Wednesday, November 12, 2014

The twenty four hour flip flop.

Before we get to our foot wear we need to quickly discuss the next twenty four hours.  Right on track.  While this system has scene a little fluctuation in its forecast, it has been a pretty steady looking light rain for our area.  Santa Cruz should get some light rain beginning overnight tonight.  I'm guess around 3AM we will see the start of a light drizzle, with some moderate showers by first light, with things tapering off through the early morning hours.  Rain ending around 11AM.  Clouds remain. And of course, a chance of a passing shower.  Cool, with a high in the mid to upper 60s.  And the surf should see a bump up onThursday as well.  We could be seeing stars out tomorrow night.  As we move through Friday and into the weekend, warming is on track with a high on Sunday in the low 70s.  Regardless, the increasing sunshine will make things feel much warmer.  And the clear nights will be a bit cooler, dropping back down in tot he upper 40s.

Chair 10 at Kirwood is awaiting another round of snow.  Might get a few inches tonight.

Now, for those flip flops.  Yesterday, the noon GFS (and every run since Sunday 6AM at least) was looking very wet for next week.  In fact, the noon run was suggesting something in the neighborhood of seven inches of rain in ten days starting next Monday.  Each 6 hour run since then it has backed further and further off, until this evening , where it looks almost completely dry during the same period.  That is a very big change.  The thought was that the remnants of Nuri, which is about to bring us rain, would energize the southern branch of the Jet Stream, and send us a pummeling.  There was no way I was buying into seven inches, but I was hoping for three.  Now, I am not so sure about even a half.  Gonna let it run a few more models before I spend much time thinking too much more about it.  Just be ready for just about anything.

Rain tonight and through the middle of the day tomorrow.  Clearing late and overnight.  Then Friday looking nice, as does the weekend.  Likely some sort of rain event next week.  No need to build an ark just yet.

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