Saturday, November 15, 2014

Looks like some rain next week.

But not the torrents the GFS and other models were calling for just a few days ago.  We will get to that shortly.  First, a weakening storm will try to impact the very north west corner of the state tomorrow, while a big high pressure works to keep the other 99% dry.  For us, more of the same over the next few days, with highs in the upper 60s to very low 70s, and lows i the upper 40s to very low 50s.  Mostly sunny, with some clouds and light coastal fog developing overnight.  With some light and variable winds over the outer waters, it looks like a great few days to get out on the water.  We will even see another small up tick in the swell early in the work week.  But by late on Tuesday, we could be looking at a chance of rain developing.

Get your gear in order.  With a little luck, you could be schussing by Turkey Day.

Every single run of the GFS is showing fairly significant changes from the prior runs.  It is as if the models can not seem to make up their mind.  Regardless, several storms are lining up to give us a number of chances of rain.  The southern jet is not looking quite as energized as it was looking last week, and the first of these storms looks like it could bring some light rain to Santa Cruz for Wednesday.  This storm gets quickly deflected north before bringing much precipitation.  If it plays as such, Thursday looks mostly sunny.  Another storm tries to make inroads on Friday, but it looks like it will fall apart, bringing only a drizzle.  A third, and stronger, system could line up for late Saturday and into Sunday.  This one looks quite a bit wetter.  As of now, confidence is low for all of this.  I merely want to share the chance of rain with you.  It will take another few days to get a handle on all of this and get an idea of actually intensity and timing.  I doubt you need to baton down the hatches for the coming week, but I also expect we will see at least some rain.  How much, time will tell.  I'll take a look at the GFS and a few other models tomorrow, and hope to put out a work week forecast.  In the meantime, get outside and enjoy our late fall weather.  Sunday is looking quite nice.

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