Monday, November 17, 2014

Active, but unimpressive.

So, no real big change to the forecast since Saturday, unless you consider that every storm looks a bit weaker (again) on the 6AM GFS this morning.  The Euro and Canadian are kind of in line, in that they are not predicting strong, very wet storms.  Too bad.  A bunch of us were getting excited.  I have my hill ready for some real rain.  I do need some to help tamp down the current terrace before I build my next wall.  Anyway, the pattern is looking active, but not really all that impressive.  And we still have another two days of fair weather on tap.  Although yesterday was quite a bit cooler than expected.  So, I'm going to stick with that trend and call for only mid to upper 60s, and mostly sunny today.  Should drop to the upper 40s for dawn Tuesday, with a similiar afternoon as today.

Chance of rain begins after sunset Tuesday and kind of lasts through the work week.  That is one of the problems with these weak systems, they can spread out an lag, instead of dumping and moving.  Anyway, it looks likely we will see some light showery weather by Wednesday morning, along with some slightly cooler air.  Highs for the day will top out around the low to mid 60s.  And here is where things get tricky.  Due the storm weakening just as it comes upon us, it makes it harder for it to get swept out by the jet.  Think of it like a tennis ball.  When in one piece, your racket can send it swiftly to the other side of the court.  Now puncture it a bunch, or even tear it into pieces.  Not so easy to send very far or very swiftly any more.  And a lot less predictable.  A grey sky continues through the night and into Thursday, with the lingering threat of drizzle.  Daily highs stay about the same.  By Early Friday morning, another system increases our chance of rain.  A third arrives mid morning Saturday, and this one looks likely to be the strongest.  Chance for clearing on Sunday.  Confidence low, as the models keep changing on the details.  All told, we are looking at about a third to half an inch of rain during the period.

The pattern remains weakly progressive beyond, with some possible rain during the upcoming holiday week.  I'll keep updating for changes in the pattern this week, and looking at next week with eager eyes.  Next Wednesday is one of the busiest road days of the year, and we could be seeing it wet.  Best to make plans, leave early and roll slow.  More on this and turkey week later.

No comments:

Post a Comment