Rain looks yo be approaching the Bay Area, from the north, mid day Friday. By Saturday morning rain should extend south of Monterey. We do have a chance of passing showers as early as Thursday, but the big push begins with the weekend. As the storm approaches, we can expect some SW winds, and dropping temperatures. Saturday will be cold. Sunday colder. Sunday and Monday nights should be very cold. It is a good possibility of seeing snow in the local hills, as some forecast are calling for snow levels as low as 2000'.
This weekend is stormy. It will come in waves that look to be strongest during the day on Saturday and Sunday evening. We can expect .75 to an inch or more rain through Monday morning. Clouds and showers could linger through as late as Wednesday morning, but most likely Tuesday will have some sun. It will remain cold and moderate through the week. Thanksgiving is looking nice, with plenty of sun and milder temperatures through the weekend. After that we sit under a blocking high for about a week. Models are showing a warmer, pineapple express riding on top of that high, pumping a lot of moisture just to our north. San Francisco and Lake Tahoe are on the southern edge of this moisture. Depending on where the jet lines up, we could potentially see very wet weather, just showers or even staying completely dry. Time will tell.
By Monday morning the rain should still be relatively consistent, so plan for a longer slower commute. We have already had a few rains this season, so oil on the road should not be too much of an issue, OTOH there are two factors to consider. Some folks have developed recent confidence to driving in the rain. Some of them do not deserve this confidence. Watch out for them. There have been several bad highway wrecks so far this season. Also, with such cold temperatures and potentially clearing skies (especially Tuesday AM), there is the chance for black ice - a phenomena that many BA residence have no experience with. Keep an eye out for slick spots in shadowed dips and high hill tops.
Okay holiday skiers and riders. As it stands right now we are looking at about 18" at lake level, 2-3' at the resorts and more than four feet at the crest. This storm has the potential to deliver even more that, but we don't want to be too hopeful. Squaw, Northstar and Heavenly are sure to be open, with the existing snow pack and manmade. With another two to three feet, we could see more terrain opening. Alpine says they will open if they get 3 feet. Kirkwood is likely to do the same. There is currently a decent snowpack on north faces about 8000'. It is thin though, and this new storm will cover up a lot of the exposed rock, stumps, and such. Be careful if you travel off piste. This snow storm will be cold and light, so you will sink through to the bottom, and sometimes that means dry earth. There is nothing worse than ending your season on opening day. Backcountry users, use caution. All this new snow will be falling on a crust, and it is not coming in all that wet.
How do you gardens look? If you have not done so recently, water them. This time of year it is easy to forget, but during dry (and warm) spells it is important to remember. We are not really expecting frost before the rain, but it important to keep you plants hydrated to protect from the cold. Speaking of which, you may want to get out there and protect any tender or young plants from the cold mornings coming.
And at the market, apples and plums are still around. Persimmons and pineapple guava are coming in. The last of the tomatoes and berries are disappearing, and tend to be not nearly as sweet as a month ago. Plenty of greens and brassica. It is roasting season. And crock pot season. BTW, does anyone have some good crock pot recipes?