Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Ditto. And, Dudes!

Today really played out like a replica of yesterday.  Fog banked up behind Aptos, in the hills, this morning.  A beautiful sunrise over the mountain tops.  Then the fog began to march west, down to the water, across the bay, through town, and up the hill toward campus.  Blew out pretty quickly between 10 and 11.  Warm, with a stiff north west breeze.  I'd call it moderate plus.  But all that is about to change.  Done ditto and on with the dude!

If it were a bit closer, we would be at the Pot Holes on Friday.  Guess we will just hit the beach.

It is going to get hot.  Like seriously hot.  Starting tomorrow.  Well, actually, tomorrow is a transition day.  Any fog that does attempt to form tonight will be wispy and insignificant, so things will start to warm up early.  And while there will be another round of afternoon north west winds, they will never really get up to speed.  Highs in town and up the hill will be in the low 80s.  Maybe a bit cooler along the water's edge, especially with the afternoon onshore flow.  Then things really get started.

Thursday morning will begin with a clear sky.  There may even be an offshore breeze.  Some outlets are calling for an off shore event, but I don't really see that coming into play.  Typically, that would mean strong ENE winds in the early morning, turning more NE and lighter in the afternoons.  We will probably see light off shore east winds in the morning, remaining light an variable during the afternoons.  So the direct coast will remain in the mid to upper 80s.  Just inland, say at Harvey West, or Delaveaga, or Felton, or gulp, Saratoga, it is going to get brutal.  90s on Thursday, and upper 90s possible Friday.  Hey, at least it ain't Modesto.  Excellent beach weather, yo.  The weekend looks to be pretty darn nice as well, if a bit cooler, with Sunday back down into the upper 70s.  Hello October.

Long term, we slowly moderate in temperature as we enter next week, and could even see a little fog development.  Right now we don't see much of a wind gradient developing, so we might be in for some continued light wind.  You know, pleasant fall weather.  There are signs of a broad low pressure developing in the Gulf of Alaska next week and pushing east through mid month.  Could be a big rain maker.  As of now, the models seem to think it will douse the western coast from Oregon to the Alaskan pan handle.  Will watch and see if it decides to take a dip south.  For now, just get out and enjoy the awesome.

Monday, September 29, 2014

Autumn to arrive in all its splendid glory this very week!

If you don't like the heat, you may want to find some place to go.  Santa Cruz is to sky rocket up into the 80s, with a very slight possibility (but a possibility, none the less) of tipping the scales at 90F by Friday.  I'm so pumped on the amplification that is to occur later this week, that is is almost difficult to focus on the weather that will start the week.  But here we go.  Very thin upper level fog this morning basically peeled away just as the sun came up over the Santa Cruz Mountains.  What a lovely red sunrise we had.  Things expected to get "warmish" today, according to NPR, according to the NWS.  I'm just gonna say it will be in the low to mid 70s, with a moderate northwest breeze developing for afternoon.  Maybe some limited fog/cloud cover tonight and more of the same Tuesday.  By mid week we will begin to notice the Turn.

A light dusting fell in the Sierra Nevada over the past few days.  Yay!

No, we are not seeing a Santa Ana situation set up, rather, a high pressure that creates a bridge north of us driving northern storms into British Columbia, while pumping warmth into our region.  Winds are expected to go slack on Wednesday, and we will begin a moderate warming trend, with hump day pushing up near the 80 degree mark.  Thursday and Friday look like they will be the peak days of this warmth, with temps clearly in the mid and upper 80s.  You might even find a few spots getting a bit warmer.  The weekend looks to stay nice, but temps will moderate a bit, with Sunday dropping back down into the upper 70s.  

9:40 EDIT:  Fog was banked up against Aptos around 8:40 this morning, with a clear sky, and a shining sun on West Cliff.  Gorgeous.  An hour later, high fog has filtered back into town, and we now have the sun trying to burn through the moisture as the temps are warming up.  67F as I type, and expected to be much warmer in the next few hours.  NW flow is having a hard time pushing ashore this morning, so we may see some clouds linger through the late morning hours.  

Saturday, September 27, 2014

A Bonanza(!), alomost.

Precipitation keeps falling across the eastern edge of the state, especially in the Sierra.  Snow levels reported as low at 7000 feet.  Sticking to the ground above 8000 feet.  Over an inch of rain in South Lake Tahoe.  Over a half inch near the King Fire.  Rain fall does not seem to be wide spread though, with some locations reporting no new rain, while nearby a quarter inch had fallen in the past 24 hours.  But regardless, this is all very good news, and the fact that some of it is falling as snow means we may actually retain more of the water.  Or, at least it bodes well.  Anyhow, clear and breezy and warm today in Santa Cruz.  More rain/snow for the Sierra this weekend, becoming more localized around the southern end of the chain on Sunday.  And maybe wrapping back up into the northern corner of the state on Monday.  More water is more awesome.  Not much coming to Santa Cruz this week, though.  Just a chance of some off shore flow and low humidity for late in the week.  Let us just hope the fires get doused before we see a Santa Ana condition set up.

Shore Break

Things seem really up in the air for this coming week.  No rain for sure, but the type of dry weather is what is in question.  For the next few days it looks like we settle into this northwest flow thing.  So, some morning marine layer for Sunday, with it decreasing through the week.  We could stay in that pattern, or see either the gradient lift north of us, giving us calm sunny weather, or an offshore flow set up.  Either way, the second half of the work week looks brilliant.  Might be a great start to October.  More on that Monday.

Friday, September 26, 2014

Seventy Four Percent.

Rain moved solidly inland yesterday with even South Lake Tahoe recording precipitation.  Only one hundredth of an inch, but hey, it is on the other side of the crest, and this storm was supposed to stay coastal.  The good news is the region around the King Fire saw from half to a entire inch of rain yesterday.  Fire dangers briefly turned to flash flood danger in the burned area.  Containment is now at 74%, which is almost double what we saw on Wednesday.  In large part, due to the rain.  And while some moisture lingered about today, high pressure begin to push into the region this afternoon.  Expect some strong northwest flow tonight and into Saturday.  Things settle out a bit Sunday, but there is a chance for morning fog.  Boo.  The good news is summer like high pressure, with sun and warming on schedule for next week.  The bad news is it is not a fall like high pressure.

Summertime antics at the Pot Holes.  Snow should fall on the surrounding peaks tonight.

If you are headed to the Sierra tonight, you can look forward to some high elevation snow and chance of thunder showers.  The storm we experienced Thursday has shifted east, and the wrap around on its back side is sending showers up both the west and east slope, with the strongest activity along the crest.  More water for the state.  Always good news.  And maybe more on the King Fire.  Down here on the coast, we can expect some warmer temps tomorrow, but strong north west breezes will keep it feeling cool out. Mid 70s.  Sunday will be a bit cooler with the foggy start, but could feel similiar doe to less wind.  By the start of the week, we could be enjoying some upper 70s.  Night time lows continue in the upper 50s.  As the week progresses, we could shift toward a fall like high pressure, which would mean clearer nights.  Cooler, with more stars.  Also the added benefit of warmer days.  Harvest weather.  Cold nights are great for curing your squash.  Anyway, the rain was great, but we will need to wait a bit for any more.  Fingers crossed, as that has worked well so far.

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Rain exceeds expectations.

Such a nice way to wake up to the pitter patter of rain.  My son and I spent a good ten minutes with the door open appreciating the wetness of everything.  Not just a foggy dampness.  It feels pretty light here on the west side, but it has been steady since I got up at 6:15.  As of 8AM, gauges along the summit are recording about one half inch with La Honda being the winner at .68 inch.  Davenport is recording two tenths, Peasant Valley a third, and Watsonville half of that.  And my son just reported from the bathroom that it is still raining.  He asks if I can hear the pitter patter.  We love us some rain.  Lucky for us the radar suggest that we have another hour or two to enjoy.  The main band has mostly passed us, but the really good news is that it have moved solidly inland, and the Central Valley is enjoying the wetness as well.  Oh, and NPR just reported two accidents on 17 (no big surprise there; slow down, the road is a freaking oil slick, yo!) and several others around the Bay.

Red Cliffs in late summer.  Kirkwood Valley, California.

Quickly, as I said rain has moved inland, let's talk about fire.  It now looks like the western edge of the King Fire.  Obviously, there are no gauges within that blaze, but Bald Mountain, just about 5 miles west of the fire's western edge has received about a tenth of an inch so far.  More is looking to move in as the morning progresses.  Awesome news.  Along with that, inland temps have dropped significantly, and humidity has risen from about 35% to 95% in El Dorado County.  Let's hope this high energy fire gets a beating from the storm.

Things should clear out for us today.  I'd expect to see some afternoon sun.  There is likely a second wave of rain coming, but I still think it will miss us here in Santa Cruz.  But we could see some clouds returning, or maybe they never leave.  It does look like the northern central, and eastern portions of the state are going to get more moisture than previously thought.  Excellent news.  That should occur today and into tonight.  As this thing exits, Friday, the back side could wrap more moisture into the central and southern Sierra Nevada into Sunday morning.  Decent chance at a dusting of snow above 9000 feet along the crest.  Overall, a decent little rain maker for our overly dry state.  If you can't already tell, I'm super stoked on this rain.

Rain through the morning, with some clearing later today.  Chance of clouds and light rain tomorrow, but not likely.  Strong NW flow for late Friday and the weekend.  More on next week later.  Just sit back and enjoy that drip drip drop.  I am sad for my tomatoes, though.

Oh, yeah, careful by that ocean today!  And if you are getting out, expect some stronger side shore current that you have felt in a few months.

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Rain falls in the state of California twice in one week!!!!!

Hot off the presses.  Rain is falling north of Redway.  Basically from just north and west of a line from Fort Bragg on the coast and Yreka inland.  And it looks like a good wide band of it is pretty heavy precipitation.  Rain is likely for San Francisco over night, with about a 30% chance still being forecasted for Santa Cruz.  Rain line is now forecasted by GFS to reach down toward Big Sur.  Again.  Damn flip floppers.  Anyway, it feels likely we will see rain over the mountains, especially north of town.  Yup, that means Highway 17 might be wet for the morning commute.  Expect the usual central California, I forgot how to drive in the rain mayhem.  Might want to leave a few minutes early if ya plan to drive the hill.  I still think it will be fairly light, if any, here in town, with clearing late morning to mid day Thursday.  NWS feels otherwise.

Kirkwood Meadows.  Being well south of the fire, Kirkwood has had less smoke than the Truckee area.

This afternoon NOAA if forecasting a second band wrapping in on Friday.  While the GFS and Euro suggest that a second band will move through, they keep the moisture either well north and/or well east of us.  Seems more likely to me.  Still, over all, the state is getting another nice wetting.  By no means does this even make a dent in our states dehydration problem.  But it does quench an immediate thirst, and provides some relief to small northern water sheds, as well as helping out with the King Fire (and others).  While this will only provide a light sprinkle over the west slope north of Route 50 where the King is raging, it will also raise humidity levels and lower temperatures.  On the other hand, the winds are howling up there today, and likely driving the fire and smoke north east.  As of yesterday, the fire was about 35% contained and still growing.  Hopes and prayers go out to the men and women who are fighting this thing.

Anyway, for us things look summer like going into the weekend and next week.  Fog will be thinner, typical of a NW flow.  Overnight lows will dip a bit cooler.  Mid to upper 50s.  Daytime highs will increase a bit.  Mid to upper 70s.  Maybe some zones hitting 80F.  It was 78F at the downtown Farmer's Market today.  Just to give you an idea.  It has been warm, if you are out of the breeze, on the west side the last few days.  Next week, summer and autumn patterns battle it out in an epic story of good versus evil.  If only HBO would make the show, you know you'd watch it.  Any, things are still up in the air for the weather after Sunday, but I'm gonna put my money on more of the same described above in this paragraph, until perhaps around the start of October.  Then I'm expecting that huge blob of high pressure to sit right on top of us and bathe us in its warmth.  Maybe.

Oh, less than a tenth of an inch in town, with maybe a quarter in the local hills.  Much more north of

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Sizable swell coming our way. Welcome to the Fall Season.

Not much to update about the rain this coming week.  Just wanted to point out that this one is not forecast to dive as far south as last week's system, and Santa Cruz is really on the water line.  In fact, in my post yesterday I said it was Point Sur, but this morning's run is just a bit further north.  Based on that, I'd say that town might get no more than a misty drizzle, while areas in the Santa Cruz Mountains north of town will get light rain.  South of town could stay dry.  On the other hand, this system is expected to bring a whole lot more water to our state.  Santa Rosa is expecting a quarter inch.  The north western corner, down to about Point Arena is forecast to get from one to over three inches.  Pray for rain.  And hope this thing did just another hundred miles south on its thousand plus mile journey, and we could see some real fire relief.  We need it.  The West Slope is burning.  Again.  Smoke shut down the Olympic Valley Iron Man.  Reno feels like Los Angeles.  At least most of the Tahoe/Yosemite region fires have been primarily in wilderness.  Anyway, off topic.

Thunderstorms are more of an east coast thing.  Humid and mid 80s?  Where else but the beach would you want to be?

So, still not sure about that rain for here in Santa Cruz, but pretty much a sure thing for the northern coastal range.  Yay!  That same storm center is about 800 nm nw of SF deeping to 976mb.  Love abbreviations.  Anyway, this tightly packed storm is generating thirty foot seas and sending them in our direction.  We will have a 7-9 foot swell at 15-16 seconds on Thursday.  Overhead for the west side, and double overhead plus at the nw wave magnets up north.  And fairly consistent.  So yeah, fall opener.  Surf wise, the storm may be messing things up, but the swell will be pounding.  Not a huge, or even big, swell by fall/winter standards, just something a whole lot more energetic than summer time surf.  And of course, use caution, stand back from the edge of cliffs, and be careful when viewing the surf.  It is not uncommon for someone to get swept off their perch and go for a swim this time of year.  For some, it is their final chapter.  Don't be that guy.  And warn your kids.  But it sure sure be a fun day, with pounding waves and a passing and clearing storm.  In other words, the light will be stellar.

Still seeing the fall warm sunny weather for next week in the models this morning.  Also seeing some moisture circulating in the northern parts of the state over the weekend.  Nothing sustained or wide spread, but possibly some showers, which is a good thing.  Surf subsides a bit Friday, but does linger through the weekend, with improving weather and conditions.

And as for that fine fall weather that I talk about for next week, it sure was nice yesterday.  And will be so again today.  Downtown likely to be in the low 80s this afternoon.  Can't shake a stick at that.

Monday, September 22, 2014

30 Percent and Autumn Announced.

I'll start with our chance of rain.  As for the weather before the chance of rain, I am sure you can pretty much guess we will see some fog and some sun.  Sun is out already today, which is nice.  Wednesday may have a little harder time clearing, with the approaching weather system.  A decently strong storm has formed in the central Gulf of Alaska, is deepening, and headed toward the east.  The center of the storm is expected to stay off shore, but circulation under the system, will bring some decent rain to the PNW and the northern portion of California.  Just like last week, this thing is not expected to push too far ashore, so most of the water will fall in the coastal mountains.  Areas like the Trinity Alps could see significant rain fall.  San Francisco is expected to get about a tenth of an inch.  Less as you head further south, with the rain line likely not getting further south than Point Sur.

Grey days, grey gulls.  It is always fun to be at the water's edge.

All that said, it is still quite uncertain if we will get any rain at all in Santa Cruz.  We will be lightly brushed by this system, before the core dissipates and migrates north in the Gulf.  Regardless, it is nice to see some water falling in some parts of the state.  And did you notice how the dust even settled for a day or two?  Pretty cool.  Timing looks to be a replica of last week, with rain impacting the coastal communities from late Wednesday through the morning hours on Thursday.  Clouds likely to linger Thursday and clearing out Friday afternoon.  High pressure begins to take a hold then.

We start off on the southern edge of the high pressure that builds to our north.  Expect some north west winds developing as the high gets squeezed by lows continuing to move across the norther Gulf waters.  Slowly, the high fills out more, and we begin see it shift south.  As we get more centered under it, along it's north side, we would see the off shore warm flow begin.  As in, autumn weather.  Far from certain, but there is that forecast for warmth seven days out.  By ten days, it looks quite nice.  On the other hand, those low pressures to our north could always punch through and bring more rain.  Time will tell.

More on this week's possible rain, and next week's possible warmth in a few days.  Until then, go outside.  It is beautiful out there.

Saturday, September 20, 2014

Round Two?

Little quick mid day Saturday look out the window confirms that the fog is still thick.  Can't see across the bay or the mountains.  Pretty damp out there today.  Very light wind flow out over the water, making for superb sailing and surfing conditions through out the day.  Hell, it is great sea life viewing weather from along the shore.  Maybe some breaks of sun this afternoon.  Not a whole lot of change to the weather through the early part of next week.  That bought of sunny fall like weather is going to be put on hold, but developing light to moderate north west flow will likely blow fog out a bit earlier in the day as we start the work week.  But the real news is another storm is developing in the Gulf of Alaska mid week, and diving south.  Again.

Summertime grey at 4 Mile Beach.

In fact, the NPAC is looking very active in the 16 day models.  Sure, a lot of that forecasting is pure rubbish, but the pattern is suggestive of active jet.  As it stands this morning we will have a slight chance of being brushed by another rain system mid to late next week.  And a third might swing through just to our north next weekend, with a fourth diving south again the following week.  I will be keeping an eye on these as we get closer.  My gut tells me the high pressure will keep them north of here, if only because it is still September.  But the really good news is it does look like portions of the state might continue to receive early season rains.  More on this as we begin the work week. For today expect maybe some sun, with a high in the low to mid 70s.  Warming over the next few days, but staying in the 70s.  Fog cover will keep our nights damp and in the 60s.  Cooler up the hillside.

Thursday, September 18, 2014

It is that time of year again.

You can pretty much go for two, or three, or four, or seven, or eight months each year without much checking the weather.  I mean, it is really, really hard to predict fog action accurately.  Sure, there are days where we are sure we won't see any, and days we are pretty sure we won't see the sun, but most days of summer you can pretty much figure on a foggy start, with clearing between 6am and noon.  On the other hand, if you are one of the thousands that enjoy some sort of ocean activity around Santa Cruz, understanding how the northwest gradients, and south eddy flows effect our ocean weather can be worth paying close attention to.  For those who only notice the large, gross, changes in weather, often need not even look at a forecast until autumn.  Let us say that it is now effectively autumn, with the first rain of the season falling here in town last night.  I actually heard shouts of join last night as the rain swelled around 10:30 in the evening.  Ben Lomond received over 3/4 inch of rain last night, with many areas in the county reporting about one third inch.  Pretty cool.  There was a lot of variance in rain fall amounts, with Davenport report just .04 inches as off 9AM.  It will be interesting to look at how much fell in the coastal mountains to our north.

Perkins Cove, Maine.  A nice little harbor where summer feels like summer.  Hopeful for next week.

Clouds will linger this morning, and we might even see a few sporadic showers, but for the most part, the rain system has dissipated and shifted north east toward Idaho.  We might get lucky and see some sun later, but it will remain at least partly cloudy, and humid, through this evening.  Northwest winds fill in tomorrow following this system, an should blow out that fog around mid morning.  But we are not expecting a full on wind gradient settling on us, so light winds returning for the weekend.  Still have the fingers crossed for a high pressure off shore flow machine setting up for next week.    Stay tuned.  Could be summer soon.

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

30 Percent, trying hard, and a perhaps a glimmer of autumn.

Gonna keep it pretty short today.  This mornings GFS has the coming storm wetter and further south, if less organized and weaker.  Still, the NWS is calling for a 30 percent chance of showers late this evening and into Thursday.  Less than a tenth of an inch expected, which possibly a little bit more rain in Humboldt County.  Some farmers up there I am sure are freaking out right now.  Most rain will fall on the coastal plain and mountains.  If we get any here in Santa Cruz, it will clear out before noon, as this storm is moving through pretty swiftly and will only be brushing our region.

Can't really complain about the weather much when the surf has been cranking for most of the month,  Steamers.

It does not look like this storm will do much for blowing out the marine layer and we can expect more foggy mornings through the rest of the work week and the weekend.  By Monday, high pressure will be trying to get its autumn foothold over central California and we might finally be graced with a period of a few days (or more) of sunny mornings and warming weather.  We could be calling for mid 80s by late next week, but it is sure too far away at this point to say anything like that with confidence.

So good news.  Maybe a touch of rain.  Maybe warm and sunny next week.  And the surf is cranking.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Chance for light rain showers later this week.

Seriously.  The storm that has been in the models for about a week now, the one that about a week ago I said was likely to dissipate off the northern California coastline, is now forecast to bring rain to the state.  This while the remnants of Odile are likely to bring rain to the very southern end of the state.  So, in short, on Thursday we could see light rain across a good fifth of the state.  Pretty cool.  The question for us is how far south will the northern Californian storm reach.  But ultimately I am here to tell you how beautiful this morning is.  The marine layer remained off the coast last night giving us the first view of stars in some time, and I saw my first sunrise in what must have been a month.  Likely it will get fairly warm today.

March 2011 @ 7750'.  This is a two story building.  Can you remember when it used to rain and snow?

Mid to upper 70s for town, with parts of downtown and wind protected areas like Harvey West maybe pushing up to 80F.  Don't get too excited.  This is not our indian summer, as fog is looking to return to Santa Cruz this evening.  There is a chance this is wrong, as the small scale rain system to our north and west could help sweep out the marine layer.  This morning's model run suggest that by mid day tomorrow, Wednesday, the storm will be pushing into the OR/CA border region.  As it hits the coastal mountains the system begins to fall apart, and moisture spreads southward.  We have a chance for some light overnight, and early morning showers late Wednesday and into Thursday.  Nothing heavy.  Less than a tenth of an inch, if anything.  Chances greater for rain as you move north, but it does not look like much moisture will get very far inland.

Otherwise our weather is the typical, uneventful late summer foggy mornings and sunny afternoons.  Next week we could be seeing a transition to autumn like weather.  Just on time.  No bet getting placed yet, but the models are suggesting a large high pressure beginning to set up over us and stretching well inland.  This could subdue the moderate north west flow and fog machine.  More on that later this week as we get closer.  As for the storm that was on the fantasy charts for a few day, for late next week, has gone the way of the unicorn.  More on all of this later.  If it looks like the showers are imminent and super likely, I'll post up tomorrow.  Otherwise, just plan for maybe some light rain Wednesday night, and clean up your yard.

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Rain in the FantasyCast*

Pretty typical nice summer weather going on right now.  Fog looked like it was going to sit heavy this morning with a low lay to it, but then, if as on schedule, it begin to burn off just around 9AM.  Warmed up nicely, and the breezes remain in the light to moderate range this afternoon.  An early season, small north west swell is in the water to combo up with an even smaller southerly swell for some chest high plus fun.  Nothing to get too excited about.  But the weather is nice, and should remain so for the next few days.  As long as you don't miss watching the sunrise too much.

San Mateo coastline.

A stronger gradient was being suggested for late in the weekend, but this morning's GFS run suggests a pretty slack pattern through the middle of next week.  No super strong high pressure to pump us up though, so fog could remain in the picture.  Something needs to kick it out.  Rain threatens the northern Californian coast late next week, but things look to fall apart before bringing the state the much needed water.  After that, it is forecast that a large strong high pressure will take over the western United States.  Think Santa Ana hot, dry, offshore winds.  Increasing fire danger is possible.  The real cherry is that rain is actually in the 15 day forecast.  A large Gulf of Alaska storm plows into British Columbia about 11 days out, and then settles south, crushing the high pressure, before plowing ashore with showers down to Point Conception, and measurable water from SF north.  One can only hope there is some truth to the fantasy.

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Warming trend through Saturday; continued morning fog.

The afternoon condition will swing back and forth between a moderate north west breeze blowing, and a light westerly breeze.  Early mornings will have mostly grey overhead, but just as over the last few mornings, we can get some sun on the south facing slopes very early if the fog is high enough.  Regardless, most days will be clearing early.  Well, early compared to not clearing at all.  Sun starts to break through around 9 in the morning on the west side.  This is actually great growing weather, especially for those tender vegetables like tomatoes.  A little bit of fog keeps the overnight lows from plummeting too low.  Clear nights cool off much quicker due to radiational cooling, where the open sky steals the grounds warmth.  Anyway, lows of just about 60F.  Highs build through the 70s into the weekend.  Some interesting stuff showing in the mid to long term.

Kirkwood Meadows.  

On the chart now, for the first day of autumn next week is a rain storm for the PNW and fine weather for us.  The first storm in the series has already been forced into the Aleutians by the summer time high pressure, and is sending us a small long period north Pacific swell to arrive later this week.  The second if forming further south, but likely won't get much traction on the water before being jetted north.  Number two actually act like a primer, weakening a spot in the high pressure, for a third system that is forecast to punch through, and feed off the energy as it heads toward to the west coast of northern North America.  Possible strong rain system to hit BC and/or PNW for around the 22nd.  Rain not likely for us, but we could see our high pressure pump up on top of us, to combat the low to its north, giving us those cool nights, fine sunny crisp mornings, and some real warmth by afternoon.  But of course, this is almost two weeks out, so really, just conjecture.  

Friday, September 5, 2014

977, and dropping.

That low pressure up in the northern Pacific, about to cross the date line and encroach on the Gulf of Alaska is currently at 977mb.  And dropping.  Not too shabby for an early September storm.  Does it spell a change in the weather.  Not really.  That thing ain't gonna make it too far before slamming into a wall of high pressure and get sent up over the Klondike.  Or somewhere near there.  The backside of the high, where we are located will continue with the summer time weather pattern.  Some sun.  Today was almost sunny at times.  Looks like more of that is to come.  Sure, with that whole north westerly thing starting to turn on, you'd expect early morning clearing.  Yet the real gradient will stay well north and we will barely be out of the eddy flow.

SUP, Nubble Light.  What a lovely place.  York Beach, Maine.

Some warming for the weekend.  Lows continue to be about 60F, but the daytime will sees highs in the mid and upper 70s.  Woot!  A little cooler after Sunday, but yeah, not really.  There still is some interesting developments in the forecast for mid month.  Maybe a chance of some nice fall like weather as rain moves into the PNW.  We can only hope.

Thursday, September 4, 2014

Stay grey, but perhaps fall is on the way.

South flow through the end of the work week keeps us grey through most of the day.  That cloud cover keeps us from getting too cool at night, helping those tomatoes to ripen up.  Lows just about 60F.  On the other hand, that cloud cover is keeping things from warming up too much during the day.  Highs are just tipping into the 70s.  But things look like they will change a bit for the weekend.

Sea grass, sea rose and the sea with a few lobster buoys.  York, Maine.

No much though.  And still summer like.  But with a little bit of a north west flow developing, we could see the fog lift a bit earlier, and those high temps rise a bit further.  Mid to upper 70s for the weekend.  It looks like the light south to west flow will return for Monday.  More grey.  For a while at least.  On a positive note, the fog has been heavy enough for some light drizzle early in the mornings, providing just enough water for most of my garden.  Anyway, we will have more of that for next week it seems.  When we start looking 7-10 days out, the GFS is forecasting an increase in activity in the north Pacific.  If, and when, a low pressure system moves into British Columbia mid month, we could see our high pressure settle up upon us, and give us several days of warmth and sun.  If and could.  Anyway, fight the mold and fungus, and look forward to the fall growing season.  It is getting about time to start getting those winter plots set up.  If you can plant in September, then you know your plants will be well established by winter.

Monday, September 1, 2014

Someone should tell summer that it ends on Labor Day.

It was a pretty nice weekend.  Warm in the Sierra.  Hot in the interior.  Not cold on the coast.  But that is all about to change.  A grey start on Tuesday, but with the northwest flow still in effect, things could clear relatively early, bringing the warmest day of the work week in the mid 70s.  South flow and more fog is on the way, and should be fully developed by mid week.  So, basically, expect cooler weather returning, with the coastal air conditioning in full effect.  Cool, grey mornings, with overnight lows not dropping much below 60F.  Slow clearing through the day.  On most days.  Some may be slow enough to not quite clear.  High of just about 70F.  This looks like it could continue into the weekend, just as a nice solid long period south swell should be peaking.

Now, that is a lobster.  Just off the coast of Ogunquit, Maine.  

By the following week, we could see a north west wind flow pattern return, but at least over night fog looks to continue.  At least from the vantage point of today.  What is interesting is the forecast of a low pressure system to move into the eastern Gulf of Alaska about 10 days out.  A bit early for this kind of pattern, but not unheard of.  And that is on the fantasy charts, so we have a while still to iron that one out.  It does not look like a rain maker for us, but if it were to develop, it would effect our sunshine in a positive, fall like way.  One can hope.