Wednesday, July 10, 2013

54/71, with some Morning Fog.

This will likely be my last post for the month.  Sure, things will likely change, but with the coming travel and distance from home I doubt I will have much of a handle on the day to day.  Still, if I see something interesting, like, say, a snow storm, I will do my best to find the internet and get up a post.  Until then, I hope you enjoy your July.  Here is what it looks like for at least the next few days.

South swell hitting a certain reef in Big Sur.  Can you spot the surfers way down below?

Overnight  fog moves into coastal locations, with some upper level clouds pushing inland a touch, helping keep the folks on the inside from baking too much.  Don't get me wrong.  Upper 80s expected in Los Gatos and low 90s in Tracy are not exactly cold days, but they are not too horrible.  Here in Santa Cruz it will cool off at night with an early morning low of about 54F.  Fog pulls out mid morning.  About 10AM on the upper West Side and 1 PM out by Pleasure Point.  Warming up to about 71F in the afternoon.  Light north west breezes.  Friday may have difficulty with pulling the fog out.  Hell, most days look a bit grey at the water's edge.  It is summer after all, and part of the reason I plan for a big New England tour this time of year.

Long term I don't see much in the sense of change.  Maybe a warmer, and clearer period mid month, with some stronger breezes.  But that is just all play in the models.  High pressure looks to stay put in the eastern Pacific, with a thermal trough over the South West.  Summer.  Best bet for great weather right now will be up in the Sierra and in Tahoe.  Or Maine.

Friday, July 5, 2013

A little more normal lately.

It kind of feels good to have that fog linger around during the morning hours and a swift north west breeze building through the afternoon.  Like clam chowder, it is comforting.  I know this.  This is home.  Not quite sure what all that sunshine, warm temps and calm winds was about.  Sure, it was nice, but seriously, it almost makes you expect that kind of stuff.  In fact, with our family trip east coming up, we want to escape the fog, not escape the spectacularly perfect weather that seemed to define most of this past June.  July knows what the central coast is all about and it delivers.  So, for the near term, we can expect some grey mornings.  No fear though, I still don't see a persistent pattern of week long fog on the charts.  Smooth sailing for now.  Here are the details.

This place is a rental with a view.  Over the Hook, Santa Cruz.

High of about 72 today.  Low of near 55.  And that should do it through at least Tuesday.  We might see a change after that.  This afternoon we have some brisk northwest wind pumping up the local waves.  Too bad the wind is so near, causing a fair amount if junk and chop in the water.  We kind of go through a short south flow cycle over the next few days.  Fog might hang out a bit longer tomorrow, as we see slack winds overnight and light westerlies in the afternoon.  Sunday that fog could stick around even longer with a southwest flow over the nearshore waters.  By Monday, light westerlies return and on Tuesday we shift back to the northwest flow and mostly sun.  See how that works?  Typically, the south flow will settle fog upon us, where a NW wind blows it out.  After that it looks like morning winds will be light, but with a little luck we will be fog free.  So, kind of typical.

As mentioned the wind swell has been building since yesterday and should peak some time today.  Could be good in the morning at select spots that work the nw angle and are protected enough from the chop.  Where those waves will be fading over the weekend, a few small long period souths overlap keeping us in ridable surf right up to about the 10th or so.  After that the south Pacific looks like it will take a break for a bit.  And his time of year, you can't really count on much out of the north.  So, it may be that time of year you get the bike out and starting pushing the pedal.  High summer.  Can't complain, as it has been a great run.

Just want to note to you all that soon we head east for a 3 week tour.  Doubt I'll make much time to update this page much before August.  Hell, I'll be thinking about weather 3000 miles away.  But if I see something of interest, I'll try to post up here and let you know about.  And I'll get at least one more update before we head out of town.  But once I am gone, I can no longer look out the window and see what is happening in real time, which is a great source of information.  Anyway, hope you had a greta holiday and continue to enjoy the summer.

Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Excessive Heat and Flash Floods Warnings Continue... But Not Here.

We have settled into a typical summer time pattern.  The good one, where the interior heats up and the marine layer barely sits just on the coast.  The fog has made its way into our little bit of the world, making a slightly stronger presence each morning.  Campus still looks to clear by 8AM, the hills and banana bely by 9AM and then all the way to the shore be 11AM.  Not quite the perfect stunning weather of a few days ago where I could watch the sunrise up over the Santa Cruz Mountains, but it ain't the gloom of fog all day, days on end.  That is the other typical summer pattern.  The one that kills tomatoes and good moods.  So what exactly do we have in store for the coming holiday?  Fine afternoons and evenings.  Here are the details.

Low tide is a great time to walk at Cowells Beach and looks at sea shells.

Fog clears mid morning.  With the heat still generating inland, spill over expected and we could be back up into the low 80s today in the better parts of town.  Those asphalt fields downtown and near the box stores will certainly be making there way into the 80s.  Along the cliffs and beaches low to mid 70s.  The good news is there is little wind, so what ever temps we do have will feel plenty warm.  More of the same for the Fourth.  And expect crowds.  While the valley is not as hot as a few days ago, many locations are still in the 90s with a few breaking the 100F mark.  All those folks need to go some where to get out of the heat.  90 percent of them will be at Main Beach and Twin Lakes.  You should go some where else.  4 Mile has a lot of sand under the cliffs and we have a mid day low tide.  Just a hint.  Friday is more of the same.  Fog in the morning, clearing mid to late morning, and warming up to just about 80, although it should be a bit cooler than today.  The trend continues with day time highs of upper 70s in town and lower 70s on the coast.  There could be some afternoon breezes by Monday, but right now we are looking at great afternoon beach weather.

And you may have notices the small but consistent swell in the water the past seven days.  The south swell winds down today, but we should see a good amount of wind swell developing starting on the holiday.  Friday should be eight foot on the exposed coast.  Nothing super exciting, just some short period stuff, but that keeps the run of waves going into July.  More small south swell looks to show up around Monday, just as the wind swell gradient to our north shuts down.  For summer time, the waves have been excellent.  If you are new to the sport, or thinking of trying it out, this is the perfect time to get in the water.  It has been so good, I have no update for you on the mountain biking in the county.  In fact, I've had a flat tire for six weeks and I can't even find time to get to the store and buy some tubes.

In short, moving into the typical weather pattern.  Strong spring winds are turning toward light to moderate summer winds.  Some fog in the mornings, lingering at the shore.  Some mornings will be thicker than others.  Clear by noon.  Low to mid 80s for the next two days and then mid to upper 70s.  Cooler at the beaches, but will feel nice with light winds.  Don't forget to apply sun block.

7AM EDIT:  Fog has cleared from the hill and I can see clear to the mountains in the east.  Still foggy on the coastal bench, but that should burn off soon.  Expect a fine, fine day.