Sunday, November 30, 2014

A break, and then some more rain.

Gotta be real quick tonight.  Need some sleep.  Things cleared out nicely this afternoon in Monterey, and at least the rain held off late in the day in Santa Cruz.  Tomorrow looks to be fair in town Monday, with rain coming back in midday Tuesday.  I'll get a better update during the day tomorrow, but wanted to let you know to get out and stomp some puddles on Monday.  Should be nice out there.  Not too warm, low 60s, but it will feel nice in the sun if it pokes through.

Friday, November 28, 2014

Okay, get ready to rumble.

Slight fine tuning to the forecast today.  Gonna go quick.  Rain is already moving down the coast and inland to our north.  Hard to believe, cause it is just gorgeous out there right now.  Should show up here in town mid day tomorrow.  It will be quite heavy just north of here.  Rain will likely be of a showery nature until the system axis shifts more N-S on Sunday, when we will see some significant rain.  Expect rain to continue for the Monday morning commute, but we are now expecting a break in the action later in the day Monday.  Could be some good stomping weather for the sunset.  But that is not all.  The core of the system will begin to move onshore later Monday night, with heavier rain beginning to impact the region through Wednesday.  Showery to clearing weather for Thursday.  So yeah, a wet run over the next five or so days.  I'll try to get a look at the weather next week as we move through the weekend.

Perkins Cove, Maine.  Boats and water.

In short, expect wet weather the next two days.  I'm expecting lighter showery weather for Saturday morning,  You might even be able to get a run in before the rain starts.  Anyway, the heavy rain line is looking to be just to our north, as in like near Pescadero.  So, yeah, a slight shift, and it will rain hard here.  Anyway, when it does come, it will fill in and it will get really wet.  Maybe we could see a break late Sunday, but much more likely it will not break until Monday.  More later.

Oh, and the surf was quite excellent today.

Thursday, November 27, 2014

Models drastically diverge as we approach rain event and cook turkey.

Seriously, guys, can't we just come to an agreement.  Gonna be a short post today with just some of the vitals.  Get outside and enjoy today and tomorrow.  Upper 60s today and lower 60s tomorrow.  Rain will approach from the north on Friday night.  Exactly what happens then is hard to tell.  The global models which were all basically in agreement just 36 hours ago, now have all types of different scenarios in places for the next week starting on Saturday.  I won't bother going into details here, but the only thing that is for sure is we will see some rain over the weekend.  Go ahead and read my past two posts for some idea on what that might look like.

More water please.

As of now, it does look like the may low will remain off the coast until at least Tuesday, so we might see lighter showers, or even some sun late Sunday into Monday before another round of storms.  I'll keep watching and report more later.  Got to go baste some bird now.

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Hell or High Water.

Yeah, folks, time to pay attention.  Slight adjustments in forecast.  BTW, today was pretty damn nice out, eh?  A bit cooler tomorrow for the turkey, but otherwise not real significant change.  Maybe an uptick in the swell late.  Friday will be a bit cooler again, getting us down to the low 60s for a mid day high.  Still plenty of sunshine and light wind as the storm lines up to our north.  By Saturday we should see the rain fill in down here in Santa Cruz.  Heaviest rain falling over night and into early Sunday morning.  Storm now is forecast to continue stalled offshore, maybe even shifting south a bit, before progressing on shore late Monday into Tuesday.  We should see some break in between rain systems.  Rain could persist into Wednesday.  Still a bunch up in the air for the part next week.

Water.  More is on its way.

As you prep for your feast keep in mind a few things.  We could see some good accumulating rain fall this weekend.  It may be here before sunrise on Saturday.  It will be heavy when it does.  All in all, we could be looking at four inches or more here in town, with several more in the local hills.  Please be prepared.  If this comes in as forecast, this will be the biggest system in two years.  Nothing crazy, but not something we have had to deal with in a while.  Expect runoff, some small flooding and drainage issues.  Have you rain coat and wellies on standby.  And also, if you are commuting on Monday, check back on the forecast before you hit the road.  The early part of next week you likely will need to plan for some extra time on the road.

I'll be keeping an eye on the approaching systems as I roast a bird, feast on a meal and consume leftovers the next few days.  Check back here for updates.

Tuesday, November 25, 2014


Well, when I got in my car north of Davenport, about 200 yards from the water, at 11AM, the thermometer read a nice 70F.  For reals.  While it was far from hot yesterday, it was quite the pleasant day.  And today should not disappoint with the high just a few degrees warmer.  The breeze is off shore, strongest in the morning.  Already the air is warming up nicely.  A great day to be outside.  Hell, it will be a great few days to be outside.  Can you say, "Happy Thanksgiving!"?  Thursday will not be quite as warm as the next two, but I'd put a dollar bet on the fact that we top 70F in the sunny spots downtown.  Thankfully, it is cooling off nicely just before sunset, so when you decide to sit down to gravy smothered tubars, cream soaked stale bread and a spiced spiked cider, it will feel the right temperature out.  Mornings are still dipping down into the 40s.  46F by my car thermometer at about 6:20 this morning.

Wildflowers.  These are east coast, but the west coast could be going into natural bloom.

So, what happens next.  First, I am confident we will see some rain late Sunday and early Monday.  For the most part, I am sticking with my thoughts the other day, with rain filling in late Saturday and lasting through Tuesday.  The storm is looking well and cool, with warm air out in front.  This mornings model run keeps the storm just to our north Friday, through the day Saturday.  When I say "just", I mean just.  Marin could measure a inch by later Saturday, while we might just have clouds threatening.  At the least, Friday will feel cooler, with much less sun.  But the dip will be close to 10F cooler than Wednesday, so it could feel down right chilly.  Look for a high in the low 60s Friday.  Saturday will barely push into the low 60s.  Chances of rain increase through the day, as the axis of the storm begins to turn more N-S by Sunday.  This will begin to allow the colder air to drive south.

On Saturday, given the current model runs, we will be most likely dry, with a chance of a sporadic light shower or two.  If the core of the system moves 100 miles south, we will see heavy rain like Marin is currently forecast.  When the storm shifts N-S, and the rain fills in on Sunday, it will be continuous, and moderate to strong.  The light wind we are going to see all week, will start flowing light out of the SE Saturday, and then build strong out of the SW on Sunday.  The ocean will be stormy, unless you head to Monterey.  Heaviest rain will still be to our north Sunday, but by Monday, the storm will push ashore, and a piece will break off and move south.  This would be great for us, sending copious liquid to Tahoe and SoCal, leaving us only with moderate rain.  Don't get me wrong, Monday will be wet.  And Cold.  We might hang in the upper 50s.  But not too wet.  I mean, our ground can only soak in so much at a time.  Too much rain, and ours juts runs to the sea.  Better get that water deeper into the state.  Better yet to store it as two to four feet of snow, and save it for spring.  Better yet, get enough so the ski resorts can start opening terrain for the holiday season.  Give our water and economy a boost at the same time.  Killer.

By Tuesday the bulk of the system will be well east.  Showers continue across the state, strongest along the Sierra Crest.  Cold air in place at elevation.  Cool air down here.  High pressure building in from the west, will likely drive a northwest flow on Tuesday.  And back to the grind of sun, warming, and off shore flow.  It is tough living in central California.

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Heat Wave, Turkey Style.

Well, those weather systems brought a decent dose of rain to us locally, and Saturday's actually penetrated deep into the state.  Alas, warm air kept the snow from falling, except along the highest peaks.  Ski season is still on hold, other than a few manmade runs at Heavenly and Northstar.  If you are planning a Thanksgiving ski adventure, those might be your best options.  But, really, why would you want to be anywhere except Santa Cruz for this coming week.  Especially early, things are going to be pretty damn nice.  High pressure is filling in strong after yesterday's rain, and it is setting up shop over the next few days.  A clear nighttime sky will allow you to see that crescent moon just at night, and it will allow the release of a lot of heat making for a damn crisp morning.  Monday will start off in the mid 40s, warming up around 9AM, with an early afternoon of about 70F in town.  A touch cooler near the ocean.  Tuesday looks even better with temps across town climbing squarely into the 70s.  We should maintain low 70F highs through Thanksgiving.  By Friday, the temperature begins to drop as a low pressure system begins to take residence just offshore.

Nubble Light, again, cause this place rocks.

My thinking today is we will not see any rain until at least Saturday, and light at that.  The system will begin to slowly move ashore on Sunday, pushing heavy rain into the region by late in the day.   By Monday, all of central California will be being effected, with SoCal getting a good dose by Tuesday.  Snow for the Sierra.  Now, yesterday, this system was slated to be hitting us hard by Friday, so we could see a chance for that.  And who knows, maybe it will all head way north like most of what we have seen this season so far.  Still a good five days out from the onset, and a week plus from the core, so a lot can, and will, change.  If you are planning on getting to the mountains, the current forecast keeps things dry until Sunday, but when things do  start, it looks warm.  Again, different scenario than yesterday's models that suggested a colder start.

In short, some fine nice weather for at least the next four days.  Inclement weather again looking likely, but timing still up in the air.  Rain possible as early as Friday, but likely holding off until later on Saturday.  Keep tuned.

Friday, November 21, 2014

One more to come, then some increasingly fine weather through Turkey Day.

Shifting, shifting.  That rain stuck around for a while yesterday afternoon, boosting up some more admirable totals.  Almost half an inch down by Watsonville, and more than 3/4th up in the Santa Cruz Mountains.  The Sierra Crest was dusted in the south, with close to a foot north of Lake Tahoe.  Maybe we are starting to make the smallest of dents.  Starting.  And Smallest.  Anyway, that sun is poking out there today.  Plenty of clouds up around the hills, and a fog on the water, but a fair amount of blue none the less.  The next system upstream has already moved ashore, with light rain as far south as Redway along the coast.  Rain will filter south into the North Bay overnight, spreading south and east in the morning.  In Santa Cruz today things are pretty nice.  Warm in front of this next storm, which by the way, is a warmer storm than the last.  Clouds will begin developing late.  I expect a fairly nice sunset this evening, with just the right amount of clouds, and that late fall light.  Clouds fill in over night, keeping us well within the 50s.  Rain likely will develop around sunrise.  Hard to tell.  Just depends on how far south the core of this things pushes.  Somewhere will have a nice dose of heavy rain.  Showers will develop late morning through early afternoon.  The sky should clear out for night fall, making for another awesome sunset.  You could think of this as a romantic weekend.

Saturday afternoon could have some stiff northwest winds as the high pressure behind this system fills in.  Sunday morning will be one of the chillier mornings of the season yet.  Not quite cold, but it could be nice and crisp.  It is just this next storm is not bringing a cold airmass with it.  Then, under that high pressure, things will begin to warm up, with off shores developing through the week.  And some fun sized swell will fill in to start off Sunday and the workweek right.  Could be golden hour kind of week, and gorgeous weather for the holiday.  GFS still on track for a decent storm to show up soon after you have your turkey sandwich on Friday.  But the way things have been terribly inaccurate with the model lately, don't hold your breath.

Thursday, November 20, 2014

On again, off again.

Do you remember that (often annoying) couple from high school who first started dating as Freshmen, and broke up and got together a dozen or so times before heading to prom together?  Usually didn't work out to well in the long run.  Well, that is kind of how the models have felt recently.  It want to yell, "just make up your mind!  Choose something!"  Of course, I don't, mostly because yelling at your computer is considered uncouth.  Today's GFS lacks any real penetration into the Sierra this weekend, dropping potential snow totals to less than a foot.  Yet, this morning, I am beginning to wonder if it is not the models, but the actual weather that can not make up its mind.  Yesterday at noon thirty, it looked like the storm was going to easily move over the Sierra, dropping a few inches or more of snow.  Instead, it just hung out on top of us, keeping the drizzle going until dark.  Good for our dry ground, but not so good for the state.  Most of our water runs to the ocean.

This morning's 5 day precip map still indicates a total of almost a half inch here between the next two systems.  Almost an inch in Tahoe.  A bit more to the north.  Over 5 inches in the northwest corner of the state, with almost seven inches around Mt. Rainier, and another 6.5" peak near Mt. Shuksan (Mt. Baker, ene of Seattle).  Maybe a few hundredths of an inch throughout SCal.  Yeah, not really looking like a El Nino spread.  We still have that Jet Stream not dug enough south to bring us the heavy rains we so very much need.

We still look on track for afternoon showers today, drying out by Friday morning.  The airmass remains cool, with our high today just about 60F.  Some warmer air could filter in on Friday ahead of the next system.  Again, each run of the models move these systems further and further north, decreasing our expected rainfall.  The 12h run today actually suggest we see nothing from the third system.  I would not plan on that.  Timing would likely be rain starting just before sunrise on Saturday, with showers lingering through the morning.  Likely just some clouds by afternoon.  Mid 60s through the day, with some stars overnight.  And with cool air moving in behind the storm, we could drop down into the mid 40s.  Depending on cloud cover, and the air mass, some of the mountain valleys in the Santa Cruz Mountains could see a drop into the 30s for Sunday morning.  Stoke that stove or clean out your heating box and ducts.  If you have not turned them on yet this season, you will likely do so this weekend.  With increasing sunshine, Sunday could warm up nicely into the mid to upper 60s.

Still looks like a nice high pressure fills in for the start of next week.  Not to mention a developing swell on Sunday.  With morning offshores, and sunshine, it could be a real fun time to get in the ocean.  And if you are surfing in town, be aware that any run off we are getting right now, likely contains 10 months of crap and bacteria in it.  Try not to be down stream.  Unless you like hepatitis.  Okay, maybe that is hyperbole, but just beware.

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Well, snap, it is looking all European.

First, looks like I was off on timing.  I heard some heavy pitter patter dropping hard around 4AM.  It subsided, and there was good light at the sunrise.  Anomaly I thought.  Then on the drive to school at 8:30 thins morning, it began to rain.  Not a heavy rain, but a steady rain.  Felt nice.  And I was so sure that the rain would hold off until later, I brought not one piece of protective gear.  And while it rained on us for the walk to and from the classroom, it was not enough to do much more than dampen us.  Locally (as of 1PM), Ben Lomond is reporting 4/10th of an inch.  Bates Creek, north of Soquel 4/100th of an inch.  So a ten fold difference.  Watsonville just at 1/100th.  Most places not actually reporting.  Felt like a tenth or so here on the west side.  I need to buy a real gauge and keep it ready.  Anyway, to our north a decent rain fell.  Mt St. Helena reporting 3/4ths of an inch, Pt Reyes St. 2/3rds, Napa 2/10ths, a tenth in SF.  Pretty decent numbers actually.  Currently the bulk of the storm is moving east, which is great news for water collection and the ski resorts.  It now looks like a ecent chance for a few inches or more over the crest.  I don't see much more coming ashore this afternoon, so mostly light drizzle or less this afternoon.  Ultimately, this looked more like the Euro output than the GFS.  Definately the case for moisture output, and how far inland it would get.  Today, the 12h GFS is looking a little more in like with the Euro, bringing in system number 2 a little wetter, with system 3 drier.

Even last year had some snow, despite its leanness.  Hoping to get some white on the mountains tonight.

Short term, we will have mostly a heavy, grey sky for the next 24 hours.  After than, more rain begins to fall from it.  This next system even brings in some cooler air, with the high Thursday in the low 60s, and overnight temps dropping into the 40s.  The heaviest rainfall should be in the afternoon hours Thursday, but could persist through the evening.  Maybe a half inch locally. We should dry out a little bit on Friday, but I would not expect much of the cloud cover to part.  We might have enough breaks to give us a stellar sunset Friday evening.  Fingers crossed.  More rain will come from the north on Saturday, likely in the afternoon.  Todays model run has really backed off on the precipitation with this one, with most being drained out to the north.  Santa Cruz would be measured in the hundredths of an inch.  But with these models flipping every 6h run, you can really rely to greatly on them.  High pressure builds in on Sunday and persists through Thanksgiving.  Chance of a big one after that.

If you don't mind a few puddles, then get out this afternoon or tomorrow morning.  Or wait for mid day Friday.  If you need the sun to be shining, Sunday will be your day.  Or Monday.  Heck, could even see a little warm up.  But the next few days will be mostly wet and cool.

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Headed into a moderately wet run over the next week.

Damn these models.  They can not seem to make up their minds.  So, I have been perusing a variety of models, forecasts and outlets, and yeah, no one can seem to make up their minds.  Even an number of typically regularly updated sites are balking on making a call.  Screw it.  Here is mine for the the next few days.  I'd like to remind you though, that my confidence is high that we will see inclement weather, with few breaks between now and Sunday.  On the other hand, my confidence is low in actually timing and intensity of the events.  Okay, maybe not low.  Perhaps moderate.  So, here it goes.  The rest of today should be fair.  High in the mid to upper 60s, with a partly cloudy sky and light southerly flow.  Clouds increase through the afternoon and evening.

The first turns of the year snow is likely mostly gone by now.

The storm that is just offshore will be weakened by the high pressure as it moves near us.  It will also get pushed to the north.  We should still see some light showers, mostly likely during the afternoon hours on Wednesday.  It is possible that we could see some rain as early as pre-dawn hours on Wednesday, but the bulk should be here around noon, and clearing out overnight.  Round two is coming in from the north west, hot on its heels.  It is also packing a little bit more moisture.  A little.  And arriving Thursday afternoon.  So we could be looking as two days with clouds in the morning and rain in the afternoon.  Friday is looking like a little bit of a break, but moisture could linger through the morning hours.  By midday Saturday, round 3 will move down the coast, and bring another bought of light rain.  Still expecting between a 1/4 and 1/3 inch through the period.  These systems will also bring some colder air to the Sierra Nevada, so a bit of snow is looking likely.  Not enough to open up much terrain, but helping get the resorts ready for a turkey day opening.

Clearing on Sunday as the high pressure makes a rebound.  Then it looks like we could have a few days of fair, warmer weather before the holiday weekend.  More on that to come.  Hell, I can't even look at the next five days with much confidence, no point trying to interrupt the fluctuating 10 day models.

Monday, November 17, 2014

Active, but unimpressive.

So, no real big change to the forecast since Saturday, unless you consider that every storm looks a bit weaker (again) on the 6AM GFS this morning.  The Euro and Canadian are kind of in line, in that they are not predicting strong, very wet storms.  Too bad.  A bunch of us were getting excited.  I have my hill ready for some real rain.  I do need some to help tamp down the current terrace before I build my next wall.  Anyway, the pattern is looking active, but not really all that impressive.  And we still have another two days of fair weather on tap.  Although yesterday was quite a bit cooler than expected.  So, I'm going to stick with that trend and call for only mid to upper 60s, and mostly sunny today.  Should drop to the upper 40s for dawn Tuesday, with a similiar afternoon as today.

Chance of rain begins after sunset Tuesday and kind of lasts through the work week.  That is one of the problems with these weak systems, they can spread out an lag, instead of dumping and moving.  Anyway, it looks likely we will see some light showery weather by Wednesday morning, along with some slightly cooler air.  Highs for the day will top out around the low to mid 60s.  And here is where things get tricky.  Due the storm weakening just as it comes upon us, it makes it harder for it to get swept out by the jet.  Think of it like a tennis ball.  When in one piece, your racket can send it swiftly to the other side of the court.  Now puncture it a bunch, or even tear it into pieces.  Not so easy to send very far or very swiftly any more.  And a lot less predictable.  A grey sky continues through the night and into Thursday, with the lingering threat of drizzle.  Daily highs stay about the same.  By Early Friday morning, another system increases our chance of rain.  A third arrives mid morning Saturday, and this one looks likely to be the strongest.  Chance for clearing on Sunday.  Confidence low, as the models keep changing on the details.  All told, we are looking at about a third to half an inch of rain during the period.

The pattern remains weakly progressive beyond, with some possible rain during the upcoming holiday week.  I'll keep updating for changes in the pattern this week, and looking at next week with eager eyes.  Next Wednesday is one of the busiest road days of the year, and we could be seeing it wet.  Best to make plans, leave early and roll slow.  More on this and turkey week later.

Saturday, November 15, 2014

Looks like some rain next week.

But not the torrents the GFS and other models were calling for just a few days ago.  We will get to that shortly.  First, a weakening storm will try to impact the very north west corner of the state tomorrow, while a big high pressure works to keep the other 99% dry.  For us, more of the same over the next few days, with highs in the upper 60s to very low 70s, and lows i the upper 40s to very low 50s.  Mostly sunny, with some clouds and light coastal fog developing overnight.  With some light and variable winds over the outer waters, it looks like a great few days to get out on the water.  We will even see another small up tick in the swell early in the work week.  But by late on Tuesday, we could be looking at a chance of rain developing.

Get your gear in order.  With a little luck, you could be schussing by Turkey Day.

Every single run of the GFS is showing fairly significant changes from the prior runs.  It is as if the models can not seem to make up their mind.  Regardless, several storms are lining up to give us a number of chances of rain.  The southern jet is not looking quite as energized as it was looking last week, and the first of these storms looks like it could bring some light rain to Santa Cruz for Wednesday.  This storm gets quickly deflected north before bringing much precipitation.  If it plays as such, Thursday looks mostly sunny.  Another storm tries to make inroads on Friday, but it looks like it will fall apart, bringing only a drizzle.  A third, and stronger, system could line up for late Saturday and into Sunday.  This one looks quite a bit wetter.  As of now, confidence is low for all of this.  I merely want to share the chance of rain with you.  It will take another few days to get a handle on all of this and get an idea of actually intensity and timing.  I doubt you need to baton down the hatches for the coming week, but I also expect we will see at least some rain.  How much, time will tell.  I'll take a look at the GFS and a few other models tomorrow, and hope to put out a work week forecast.  In the meantime, get outside and enjoy our late fall weather.  Sunday is looking quite nice.

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

The twenty four hour flip flop.

Before we get to our foot wear we need to quickly discuss the next twenty four hours.  Right on track.  While this system has scene a little fluctuation in its forecast, it has been a pretty steady looking light rain for our area.  Santa Cruz should get some light rain beginning overnight tonight.  I'm guess around 3AM we will see the start of a light drizzle, with some moderate showers by first light, with things tapering off through the early morning hours.  Rain ending around 11AM.  Clouds remain. And of course, a chance of a passing shower.  Cool, with a high in the mid to upper 60s.  And the surf should see a bump up onThursday as well.  We could be seeing stars out tomorrow night.  As we move through Friday and into the weekend, warming is on track with a high on Sunday in the low 70s.  Regardless, the increasing sunshine will make things feel much warmer.  And the clear nights will be a bit cooler, dropping back down in tot he upper 40s.

Chair 10 at Kirwood is awaiting another round of snow.  Might get a few inches tonight.

Now, for those flip flops.  Yesterday, the noon GFS (and every run since Sunday 6AM at least) was looking very wet for next week.  In fact, the noon run was suggesting something in the neighborhood of seven inches of rain in ten days starting next Monday.  Each 6 hour run since then it has backed further and further off, until this evening , where it looks almost completely dry during the same period.  That is a very big change.  The thought was that the remnants of Nuri, which is about to bring us rain, would energize the southern branch of the Jet Stream, and send us a pummeling.  There was no way I was buying into seven inches, but I was hoping for three.  Now, I am not so sure about even a half.  Gonna let it run a few more models before I spend much time thinking too much more about it.  Just be ready for just about anything.

Rain tonight and through the middle of the day tomorrow.  Clearing late and overnight.  Then Friday looking nice, as does the weekend.  Likely some sort of rain event next week.  No need to build an ark just yet.

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Wow, folks, this may be for reals.

This morning, just before 8AM, I saw a few areas of blue poking through that marine layer.  And odd things this thing.  Kind of feels like summer, but not really.  Well, anyway, that was the last of the blue I saw today, as those high fog clouds stuck through till the end.  Still thinking we could see that marine layer clear out ahead of the storm tomorrow.  Could mean it will feel a touch warmer if the sun is hitting you, but doubtful we will get much north of 65F.  By later in the day we should see the clouds ahead of the rain system filling in.  Could set us up for a nice sunset.  Anyway, from the models I've seen today, still looks like the rain should fill in after midnight in Santa Cruz.  Also looks like we could see light, sporadic showers through most of the daylight hours on Thursday.  High in the 60s again.

The Sierra Crest got a bit of snow over Halloween.  Just enough to make it white.

So, it looks like we could have a nice weekend on tap.  Models still have not settled on a solution for the potential system on Sunday, so we have two scenarios setting up.  Number one has us drying out Thursday night, with a good shot of sun on Friday, and even more through the weekend, with high temps moving up to the low 70s by the weekend.  Scenario number two has that warmth and sunshine interrupted by some clouds and showers on Sunday.  Let us assume for now it will be nice.  You will know where to check for an update.  But that is not even the news.

I've got two items today.  First, we have the surf setting up for something fun to watch or play in by Thursday.  That whole super storm up in the Bearing Sea actually recorded the lowest barometric pressure in recorded history.  Well, that is sending us some waves for Wednesday, but with a poor trajectory, and filtering by the Aleutians, that is not really the news.  As the storm (which by the way is the same one that will be bringing us showers Thursday) moved south into the Gulf of Alaska, is began building fetches on top of long period swell,  and that will over run us on Thursday, along with locally produced waves as the storm moves ashore.  Could really churn things up.  Maybe some big surf up the coast, but I would not expect this thing to look pristine in much of anyway.  Just perhaps a welcome to the winter season.  As local conditions mellow into the weekend, we could be left with plenty of swell to clean up and make for real fun surf.

Item number two.  More and more it is looking like a wet week next week.  As in very wet.  First storm is lined up to arrive on Monday, with plenty queuing up behind it.  Could be rain every day.  Some days recording over an inch.  Maybe several of those kind of days.  Yeah, still pretty far out with the first one still six days out, so sure, a lot can change.  You just may want to consider using this weekend to fix any leaks, do erosion control work, bring in your tools, and toys, and anything that might blow away.  Could be a good time to plant some lettuce seed.  More on this later, but keep it in the back of your mind.  It has been a while since we have seen a period like this.  Could be fun for some.  Hectic for others.

Monday, November 10, 2014

Upper elevation snow and light rain below becoming likely for mid week.

When I was seeing suggestions of such things a week ago, I was feeling pretty skeptical about a wet outcome.  The pattern was starting to feel set in its ways, and memories of past few winters kept me from feeling hopeful.  With the noon run of the GFS today keeping us on track for a little moisture this week, I can say that some light showers is likely in the Bay Area this coming Thursday.  As for the fog clearing to partly sunny skies today, you can pretty much forget about that.  Anyway.  South winds along the open cost, but variable winds out by the buoys, and calm here in town has me thinking that fog will stick around through most of the day.  So plan for early darkness tonight.  It is cool out there as well.  58F as of 1:30 in the afternoon.  Tomorrow is not looking all too different.  Maybe a slightly better chance of seeing the sun peak through for a few minutes mid day.  Maybe. High pressure tries to fill back in on Wednesday, but a system coming into the CA/OR border won't really allow that to happen.  Or rather, high pressure to the north of there, forces this thing under it.  There will be rain up on the Del Norte coast for sure.  As in over an inch.  We will be scraped by the southern end of this one.  Deja vu?

There has been some fun autumn surf around.  Conditions will be erratic this week, so check your flags.

Currently it looks like the system will impact us in the very early morning hours of Thursday, until about 10AM.  Clouds will replace fog early Wednesday, and there will be a chance we could get pockets of light showers passing through later in the day.  Of course they will be more likely to our north, along the west facing coast in along the coastal ridge lines.  By evening, more widespread showers will fill in from the north.  I suspect that the evening commute in the North Bay might be wet, but dry in the South Bay.  But by Thursday morning, showers will likely be at least as far south as Monterey.  Both days will remain in the mid 60s.  Mid day should see clearing with most of the showers dissipated, or shifted northeast by night fall.  And get this, Friday will likely be sunny and warming back into the upper 60s.  Maybe even 70F.  All told we are looking at just a few tenths of an inch in Santa Cruz, a quarter inch in Marin, and a half inch or more north of Point Reyes.  The Tahoe region could a half foot along the peaks to the north, and a few inches to the south.

Saturday looks like Friday.  Another system tries to impact the north state y Sunday morning.  Will keep an eye on this one to see if any moisture splits off and heads south.  Charts are still looking wet starting around the 19th/20th, with some systems centered south of us.  Gonna keep an eye on this one as well.  So check back about rain later this week, and perhaps the start of winter next week.  That would be fun, eh?

Sunday, November 9, 2014

Big Changes Afoot.

Seriously, what a difference a few days can make.  My son and I were feeling a little under the weather toward the end of last week, and feeling much better over the weekend, we spent much of it out of doors.  Saturday evening was simply gorgeous out along the cliffs of Wilder Ranch State Park.  The cormorants and the sea lions were doing their thing, as the setting sun did its thing.   And while things cooled off late in the day, we were strolling along in short pants and short sleeves.  Then a little fog filled in overnight.  By day break it was mostly out over the water, but you likely noticed it move ashore late this afternoon.  Well, that stuff is planning on sticking around for the next few days.  And that is going to keep things a bit cooler as well.  Oh, and there is a chance of rain later int he week.  Seriously, that there is a big change.  And the long term, which is at best unreliable, has a hose pointed at us for the week before Thanksgiving.  So yeah, big changes are afoot.

Autumn has arrived.

Okay, so Monday will begin with some thick fog.  And cool, with a low of about 50F.  While that fog should pull out to some degree during the day, it will only reveal a partly cloudy sky.  The afternoon high will top out in the mid to high 60s.  Veteran's day looks like a duplicate.  And while that fog should be gone for Wednesday, we still will be hanging in the 60s.  What is of most interest in this evening's posts is the small, weak, low pressure system that will be trying to squeeze under the high pressure to our north and over the high pressure to our south.  Could be this thing gets squeezed dry before coming ashore, but right now the models are suggesting that it will drop a little rain on Northern California as it speeds through.  We even have a decent chance of some light rain here, starting around Midnight on Wednesday and into the day on Thursday.  Best guess right now is for just about one tenth of an inch.  I will keep an eye on this one and report back here over the next few days.  Behind it is dryer, cooler air.  So Friday and next weekend look sunny and clear and crisp.  Lows dropping into the upper 40s and highs in the upper 60s.

Something else to note for this week is some building surf.  Tonight a small to moderate northwest swell is filling in.  Nothing large, just fun, 14 second period surf.  Right now extra tropical storm Nuri is in the Bearing Sea with a pressure of about 958mb, squeezed up against high pressure to its south, generating some solid winds and 40ft seas.  A few days ago the models were suggesting a historical kind of swell, but now it looks more like just some fun six foot long period swell that should generate some solid ten foot waves.  Enough to get the juices flowing.  Should arrive Wednesday and peak Thursday.  Will need to watch those winds, but likely sunset at the lighthouse will be a good show.

Now, let us talk about those long term models.  Yup, they totally suck.  But I thought a mention would be a good idea, because (according to them) about ten days out, and right through the turkey holiday weekend, we are going to be wet.  As in very wet.  As in multiple inches of liquid.  Not every damn day will be torrential, but like, pretty much.  Now, as I have noted, these models are about as good at prediction as an Ouija board is at contacting the dead.  Still, we have not seen something like this modeled in quite some time.  Like as in not since December of 2012.  So, yeah, you just might want to monitor this stuff as we get closer and start to wrap up, say, any roof jobs you got going.  Or really any thing that needs to be wrapped up before we get a run of heavy rains.  Anyway, nothing to worry about just yet, but check back often and don't get caught with your pants down.  

Thursday, November 6, 2014


Well folks, that wonderful pattern of gorgeous warm weather mid week punctuated by light to moderate rain every weekend has come to a close.  Now we are stuck in a pattern of nothing but gorgeous, warm weather.  At least for the short term.  A solid high pressure has developed over us and looks to stick around for at least the coming week.  Boring.  Daily highs in the mid 70s for the next few days and early morning lows in the low 50s.  Sunshine abounds with barely a wisp of cloud in the sky.  Some might call this perfect fall weather.  While I agree it is great weather for finishing up your outside projects before the onset of weather, I do wish we still had some rain in the forecast.  Now, let us look at some details for this week.

It was fun while it lasted you rotten pumpkin.

Saturday is looking like it will be the warmest of the of the period.  Today, Thursday will be a touch cooler than yesterday was, as will Friday.  Not sure if Saturday will be quite as warm as Wednesday was, but it will be really close.  Sunday will not be far behind.  So, yeah, warm.  And stagnant.  We will begin to see a bit a bit of a cooling trend on Monday though, and by the middle of next week, the daily high will drop into the mid to upper 60s.

So, this time of year, when looking at forecast models, anything beyond three days out is not terribly reliable.  Trends can be helpful to look at though, and the trend of a blocking high does seem likely.  As we move into the 3-7 day range, the trend line can be a reliable tool, but smaller details of the forecast are hard to have much confidence with.  Beyond that we really make our best geustimate.  Blah, blah, blah.  And why am I bothering typing this?  Mostly because we have seen a consistent forecast of some sort of rain storm for around Friday the 14th.  This is still 9 days out, so until we get a few days closer, this is really just some guessing.  But maybe we are not in stagnation.  Maybe the pattern has taken the week off.  Gone on vacation.  Maybe we will return to rainy weekend again next week.  Could we be so blessed?  Time will tell.  For now, get out and enjoy the weather and the awesome weekend weather we are about to enjoy.

Monday, November 3, 2014

Would ya like a warm up?

I hear that in a upstate New York accent, with a half cup of diner joe in front of me.  But, anyway, you are going to get one.  Nothing epic, but after the cool weather this past weekend, it will be a little less crisp.  We are in for a run of good weather, as it looks like the pattern of one again, off again is making a change.  Tuesday should start off pretty crisp, with an overnight low of just about 50F.  Sunrise should be nice and red.  Mostly sunny, and warming back up into the low 70s.  A bit less chilly for Wednesday morning, and a high reaching up toward 80F.  Nice, yo.  That looks like the peak, but high pressure should stick around for the end of the work week and through the weekend.  No rain in sight.  At least right now.  Of course, things change quickly this time of year, so it best to keep abreast. But as of this evening, the next real chance of rain falls some where in the mid or long term forecast.  Around mid month.  I'll write up in a bit more detail later this week.  As of now, just get out and enjoy that sunshine.  And a puddle or two if you can still find them.

Fun weather means fun clouds.