Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Chance for light rain showers later this week.

Seriously.  The storm that has been in the models for about a week now, the one that about a week ago I said was likely to dissipate off the northern California coastline, is now forecast to bring rain to the state.  This while the remnants of Odile are likely to bring rain to the very southern end of the state.  So, in short, on Thursday we could see light rain across a good fifth of the state.  Pretty cool.  The question for us is how far south will the northern Californian storm reach.  But ultimately I am here to tell you how beautiful this morning is.  The marine layer remained off the coast last night giving us the first view of stars in some time, and I saw my first sunrise in what must have been a month.  Likely it will get fairly warm today.

March 2011 @ 7750'.  This is a two story building.  Can you remember when it used to rain and snow?

Mid to upper 70s for town, with parts of downtown and wind protected areas like Harvey West maybe pushing up to 80F.  Don't get too excited.  This is not our indian summer, as fog is looking to return to Santa Cruz this evening.  There is a chance this is wrong, as the small scale rain system to our north and west could help sweep out the marine layer.  This morning's model run suggest that by mid day tomorrow, Wednesday, the storm will be pushing into the OR/CA border region.  As it hits the coastal mountains the system begins to fall apart, and moisture spreads southward.  We have a chance for some light overnight, and early morning showers late Wednesday and into Thursday.  Nothing heavy.  Less than a tenth of an inch, if anything.  Chances greater for rain as you move north, but it does not look like much moisture will get very far inland.

Otherwise our weather is the typical, uneventful late summer foggy mornings and sunny afternoons.  Next week we could be seeing a transition to autumn like weather.  Just on time.  No bet getting placed yet, but the models are suggesting a large high pressure beginning to set up over us and stretching well inland.  This could subdue the moderate north west flow and fog machine.  More on that later this week as we get closer.  As for the storm that was on the fantasy charts for a few day, for late next week, has gone the way of the unicorn.  More on all of this later.  If it looks like the showers are imminent and super likely, I'll post up tomorrow.  Otherwise, just plan for maybe some light rain Wednesday night, and clean up your yard.

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