Monday, November 10, 2014

Upper elevation snow and light rain below becoming likely for mid week.

When I was seeing suggestions of such things a week ago, I was feeling pretty skeptical about a wet outcome.  The pattern was starting to feel set in its ways, and memories of past few winters kept me from feeling hopeful.  With the noon run of the GFS today keeping us on track for a little moisture this week, I can say that some light showers is likely in the Bay Area this coming Thursday.  As for the fog clearing to partly sunny skies today, you can pretty much forget about that.  Anyway.  South winds along the open cost, but variable winds out by the buoys, and calm here in town has me thinking that fog will stick around through most of the day.  So plan for early darkness tonight.  It is cool out there as well.  58F as of 1:30 in the afternoon.  Tomorrow is not looking all too different.  Maybe a slightly better chance of seeing the sun peak through for a few minutes mid day.  Maybe. High pressure tries to fill back in on Wednesday, but a system coming into the CA/OR border won't really allow that to happen.  Or rather, high pressure to the north of there, forces this thing under it.  There will be rain up on the Del Norte coast for sure.  As in over an inch.  We will be scraped by the southern end of this one.  Deja vu?

There has been some fun autumn surf around.  Conditions will be erratic this week, so check your flags.

Currently it looks like the system will impact us in the very early morning hours of Thursday, until about 10AM.  Clouds will replace fog early Wednesday, and there will be a chance we could get pockets of light showers passing through later in the day.  Of course they will be more likely to our north, along the west facing coast in along the coastal ridge lines.  By evening, more widespread showers will fill in from the north.  I suspect that the evening commute in the North Bay might be wet, but dry in the South Bay.  But by Thursday morning, showers will likely be at least as far south as Monterey.  Both days will remain in the mid 60s.  Mid day should see clearing with most of the showers dissipated, or shifted northeast by night fall.  And get this, Friday will likely be sunny and warming back into the upper 60s.  Maybe even 70F.  All told we are looking at just a few tenths of an inch in Santa Cruz, a quarter inch in Marin, and a half inch or more north of Point Reyes.  The Tahoe region could a half foot along the peaks to the north, and a few inches to the south.

Saturday looks like Friday.  Another system tries to impact the north state y Sunday morning.  Will keep an eye on this one to see if any moisture splits off and heads south.  Charts are still looking wet starting around the 19th/20th, with some systems centered south of us.  Gonna keep an eye on this one as well.  So check back about rain later this week, and perhaps the start of winter next week.  That would be fun, eh?

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