Monday, September 22, 2014

30 Percent and Autumn Announced.

I'll start with our chance of rain.  As for the weather before the chance of rain, I am sure you can pretty much guess we will see some fog and some sun.  Sun is out already today, which is nice.  Wednesday may have a little harder time clearing, with the approaching weather system.  A decently strong storm has formed in the central Gulf of Alaska, is deepening, and headed toward the east.  The center of the storm is expected to stay off shore, but circulation under the system, will bring some decent rain to the PNW and the northern portion of California.  Just like last week, this thing is not expected to push too far ashore, so most of the water will fall in the coastal mountains.  Areas like the Trinity Alps could see significant rain fall.  San Francisco is expected to get about a tenth of an inch.  Less as you head further south, with the rain line likely not getting further south than Point Sur.

Grey days, grey gulls.  It is always fun to be at the water's edge.

All that said, it is still quite uncertain if we will get any rain at all in Santa Cruz.  We will be lightly brushed by this system, before the core dissipates and migrates north in the Gulf.  Regardless, it is nice to see some water falling in some parts of the state.  And did you notice how the dust even settled for a day or two?  Pretty cool.  Timing looks to be a replica of last week, with rain impacting the coastal communities from late Wednesday through the morning hours on Thursday.  Clouds likely to linger Thursday and clearing out Friday afternoon.  High pressure begins to take a hold then.

We start off on the southern edge of the high pressure that builds to our north.  Expect some north west winds developing as the high gets squeezed by lows continuing to move across the norther Gulf waters.  Slowly, the high fills out more, and we begin see it shift south.  As we get more centered under it, along it's north side, we would see the off shore warm flow begin.  As in, autumn weather.  Far from certain, but there is that forecast for warmth seven days out.  By ten days, it looks quite nice.  On the other hand, those low pressures to our north could always punch through and bring more rain.  Time will tell.

More on this week's possible rain, and next week's possible warmth in a few days.  Until then, go outside.  It is beautiful out there.

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