Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Headed into a moderately wet run over the next week.

Damn these models.  They can not seem to make up their minds.  So, I have been perusing a variety of models, forecasts and outlets, and yeah, no one can seem to make up their minds.  Even an number of typically regularly updated sites are balking on making a call.  Screw it.  Here is mine for the the next few days.  I'd like to remind you though, that my confidence is high that we will see inclement weather, with few breaks between now and Sunday.  On the other hand, my confidence is low in actually timing and intensity of the events.  Okay, maybe not low.  Perhaps moderate.  So, here it goes.  The rest of today should be fair.  High in the mid to upper 60s, with a partly cloudy sky and light southerly flow.  Clouds increase through the afternoon and evening.

The first turns of the year snow is likely mostly gone by now.

The storm that is just offshore will be weakened by the high pressure as it moves near us.  It will also get pushed to the north.  We should still see some light showers, mostly likely during the afternoon hours on Wednesday.  It is possible that we could see some rain as early as pre-dawn hours on Wednesday, but the bulk should be here around noon, and clearing out overnight.  Round two is coming in from the north west, hot on its heels.  It is also packing a little bit more moisture.  A little.  And arriving Thursday afternoon.  So we could be looking as two days with clouds in the morning and rain in the afternoon.  Friday is looking like a little bit of a break, but moisture could linger through the morning hours.  By midday Saturday, round 3 will move down the coast, and bring another bought of light rain.  Still expecting between a 1/4 and 1/3 inch through the period.  These systems will also bring some colder air to the Sierra Nevada, so a bit of snow is looking likely.  Not enough to open up much terrain, but helping get the resorts ready for a turkey day opening.

Clearing on Sunday as the high pressure makes a rebound.  Then it looks like we could have a few days of fair, warmer weather before the holiday weekend.  More on that to come.  Hell, I can't even look at the next five days with much confidence, no point trying to interrupt the fluctuating 10 day models.

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