Today is the end of the short heat wave we had. While technically not a heat wave, I think it qualifies on the Winter Scale, with inland highs tapping 90 in places. High temperatures tomorrow back down in the high 70s inland and 60s at the coast. With all areas in the 60s by Saturday. Up in the Sierra, high temperatures dip in the the 50s, with freezing temperatures all day on Monday (above 8000').
The first chance of rain comes late Friday and into Saturday. This first storm does not have a lot of water associated with in, but will foster in the first wave of colder air. The one to keep our eyes on shows up on Sunday and lingers into Monday. QPF forecast are all over the map, but some point to almost 3" of precipitation over the Sierra Crest with about an inch around the Bay Area (heaviest north).
While this storm is to be colder than some of the October systems, we still are expecting over night lows in the high 40s down in the bay. Temperatures to rebound a bit through the week. The longer term forecast is hard to pin down right now. Early next week, we should see clearing skies for Tuesday with cool temperatures. A storm brushes by to our north on Wednesday. Veterans Day looks warm and sunny, with about 70 degrees expected. What happens after Thursday could be continued mild and mild, or there in a chance of another system nosing in on Friday. We will need to look at the models later this week.
Okay, so the low down on the snow. I do not expect to see 3" of precip or anywhere near three feet of snow. At the highest elevations, and in the best locations, we may see 18" or more. Down at lake level, we can expect a few inches to half a foot. While this is not enough to open up the resorts, the cooler weather, and cold nights to follow will allow those snow making locales (Northstar and Heavenly) to get the guns running. This is the best looking set up we have had so far this season, am some have suggested we could get enough to close Tioga Pass for the winter.
For those who did not know, swell #1 hit the west coast earlier this week, with 25' plus surf in the Bay Area. Seas have subsided to the 5-8' range, but are expected to continue for a few more days. Wave making systems continue to cue up across the NorPac, so this is a good time to get out there and get some. Continued mild local winds through the weekend, with a good NW gradient forming on Monday. This same wind will usher in more cold air behind the storm.
Well, my garden is kind of freaking out. Wet, cool, warm, wet, then hot, hot, hot. I came home today and saw some very un happy choy and chard. They may make it through, but I wonder if things will bolt on me. I know some lettuce did. Our young fava beans, OTOH, are super stoked. And I am still setting and growing some winter squash. We will need to wait to see if that works out. As for the real world of produce, with this change of season, we are seeing a shift to southerly growing districts for summer squash, peppers, tomatoes, cucumbers and other tender vegetables. There are still some local plums on the market, but otherwise stone fruit are gone. This week's heat ripened up some late season yellow watermelons in the Salinas Valley. Persimmons and pineapple guavas are coming in. Apples are holding strong, but my favorite, the Empire, is nearly done.
The fluctuations in the weather make it a challenge for growing, but these burst of warm periods, with cool (not cold) wet periods are pretty nice for young starts. If the La Nina notes are correct, we could see an early and warm spring, after a short cold winter. As long as we ease into that change, we could be in for a boom year for winter produce.
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