Wednesday, July 16, 2014

It is not that it has not been interesting.

We did actually get some rain the other day.  And it was quite wide spread on the south facing slopes.  That is pretty interesting for July.  And right now the remnants of a western Pacific typhoon are formed into a small storm in the Gulf of Alaska.  Also interesting for July.  And while we have had short periods of strong north west winds, it has been a light year, with less upwelling.  The water is warm.  For here.  A lot of folks are hopeful for an El Nino, and this weather bodes well.  But there is chatter that the warm water pool is dissipating near the Galapagos, which does not bode well.  Anyway, that is all long period mumble jumble.  Even if one does develop, its strength, timing, and a handful of luck still determine the outcome.  But my bones tell me its gonna be a wet fall.  You are probably not yet mid way through your summer plans.  Hell, you might still be planning.  Don't let years of drought get you complacent.  Get things done early.  Then you can just enjoy things come fall.  Anyway, some weather.

April sky over Palm Desert.  Just came across these when digging around.

Fog at times.  Don't ya know.  Not much change over the next few days.  Low 70s.  By the weekend, we could see earlier clearing and a bit more warmth.  Cool summertime in Santa Cruz.  Great weather for working outdoors in.  Pretty good for surfing.  There are a bunch of small mid to long period swells out there right now and for the next few days.  Go get some glassy goodness.  Bet the light has been killer for hiking and biking.  Or shooting off a roll of figurative film.

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Gradient gone; Fog moves in with light south flow.

No, not the super serious stuff, but a little more gloom than today even.  South flow is setting into place lasting through about the work week.  You can see the fog bank moving back into town already.  It should stick around for the week, with some patchy afternoon clearing.  But this stuff likes to linger.  Good news for those who like to surf north or south of town.  Steep, but decent south swell fades with minimal help from north west wind swell.  Still, the glass is out there.  Not going to get too warm either, with the daily highs sticking to the upper 60s.  Watch your gardens for signs of encroaching molds.  If you find it, pluck it, and throw it in a bag.  Once that stuff gets a footing, it is all over.  Maybe a change and some warming by Friday and likely for the weekend.  But nothing stellar.  Morning fog still, and with the clearing will come stiff breezes.  But at least it will move into the mid 70s.

Wednesday, July 2, 2014

I know. Big question. Will you be able to see fireworks on Friday?

But before that, this weather today is a bit weird.  Already afternoon, with a 13 knot north west wind on the buoys and it is still grey up top.  Should clear soon.  Don't be expecting a quick warm up though.  Low 70s.

Last July, this swell showed up and lit up this little spot just south of the city.

Before I get to the forecast, I have to say I'm a bit sorry I don't take this blog more seriously and post up daily in the summer.  Ultimately, the weather is less eventful with the long days.  Sure, how the fog and sun play can change occasionally, but super exciting things rarely happen.  On Monday morning I was enjoying a pleasant beach day with the family.  I had already enjoyed a Saturday up the coast, and was expecting Monday to be even toastier.  It was a touch cooler, but hey, it was yet noon.  Then some fog started to develop.  And the breeze seemed to work its way into the bay.  Well, the tide was on the rise any way, so we packed up our gear and headed up the cliff to sit for our lunch.  We watched the waves.  Some of the best we had seen in a while.  As I looked south toward Monterey, I could see the thick, grey, fog bank.  I pulled out my phone, and yup, the outer buoy south of SF all had a south breeze.  I sat there with my carrots and watched the June Gloom move in.  On July 1st.  It was pretty cool.  As south flow fog goes, this one was a quick stop.  Town cleared out on Tuesday afternoon.  The coast stayed grey and calm and beautiful.  The sun and north flow return today.  How about the holiday weekend?

Well, let's guess a bit.  It does look like the pressure gradient will develop near Mendocino over the next few days and as that pulls back away from the coast, we could see fairly slack winds on Friday.  If south flow were to develop, the coast would be pretty fogged in.  SF, HMB and SC would be thick grey and fireworks would just be flashes of lights in the fog.  Kind of cool, but not super cool.  And we won't be able to see across the bay from here in town.  Now, if instead the gradient hugs the coast locally, the northwest winds would keep things clear.  Maybe clear enough to see Aptos, or Sand City even.  I bet on inbetween.  Enough wind develops during the day to clear the sky, but not enough to keep it out of Monterey Bay.  With some luck, we might see over to Aptos.  But that is all guess work.  These high pressure systems are fickle.  Part of why I don't try to forecast them too much.

That said, it looks like we could see the winds lighten, but shift north west for the weekend.  That would mean grey mornings and sunshine before lunch here in town.  Flow could shift south for the start of next work week.  That spells grey all day kind of stuff.  For those who surf, things have been fun the last few days.  A few steep south swells are moving toward us, showing up for the Fourth and the weekend.  Could be fun, especially on the Eastside.   Get some.  Been a slow start to the south swell season.