Tuesday, November 25, 2014


Well, when I got in my car north of Davenport, about 200 yards from the water, at 11AM, the thermometer read a nice 70F.  For reals.  While it was far from hot yesterday, it was quite the pleasant day.  And today should not disappoint with the high just a few degrees warmer.  The breeze is off shore, strongest in the morning.  Already the air is warming up nicely.  A great day to be outside.  Hell, it will be a great few days to be outside.  Can you say, "Happy Thanksgiving!"?  Thursday will not be quite as warm as the next two, but I'd put a dollar bet on the fact that we top 70F in the sunny spots downtown.  Thankfully, it is cooling off nicely just before sunset, so when you decide to sit down to gravy smothered tubars, cream soaked stale bread and a spiced spiked cider, it will feel the right temperature out.  Mornings are still dipping down into the 40s.  46F by my car thermometer at about 6:20 this morning.

Wildflowers.  These are east coast, but the west coast could be going into natural bloom.

So, what happens next.  First, I am confident we will see some rain late Sunday and early Monday.  For the most part, I am sticking with my thoughts the other day, with rain filling in late Saturday and lasting through Tuesday.  The storm is looking well and cool, with warm air out in front.  This mornings model run keeps the storm just to our north Friday, through the day Saturday.  When I say "just", I mean just.  Marin could measure a inch by later Saturday, while we might just have clouds threatening.  At the least, Friday will feel cooler, with much less sun.  But the dip will be close to 10F cooler than Wednesday, so it could feel down right chilly.  Look for a high in the low 60s Friday.  Saturday will barely push into the low 60s.  Chances of rain increase through the day, as the axis of the storm begins to turn more N-S by Sunday.  This will begin to allow the colder air to drive south.

On Saturday, given the current model runs, we will be most likely dry, with a chance of a sporadic light shower or two.  If the core of the system moves 100 miles south, we will see heavy rain like Marin is currently forecast.  When the storm shifts N-S, and the rain fills in on Sunday, it will be continuous, and moderate to strong.  The light wind we are going to see all week, will start flowing light out of the SE Saturday, and then build strong out of the SW on Sunday.  The ocean will be stormy, unless you head to Monterey.  Heaviest rain will still be to our north Sunday, but by Monday, the storm will push ashore, and a piece will break off and move south.  This would be great for us, sending copious liquid to Tahoe and SoCal, leaving us only with moderate rain.  Don't get me wrong, Monday will be wet.  And Cold.  We might hang in the upper 50s.  But not too wet.  I mean, our ground can only soak in so much at a time.  Too much rain, and ours juts runs to the sea.  Better get that water deeper into the state.  Better yet to store it as two to four feet of snow, and save it for spring.  Better yet, get enough so the ski resorts can start opening terrain for the holiday season.  Give our water and economy a boost at the same time.  Killer.

By Tuesday the bulk of the system will be well east.  Showers continue across the state, strongest along the Sierra Crest.  Cold air in place at elevation.  Cool air down here.  High pressure building in from the west, will likely drive a northwest flow on Tuesday.  And back to the grind of sun, warming, and off shore flow.  It is tough living in central California.

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