Do you remember that (often annoying) couple from high school who first started dating as Freshmen, and broke up and got together a dozen or so times before heading to prom together? Usually didn't work out to well in the long run. Well, that is kind of how the models have felt recently. It want to yell, "just make up your mind! Choose something!" Of course, I don't, mostly because yelling at your computer is considered uncouth. Today's GFS lacks any real penetration into the Sierra this weekend, dropping potential snow totals to less than a foot. Yet, this morning, I am beginning to wonder if it is not the models, but the actual weather that can not make up its mind. Yesterday at noon thirty, it looked like the storm was going to easily move over the Sierra, dropping a few inches or more of snow. Instead, it just hung out on top of us, keeping the drizzle going until dark. Good for our dry ground, but not so good for the state. Most of our water runs to the ocean.
This morning's 5 day precip map still indicates a total of almost a half inch here between the next two systems. Almost an inch in Tahoe. A bit more to the north. Over 5 inches in the northwest corner of the state, with almost seven inches around Mt. Rainier, and another 6.5" peak near Mt. Shuksan (Mt. Baker, ene of Seattle). Maybe a few hundredths of an inch throughout SCal. Yeah, not really looking like a El Nino spread. We still have that Jet Stream not dug enough south to bring us the heavy rains we so very much need.
We still look on track for afternoon showers today, drying out by Friday morning. The airmass remains cool, with our high today just about 60F. Some warmer air could filter in on Friday ahead of the next system. Again, each run of the models move these systems further and further north, decreasing our expected rainfall. The 12h run today actually suggest we see nothing from the third system. I would not plan on that. Timing would likely be rain starting just before sunrise on Saturday, with showers lingering through the morning. Likely just some clouds by afternoon. Mid 60s through the day, with some stars overnight. And with cool air moving in behind the storm, we could drop down into the mid 40s. Depending on cloud cover, and the air mass, some of the mountain valleys in the Santa Cruz Mountains could see a drop into the 30s for Sunday morning. Stoke that stove or clean out your heating box and ducts. If you have not turned them on yet this season, you will likely do so this weekend. With increasing sunshine, Sunday could warm up nicely into the mid to upper 60s.
Still looks like a nice high pressure fills in for the start of next week. Not to mention a developing swell on Sunday. With morning offshores, and sunshine, it could be a real fun time to get in the ocean. And if you are surfing in town, be aware that any run off we are getting right now, likely contains 10 months of crap and bacteria in it. Try not to be down stream. Unless you like hepatitis. Okay, maybe that is hyperbole, but just beware.