Wednesday, July 2, 2014

I know. Big question. Will you be able to see fireworks on Friday?

But before that, this weather today is a bit weird.  Already afternoon, with a 13 knot north west wind on the buoys and it is still grey up top.  Should clear soon.  Don't be expecting a quick warm up though.  Low 70s.

Last July, this swell showed up and lit up this little spot just south of the city.

Before I get to the forecast, I have to say I'm a bit sorry I don't take this blog more seriously and post up daily in the summer.  Ultimately, the weather is less eventful with the long days.  Sure, how the fog and sun play can change occasionally, but super exciting things rarely happen.  On Monday morning I was enjoying a pleasant beach day with the family.  I had already enjoyed a Saturday up the coast, and was expecting Monday to be even toastier.  It was a touch cooler, but hey, it was yet noon.  Then some fog started to develop.  And the breeze seemed to work its way into the bay.  Well, the tide was on the rise any way, so we packed up our gear and headed up the cliff to sit for our lunch.  We watched the waves.  Some of the best we had seen in a while.  As I looked south toward Monterey, I could see the thick, grey, fog bank.  I pulled out my phone, and yup, the outer buoy south of SF all had a south breeze.  I sat there with my carrots and watched the June Gloom move in.  On July 1st.  It was pretty cool.  As south flow fog goes, this one was a quick stop.  Town cleared out on Tuesday afternoon.  The coast stayed grey and calm and beautiful.  The sun and north flow return today.  How about the holiday weekend?

Well, let's guess a bit.  It does look like the pressure gradient will develop near Mendocino over the next few days and as that pulls back away from the coast, we could see fairly slack winds on Friday.  If south flow were to develop, the coast would be pretty fogged in.  SF, HMB and SC would be thick grey and fireworks would just be flashes of lights in the fog.  Kind of cool, but not super cool.  And we won't be able to see across the bay from here in town.  Now, if instead the gradient hugs the coast locally, the northwest winds would keep things clear.  Maybe clear enough to see Aptos, or Sand City even.  I bet on inbetween.  Enough wind develops during the day to clear the sky, but not enough to keep it out of Monterey Bay.  With some luck, we might see over to Aptos.  But that is all guess work.  These high pressure systems are fickle.  Part of why I don't try to forecast them too much.

That said, it looks like we could see the winds lighten, but shift north west for the weekend.  That would mean grey mornings and sunshine before lunch here in town.  Flow could shift south for the start of next work week.  That spells grey all day kind of stuff.  For those who surf, things have been fun the last few days.  A few steep south swells are moving toward us, showing up for the Fourth and the weekend.  Could be fun, especially on the Eastside.   Get some.  Been a slow start to the south swell season.

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