hours in the afternoon.  About a tenth of an inch.  More is expected through mid day today and through the evening.  We could see up to a quarter inch fall, then clearing on Tuesday.  Highs will be on the cooler side, around 60F.  Then on Wednesday, we see a little more clearing and a little more warmth.  A new sizable swell also to arrive this evening and last through mid week.  We are looking at another chance for rain again next week.  More to come.

Friday, March 18, 2016

Winter ain't over yet.

Actually, today kind of feels like a June morning, with a slate grey sky and sea.  It was cool early this morning.  Nothing like yesterday's warmth.  That felt like summer some where not along the coastal bluffs.  As we move into the weekend, we see the arrival of a change in weather.  Cool today.  Cloud cover is kind of fog cover, and will likely burn off a bit through mid day.  Still, with lack of real warming through the first part of the day, we will top out in the low 60s today.  And the rain is on the way.  At least I think.

The Emerald Bay Chutes.  Lake Tahoe, California.

Saturday will be slightly warmer, due to cloud cover overnight, and a southerly flow developing in from of the storm.  Mid 60s, with plenty of clouds.  By Sunday the rain systems begin to push in from the northwest.  There is some disagreement with the models, but it looks like we will see some sort of rain event.  The GFS has us getting wet starting Sunday, with light accumulations.  More of a general regional misting event during the day.  We could see stronger rain showers overnight on Sunday, and again on Monday night.  Tuesday will be a transition and drying day.  Even though it is mid day on Friday, it is hard making a guess as to how significant the rain fall will be.  Again, the GFS.  It is the wettest, and suggests about a half inch total in town.  Perhaps a bit more, especially along the southerly facing hillier parts of town.  Still, not a whole lot.  We are along the southern fringe of the system.  Of what we do get, it looks like Monday evening will be the wettest of the period.

This system is pretty good news for the areas north of us.  They are looking at wide swaths of area collecting rain measured in several to many inches.  Not so great to the south where nothing is forecast.  After this system, the weather looks clear for several days.  Storm details hopefully some time tomorrow.  And a look at next week.  Enjoy this one.  Who know what more will come.  I'm hopeful for a wet April, but around this time of the season, you need to get out and stomp in some puddles before spring fully sets in.

Wednesday, March 16, 2016

Fun in the sun.

Fine weather out there today.  A slight off shore this morning.  Sunshine abounds.  Warming through the day.  Look for mid to upper 70s in town.  Even West Cliff Drive might hit 70F this afternoon.  Got to love winter in Santa Cruz.  And while this nice weather should last a few more days, the real winter has not left the stage yet.  Today looks like the peak of fineness.  Get out there and gulp it in.  Thursday looks similiar; perhaps a touch cooler.  By Friday, the highs drop back into the upper 60s.  By Saturday, on shore flow returns, cooling things a touch more.  And bringing clouds.  By Sunday, well, by evening at least, we could see the return of light rain.  By Monday, like actual rain.  Currently the forecast totals is not for a whole lot of rain locally.  About a quarter inch here.  A good amount more for points north and down into the central Sierra.  By this time next week, we should be bak under a dome of high pressure.  More to come.

Winter is not finished yet.

Sunday, March 13, 2016

Big Surf; Big Wind.

No real change from yesterday's forecast.  Surf will pick up today and this evening into the XXL range.  Some of the OR buoys and the CA offshore buoy are reading 23 feet at 17 seconds currently.  That is quite some swell.  We are expecting over 15 feet of deep water swell to arrive by night fall.  With the long periods, that is going to create some very large surf.  It will remain quite large through mid day Monday.  Be careful in places where either the cliff is eroding into the sea, or the waves typically come up and over during the winter.  I doubt too many will venture out into the water, as we are also experiencing strong south west flow.  Which will increase overnight, as the final wave of this wet period moves through.  So far last night and today we have tallied over a half inch of rain here in town.  More to come tonight.

Fair and warm Tuesday through the end of the work week.  Some cooling for the weekend.  More later.  Time to go stomp around a bit during this break.

Saturday, March 12, 2016

Two more days.

Been busy traveling into the dead zone of no internet connectivity.  I feel lucky.  But, I'm back.  At least for a little while.  It looks like we will have two more days of rain, and then high pressure is to return.  With it being mid March, we could see some significant warming in the coming week.  For now, we are grey, and wet.  Not much rain expected during the day today.  What does come, will show up later, and into the evening.  Showery during the day, with a increased chance of rain overnight.  A cooler airmass has set in.  Today we will not get out of the 50s.  Tonight will drop into the upper 40s.  More of the same on Sunday, but with more rain.  In fact, the rain coming in Sunday night looks pretty wild, with winds back up on the increase.

Rain will persist through early Monday morning, making that commute into work tricky.  Things will subside fairly quickly by late morning.   When all is tallied, we could see and inch and half of rain fall in town.  Add that to the  that fell since .8" Wednesday, and we are in the ball park of two plus inches for this part of the storm cycle.  No real change to the drought conditions thus far into March, and with a dry period looming ahead of us, not expect much to change for the better.

Daytime highs will climb into the upper 60s by mid week.  A clear sky will allow for a few crisp mornings into the mid 40s.  Then that spring airmass warms with nighty lows of about 50F and daytime highs in the low to mid 70s.  Until the next storm.

Tuesday, March 8, 2016

More rain a coming.

Apologies.  I ventured to the snow, where there is no internet, and then left my computer there.  Now I am catching up with a post.  There is drizzle out there tonight. About a three and a third inches of rain fell in Santa Cruz over the weekend.  Not a bad bump.  And we are looking at perhaps another three inches in the week ahead.  NorCal looks like it is gonna git walloped.  Bullseye of 12-15" over the next seven days around Shasta.  For now, we see light drizzle in Santa Cruz this evening.  We accumulated a tenth of an inch so far.  We see a chance of rain on Wednesday.  A pretty decent chance for light showers.  It will be a bit warmer in the low 60s.  Thursday looks like we see an increased chance for showers, especially later in the day.  It will be a bit warmer again in the mid 60s.  That warmth is ahead of the next system that looks like it will hit Thursday night into Friday.

We could see about an inch of rain from Thursday night through Saturday morning.  We could see a bit of a break on Saturday with colder air in place, keeping the high in the 50s.  By night time, a wave just to our north may drop south and bring a half inch or so over night.  Sunday looks showery ahead of the next system Sunday night.  This again looks to bring a half inch.  Even colder air in place Monday, with continued showers.  Showery weather continues through mid week, then perhaps a few days's break.  Winter is going out with a bang.

Friday, March 4, 2016

Night Rains.

Ooops - never published this the other day.  Read in conjunction with today's post below...

I'm going to up the fore cast to two tenth of an inch of rain here in town overnight.  Rain could linger a bit into the morning, but it looks kind of dry by Friday afternoon.  It felt kind of warm around 1PM today, with the sun breaking through the thin clouds.  The ceiling has gotten thicker, and lower,  and that sun is going down.  It won't be cold tonight, due to that thick cloud cover.  Rain looks likely in the hours around midnight.  Friday will be another warm one, as the cold air mass will still be well north.  We see another round Friday night, beginning around midnight, with heavy rain fall through about 6AM.  We could see a quarter inch of rain fall in that period.  With light rain and showers through mid day Saturday.  By night fall, we the third over night storm.  This one will carry a wallop.

Rain will begin to fill back in around night fall on Saturday and build to a crescendo after midnight.  The coastal bulls eye for this one will well south of here, south of the community of Big Sur.  They will be expecting four or more inches of rain.  We are looking at one in a quarter to one in a half, with more in mountain pockets.  Have your erosion controls ready by then.  Hell, you should have them ready now.  Anyway, this system will shift further south on Sunday, ushering in colder air.  Rain will continue, but will be much lighter and more showery.  High in the low 60s Sunday, with overnight lows dropping below 50F for Monday morning.  We will have another wave of rain on Sunday night.  This one is looking milder, with rain falling after midnight mostly.  Maybe a half inch.

Monday night we take off.  No rain.  Bet it will feel wet out.  Winter is back folks.  And not just for the weekend.  She has the whole week planned out for you.  We just are not sure how it will all play out.  GFS is keeping things north of us until the weekend.  Could make for some nice sunny days.  Or, that could be a mistake, and we get pounded.  Regardless, every models has us getting hit pretty hard next Saturday.

So far, so good.

We received .17" of rain thus far here on the west side.  Still, we have a pretty significant forecast shift.  Strongest system looks like it will be Sunday night.  Not Saturday.  The Saturday night storm still looks solid.  Sunday night looks solid plus.  We get the coastal bullseye of an inch plus, from Marin down through Big Sur.  This does not look like just locally high amounts of precipitation, but rather regionally high totals.  That will equate to a lot of run off.  After the three progressive storms before it, the ground will be well wetted, and small stream and urban flooding looks likely.  Also expect winds over the next few stormy nights.  Rain tonight.  Briefly heavy.  Between a quarter and half inch locally.

Brian drops in near Red Lake Peak on Carson Pass.  President's Day, 2016.

Still expecting cooler weather Sunday into Monday.  Not quite cold.  We could see a break Tuesday and Wednesday, with more storms for Thurs-Fri and the weekend and coming week.  Get ready.

Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Here it comes.

Remember that train of storms mentioned a while back?  Well, the break through storm is arriving now.  You likely feel the crispness and breeziness that is about.  And the thin cloud cover that is filling in.  Cirrus, I was told today. There is also a marine layer creeping out there today.  Anyway, we top out in the mid 60s today.  By this evening, we should see an increase in cloud cover, and a chance for some light showers starting Thursday morning.  From the model runs I've seen, this looks like a really light hit here locally.  Here in town, something like a tenth of an inch, with a bit more in the favorable spots in the mountains.  But, it is a door opener.  And we see a chance of rain stretched out over the next ten days.  Things do like they clear out later in the day Thursday, so the sun set could go off.  Friday will likely start dry, but by nightfall, rain is looking likely.  This time falling mainly overnight.  This time more in the realm of a third of an inch of rain.  Then things begin to turn on.  Like really on.

The surf will take a storm toward the stormier side starting tomorrow.

Saturday will be windy and wet.  So will Sunday.  A cold front will pass through Saturday evening, and will bring with it plenty of moisture.  Sunday morning will be crisp in the upper 40s.  The day time highs will drop to the low 60s.  There does look like there will be a break by mid day on Monday.  Tuesday mid day, we begin to see another round of possible rain.  So, in short, it is going to be rainy for a bit.  Looks like through the following weekend and into that next week.  Details are hard to pin down right now, as much of this is still five or more days out.  But it will be wet.  And the Sierra is expecting a big boost to the snow pack.  Which is good news after nearly a month of settling with just one storm for the period.  The pack has dropped several feet across the board.  At least my buddies wood pile is melted out again.

Saturday we are looking at a forecast of an inch plus of rain.  For the period Sunday through Monday, about two.  Tuesday and Wednesday, about a half inch.  So, those are looking like your drier days for the period, as another system winds up to us some time between Thursday and next weekend (March 12/13).  Get ready to handle plenty of water, because winter is coming back to remind us that it is not over just yet.  Oh, and this all has a bit more of that El Nino signature.  That is good news for SoCal.