Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Well, snap, it is looking all European.

First, looks like I was off on timing.  I heard some heavy pitter patter dropping hard around 4AM.  It subsided, and there was good light at the sunrise.  Anomaly I thought.  Then on the drive to school at 8:30 thins morning, it began to rain.  Not a heavy rain, but a steady rain.  Felt nice.  And I was so sure that the rain would hold off until later, I brought not one piece of protective gear.  And while it rained on us for the walk to and from the classroom, it was not enough to do much more than dampen us.  Locally (as of 1PM), Ben Lomond is reporting 4/10th of an inch.  Bates Creek, north of Soquel 4/100th of an inch.  So a ten fold difference.  Watsonville just at 1/100th.  Most places not actually reporting.  Felt like a tenth or so here on the west side.  I need to buy a real gauge and keep it ready.  Anyway, to our north a decent rain fell.  Mt St. Helena reporting 3/4ths of an inch, Pt Reyes St. 2/3rds, Napa 2/10ths, a tenth in SF.  Pretty decent numbers actually.  Currently the bulk of the storm is moving east, which is great news for water collection and the ski resorts.  It now looks like a ecent chance for a few inches or more over the crest.  I don't see much more coming ashore this afternoon, so mostly light drizzle or less this afternoon.  Ultimately, this looked more like the Euro output than the GFS.  Definately the case for moisture output, and how far inland it would get.  Today, the 12h GFS is looking a little more in like with the Euro, bringing in system number 2 a little wetter, with system 3 drier.

Even last year had some snow, despite its leanness.  Hoping to get some white on the mountains tonight.

Short term, we will have mostly a heavy, grey sky for the next 24 hours.  After than, more rain begins to fall from it.  This next system even brings in some cooler air, with the high Thursday in the low 60s, and overnight temps dropping into the 40s.  The heaviest rainfall should be in the afternoon hours Thursday, but could persist through the evening.  Maybe a half inch locally. We should dry out a little bit on Friday, but I would not expect much of the cloud cover to part.  We might have enough breaks to give us a stellar sunset Friday evening.  Fingers crossed.  More rain will come from the north on Saturday, likely in the afternoon.  Todays model run has really backed off on the precipitation with this one, with most being drained out to the north.  Santa Cruz would be measured in the hundredths of an inch.  But with these models flipping every 6h run, you can really rely to greatly on them.  High pressure builds in on Sunday and persists through Thanksgiving.  Chance of a big one after that.

If you don't mind a few puddles, then get out this afternoon or tomorrow morning.  Or wait for mid day Friday.  If you need the sun to be shining, Sunday will be your day.  Or Monday.  Heck, could even see a little warm up.  But the next few days will be mostly wet and cool.

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