Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Sizable swell coming our way. Welcome to the Fall Season.

Not much to update about the rain this coming week.  Just wanted to point out that this one is not forecast to dive as far south as last week's system, and Santa Cruz is really on the water line.  In fact, in my post yesterday I said it was Point Sur, but this morning's run is just a bit further north.  Based on that, I'd say that town might get no more than a misty drizzle, while areas in the Santa Cruz Mountains north of town will get light rain.  South of town could stay dry.  On the other hand, this system is expected to bring a whole lot more water to our state.  Santa Rosa is expecting a quarter inch.  The north western corner, down to about Point Arena is forecast to get from one to over three inches.  Pray for rain.  And hope this thing did just another hundred miles south on its thousand plus mile journey, and we could see some real fire relief.  We need it.  The West Slope is burning.  Again.  Smoke shut down the Olympic Valley Iron Man.  Reno feels like Los Angeles.  At least most of the Tahoe/Yosemite region fires have been primarily in wilderness.  Anyway, off topic.

Thunderstorms are more of an east coast thing.  Humid and mid 80s?  Where else but the beach would you want to be?

So, still not sure about that rain for here in Santa Cruz, but pretty much a sure thing for the northern coastal range.  Yay!  That same storm center is about 800 nm nw of SF deeping to 976mb.  Love abbreviations.  Anyway, this tightly packed storm is generating thirty foot seas and sending them in our direction.  We will have a 7-9 foot swell at 15-16 seconds on Thursday.  Overhead for the west side, and double overhead plus at the nw wave magnets up north.  And fairly consistent.  So yeah, fall opener.  Surf wise, the storm may be messing things up, but the swell will be pounding.  Not a huge, or even big, swell by fall/winter standards, just something a whole lot more energetic than summer time surf.  And of course, use caution, stand back from the edge of cliffs, and be careful when viewing the surf.  It is not uncommon for someone to get swept off their perch and go for a swim this time of year.  For some, it is their final chapter.  Don't be that guy.  And warn your kids.  But it sure sure be a fun day, with pounding waves and a passing and clearing storm.  In other words, the light will be stellar.

Still seeing the fall warm sunny weather for next week in the models this morning.  Also seeing some moisture circulating in the northern parts of the state over the weekend.  Nothing sustained or wide spread, but possibly some showers, which is a good thing.  Surf subsides a bit Friday, but does linger through the weekend, with improving weather and conditions.

And as for that fine fall weather that I talk about for next week, it sure was nice yesterday.  And will be so again today.  Downtown likely to be in the low 80s this afternoon.  Can't shake a stick at that.

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