Sunday, November 9, 2014

Big Changes Afoot.

Seriously, what a difference a few days can make.  My son and I were feeling a little under the weather toward the end of last week, and feeling much better over the weekend, we spent much of it out of doors.  Saturday evening was simply gorgeous out along the cliffs of Wilder Ranch State Park.  The cormorants and the sea lions were doing their thing, as the setting sun did its thing.   And while things cooled off late in the day, we were strolling along in short pants and short sleeves.  Then a little fog filled in overnight.  By day break it was mostly out over the water, but you likely noticed it move ashore late this afternoon.  Well, that stuff is planning on sticking around for the next few days.  And that is going to keep things a bit cooler as well.  Oh, and there is a chance of rain later int he week.  Seriously, that there is a big change.  And the long term, which is at best unreliable, has a hose pointed at us for the week before Thanksgiving.  So yeah, big changes are afoot.

Autumn has arrived.

Okay, so Monday will begin with some thick fog.  And cool, with a low of about 50F.  While that fog should pull out to some degree during the day, it will only reveal a partly cloudy sky.  The afternoon high will top out in the mid to high 60s.  Veteran's day looks like a duplicate.  And while that fog should be gone for Wednesday, we still will be hanging in the 60s.  What is of most interest in this evening's posts is the small, weak, low pressure system that will be trying to squeeze under the high pressure to our north and over the high pressure to our south.  Could be this thing gets squeezed dry before coming ashore, but right now the models are suggesting that it will drop a little rain on Northern California as it speeds through.  We even have a decent chance of some light rain here, starting around Midnight on Wednesday and into the day on Thursday.  Best guess right now is for just about one tenth of an inch.  I will keep an eye on this one and report back here over the next few days.  Behind it is dryer, cooler air.  So Friday and next weekend look sunny and clear and crisp.  Lows dropping into the upper 40s and highs in the upper 60s.

Something else to note for this week is some building surf.  Tonight a small to moderate northwest swell is filling in.  Nothing large, just fun, 14 second period surf.  Right now extra tropical storm Nuri is in the Bearing Sea with a pressure of about 958mb, squeezed up against high pressure to its south, generating some solid winds and 40ft seas.  A few days ago the models were suggesting a historical kind of swell, but now it looks more like just some fun six foot long period swell that should generate some solid ten foot waves.  Enough to get the juices flowing.  Should arrive Wednesday and peak Thursday.  Will need to watch those winds, but likely sunset at the lighthouse will be a good show.

Now, let us talk about those long term models.  Yup, they totally suck.  But I thought a mention would be a good idea, because (according to them) about ten days out, and right through the turkey holiday weekend, we are going to be wet.  As in very wet.  As in multiple inches of liquid.  Not every damn day will be torrential, but like, pretty much.  Now, as I have noted, these models are about as good at prediction as an Ouija board is at contacting the dead.  Still, we have not seen something like this modeled in quite some time.  Like as in not since December of 2012.  So, yeah, you just might want to monitor this stuff as we get closer and start to wrap up, say, any roof jobs you got going.  Or really any thing that needs to be wrapped up before we get a run of heavy rains.  Anyway, nothing to worry about just yet, but check back often and don't get caught with your pants down.  

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