31.7F

Cold out there this morning.  Burlwood, near upper Granite Creek, in Scotts Valley is reading 31.7F.  Tie Gulch is about 35F.  Here in town it is 39F, at 7:45AM.  It is crisp out there this morning.  Dress warm.  Most locations are in the mid to upper 30s, with a few into the low 40s.  Not a cloud in the sky, so once that sun is up, things will warm a bit.

Nice Day.

Turned out to be a pretty nice day today.  Crisp.  A brief period of rain around 9:15 this morning, but other than that, dry.  And when I was up at 3AM today getting water from the sink, I noticed stars.  I checked the gauges this morning, and we only got 4/10th of an inch here on the Westside.  Love Creek got about 8/10th.  All in all, as expected, but when it was coming down hard last evening, I thought we'd end up with more.  It really did move swiftly. Anyway, cool out there now, in the upper 40s.  It was cool this morning, and did not hit 50F until 10:30.  Tomorrow will be much of the same, but will have more sunshine, and will, hence, feel warmer.

One more of last week's snow.  Covered Wagon was smooooth.

The next few nights will be cold, in the low 40s in town.  Some of the local inland hollows could see some freezing temps.  Tie Gulch was at 35F for a while this morning, and we had some cloud cover.  It will be more clear tonight, and colder.  More so Friday night.  Saturday bring us back into the 60s, and Sunday and Monday look warm even.  Still, upper 60s at best.  Then, as forecast, we hang in the mid 60s the rest of the week.  Overnight lows hang in the mid 40s.  This could go on for some time.

In other news, the ski resorts received from 8 to 18 inches of new snow, depending on elevation and location.  While this was not the much needed mega storm, parts of the upper mountains are starting to be much more in play.  Kirkwood and Rose have a good coating top to bottom, and at least the rest of the resorts now have some natural snow at the base. It should be a busy weekend up there.

Decent Start.

Forecast totals are up a bit today.  That is good news for the water collection.  And with these colds temps, we will continue to build a snow pack.  Two tenths of an inch so far on the Westside.  Half of that in the late afternoon.  The rest falling with this current burst.  Radar suggest we are in the midst of a cell.  It is dumping in the mountains and Love Creek is already at a half inch of rain.  This rain should taper well after mid night, and in fact, we might see our heaviest fall rates in the very early morning hours.  We could see a half inch here in town and more than double that in the local mountains.  The Sierra Crest is looking at up to a foot of snow on the highest peaks.  This is the main hit, and it is moving fast.  We will need to watch tomorrow to see how the showers fill in.  NOAA is calling for decreasing chances of rain throughout the day.  GFS keeps very light rain chances around through most of Thursday and into the night.  Either way, prepare for clouds and drizzle on Thursday.

Kirkwood was real fun last week.  Bombs away.

Friday will be a day of clearing.  I'd like to say warming, but it will be chilly, sticking around in the 50s.  We will see some warming and sunshine over the weekend.  Low 60s Saturday.  Upper 60s Sunday and Monday, then we moderate and hang in the mid 60s through the start of next week.

BTW, in the hour or so it too to write and post this, we already received almost another tenth of an inch of rain, so yeah, we should easily top a half inch.

A Bit More Coming

Walnut Street ended up with .28 inches yesterday.  Love Creek near Felton got seven tenths of an inch.  That is a pretty impressive total.  We got some rain showers here in town in the afternoon.  The Pogonip had water flowing.  Not bad for a light rain system.

Kirkwood.  Last Friday.

6PM GFS keeps the rain off until later afternoon, with the heaviest band moving through after night fall.  Then, it looks like rain clears out for the morning on Thursday, with light rain returning in the afternoon or evening.  So, like a one, two punch.  Or a one punch, and a tap.  Wednesday night we are looking at between a quarter and a half inch by Thursday morning.  The second round looks like only a drizzle, maybe a tenth of an inch, and finishing by midnight.  Friday will cool, but clear.

It is going to be cold during the storm as well.  It won't be so bad tomorrow morning, but we will hit our high in the upper 50s early in the day.  Then the cold front moves through.  We drop into the low 40s over night, but on Thursday, highs will be in the low 50s and cloudy.  And maybe drizzly.  It will feel cold.  A little warmer and with a bit more sun on Friday.  And then we will see high pressure begin to nose in.  Highs will move back into the mid 60s by Sunday.  Sun with clouds during the period.  And as of now, next week looks like seasonal and dry.  We could be headed into a prolonged dry period.

Quarter Inch.

Almost a quarter inch of rain so far this morning.  Hello.  I juts got back to the computer after a few days of checking out the snow.  Heavenly Valley did excellent, with a storm total of 19" on its eastern slopes.  Lake effect on Friday night did its thing for real.  North Lake resorts did decent, with about 10 inches.  Kirkwood came in with a weak 7", but I can tell you that it bonded like a dream.  In spots, you can feel the ice below at all.  Others, you can tell a bit.  But this cold snow did wonders for the resort skiing. And the backcountry has a full refresh.  They were forecasted to get a dusting to an inch last night, but this storm was slow coming in.  It would not be surprising if some locations along the crest end up with four inches or more today.  And it is cold.  Barely 50F at 9AM today.

Thin snow pack makes for gorgeous hiking.  Kirkwood in January, 2018.

This weather should clear out of here soon.  Clouds stick around into the afternoon.  Moderate breeze out there, starting to clock around from the south.  Cold tonight in the low 40s.  How cold will depend on how clear it gets.  Tuesday looks sunny and mild, with a high around 60F.  Another cool night Tuesday, and rain returns on Wednesday.  This storm looks wetter than the current or last week's.  Again, the bulk will be to our north, but we are looking at almost an inch of rain locally.  A bit less than that in town.  This storm will have a cold end to it.  Actually, compared to many storms this year, it will start cold.  High temps hang in the upper 50s into Friday.  It does look like we have a high pressure coming back our way into the weekend, with a little bit of warming.  More on that later.

Final Call.

Clouds tonight.  Not cold at all.  Low of about 50F.  Clouds are like a blanket.  We will probably not see a whole bunch of rain from this system, perhaps a half inch.  Likely it will start around mid day, but that is what the forecast said last time, and we had steady rain by sunrise.  Highs will be about 60F around town tomorrow.  We could see steady light rain in the afternoon, with better chances for moderate rain in the evening and through the night hours.  Temps in the mid 40s.  Rain is likely int the morning on Friday, but light.  And it will be cool. Mid 50s for a high temp.  Rain should taper off through the day, and by gone by midnight at the latest.  Like I said, this will be a light rain event for Santa Cruz.  But cold.  Friday night will see a low in the low 40s.  Clouds and some sun for Saturday.




The swell will be big Thursday.  A raw swell should hit and peak at 17'@17s in the morning.  Strong south west winds should make a good mess of it, but if you like wild sea spray, it should be a good day.  Swell will get knocked down a bunch for Friday, and it will be strong northwest winds.  Some surf in town.  Back to the weather, we should see some more rain arriving sometime on Sunday.  Best guess right now is for late Sunday.  Looks like this one will be bit further north, and little less wet for us.  Still, more rain.  And we are still tracking one for middle of next week.  Stay dry, puddle stomp, hike the redwoods.

Tuesday Update.

No real rain in town overnight.  High temp on Martin Luther King Jr. Day was 69.4F at Walnut and King.  It was a high 81.3F at noon on Sunday.  Currently, at 12:20, on Tuesday, it is 59.2F.  Notice a cooling trend?  No snow reported up in Tahoe.  Okay, I only checked Squaw and Kirkwood, but that is indicative.   There is still an outside chance for s snow flurry in the north.  But let us move on.

NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon.  This will be a start to a skiing base at lower elevations, but far from enough to make things start to go off.  Except at the highest elevations.  If you are biting at the bit to ski, but don't want to hit rocks, wait another week, as there are more storms on the way.

Sorry for the delayed post this of yesterday's forecast.  Need to work out the glitches.  Nothing more to add today.  I'll take a long look at this week's storm, and let you know the details in tomorrows post.  For now, think about prepping your yard and home for the coming rains.  While last night's storm was a complete bust, these next three look like they will brings some rain, and cold.  Snow levels could be down to 3000 feet on Friday, and then hang at less than 5000 feet into the storm on Sunday.  More rain likely to follow.

Just A Dusting.

Or a shower.  We have a moderate chance of some late rain late tonight, tapering into the morning hours on Tuesday.  About a tenth of an inch.  In fact, it might all just stay a tad to our north.  That is what brought some more clouds and much cooler temperatures out there today.  Still nice, but not epic.  The mild weather continues into Wednesday with our highs in the low 60s.  The big news is the changing weather.  Our next system is due to arrive on Thursday.  Still looking at timing, but we could see rain before the morning commute.  Not super heavy, or huge amounts, but we could add up to a half inch or more in town.  The models have already backed off a bit from their high of almost an inch.  Regardless, we see a good chance for rain during the day Thursday, especially in the afternoon.  It will be cooler, only reaching 60F on Thursday, and dropping to the mid 40s overnight.  Friday will be cold and possibly still wet.

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A high in the mid 50s on Friday means good things for the snow in the mountains.  Perhaps they get a dusting tonight on the high peaks.  By Friday afternoon, those same high peaks could see a foot and half of snow.  We could even see a little bit down as low as 3000 feet.  This will be our first cold storm of the year and very good news to the ski resorts.  The cold weather sticks around for the weekend. Highs will creep back up from Friday's, but not enough to hit the 60s.  Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s to low 40s.  Chilly for sure.  And it looks like we could have more rain by Sunday, with the GFS coming back in line for a storm into Monday.  And other round next Wednesday.  We will need to keep an eye on these in the coming days, as we might be entering an extended wet period.  Yay.

Gorgeous.

Just back from a morning hike through the Pogonip.  They have done some great trail work not too long ago.  Ohlone Trail is 90% re graded, and wonderful for up and down, as well as bringing you through some new areas.  The incline on Fern Trail is completely redone, and accesses a cool Douglas Fir zone.  Lookout Trail down to the Pogonip Loop has had a decent section re graded, and much improves the descent there.  This is related to the weather, just because it has been great hiking around there.  This morning I finally figured out it was shorts and t shirt weather here in January in Santa Cruz.  Again.  If you don't love it, don't worry.  Winter is coming.

Municipal Wharf.  Not today.

Monday night's storm is mostly going to be north of us.  Some rain possible into Tuesday morning.  We will get cooler.  Might see a tenth of an inch of rain.  As it stands now.  All models have been dryer today.  We could see that system dip south and bring a bit more.  Very light rain likely.  Chance for a bit more than that.  Clearing for Wednesday.  Temps remain in the low to mid 60s for the middle of the week.  Still looking at rain, and colder weather arriving on Thursday.  The runs today are looking a little more bullish.  We could get a decent storm.

Models disagree about the next storm up stream.  Some have a cold system arriving from the north next Sunday night.  Others have that stay north with a bigger trough approaching off the water, from the northwest in the middle of the week.  But pretty it looks like we will see the storm door opening.  It could stay that way through the end of the month, with several inches of rain dropping through the period.  Stay on top of the weather folks, because we are likely to see a big change from this high and dry and stupendous sunniness.  And it finally might even get cold.

Perfect Weather, Big Swell and More Rain.

In that order.  If you did not go outside today, you missed a wonderful day.  Try again tomorrow.  Juts about 70F during the afternoon.  Light winds.  And there is a decent moderate to moderate plus sized swell in the water.  Late Sunday we see some 22-23 second forerunners ahead of the next swell. It peaks Monday at 10'@18sec.  That will have some size.  Tuesday it bumps up to 14'@16sec. With the westerly direction, and afternoon low tides, West Cliff will see well overhead surf, with Middle Peak pushing 20 foot faces.  And even with some incoming weather, the wind is looking to remain mellow.  Let's get into that weather.Again, Sunday will be nice.  Monday will be as well.  Just not as warm.  Low to mid 60s.  Perhaps a few more clouds.  It looks like we will get some rain Monday into Tuesday.  I'll fine tune how much on Sunday.  Looks like maybe a quarter inch.  Low 60s Tuesday.

Things clear out by Wednesday, but we see some clouds stick around. Low 60s.  Thursday we see a larger, colder, wetter system move in.  It sticks around probably for 24 hours.  As of now, an inch of rain, or so.  Friday will be in the 50s.  Clearing, but more storms upstream.  Looks like the storm door is opening for Central California.  Be ready for a few weeks of wet weather, starting in a few days.

Over Three Inches.

9AM

It will be wet out there this morning, even though the rain has stopped and essentially moved out of our region.  At least the heavy rain.  Less than an additional tenth of an inch during the day.  We could see some showers today and into the evening, but they will be spread out and light.  We could see a few starts tonight.  Today will be cool, with temps staying in the 50s.  Tonight will be chilly, in the upper 40s.  Not cold, as some cloud cover remains.  We will see a change for the dryer and warmer on Wednesday.  There will still be a very slight chance for a passing shower, but by afternoon it should be all sun and in the lower 60s.  As the sky clears, we see lows drop into the mid 40s later in the week.  The flip side, is the highs drive up to the upper 60s, even 70F for late in the week and into the weekend.  By Sunday, temps begin to dip again, but will stay in the 60s.

We got a lot of rain.  Over three inches here on the west side of town.  Over seven inches in the local mountains.  Lots of water out there.  Draining.  Creeks and streams will be running quickly.  Puddles will be abundant.  More drizzle through today.  Cool.  But things improve tomorrow.

3PM

Looks like we could be done for the day, here in town.

Fire and Fury.

Well, not so much the fire.  This storm is producing.  1.85" here on the west side already and the storm has seemed to slowed its southerly progress, keeping us in the bullseye.  Dumping right now at the rate of two tenths of an inch per hour.  That is solid.  Even more solid is 2.3 inches in Scotts Valley.  And Love Creek in Felton coming in at 4.75 inches as of 8:45PM.  What didn't show up was the strong winds.  Sure, it is 25mph, gusting to 30mph out on the buoys, but nearshore and on land it has been pretty mild.  7mph on the wharf.  Out of the southwest.  Anyway, we are still looking at the bulk of this system being south of us by the morning commute. Remember, that is still nine hours away.  If we get a few more hours at this rate of rain, we will easily be over two inches in town and six inches in the mountains.  Still enough water to make Highway 17 a headache.  Leave early.  Allow time.  Still looking at clearing by mid day Tuesday, a nice Wednesday and clearing into the weekend. I still think we will hit 70F here in town.  Get ready for some puddle stomping tomorrow.

Check in tomorrow for rain and snow totals.  Yeah, some high elevation snow is happening.  As well as the look out for the coming week and a preview of next week's rain.

Quick Mid Storm Update.

Rain moved south quickly this morning, starting here well before sunrise.  It has been steady.  About a tenth of an inch an hour, with a stronger burst for about an hour starting at 9:20.  That maxed at a 1/4 inch per hour.  We passed the one inch mark before noon, and the gauge at Walnut and King is reading 1.12" as of 1:50PM.  Impressive.  And there is more to come.

Monarchs were brilliant before this rain.  Lighthouse Field.

Last night the models converged on keeping the heart of this storm just off shore, until it moves south of us.  Net result is less rain for the Sierra, and more for us.  I saw a model total last night of 2.7" in town.  I discounted it.  Now I wonder if we might hit that.  We still have a lot of storm to move through, but we might see precip rates drop, or at most stay steady.  All depends on how this cut off low moves.  Right now a pretty decent cell is hitting near Pescadero.  Anyway, expect another inch of rain this evening.

It now looks like things may taper off a bit earlier.  That could be good news for the morning commute.  I'll try to post up later with more details about rainfall amounts, and the days ahead.

A Solid Half Inch.

Rainfall totals were decent, but not overly impressive.  More along the lines as expected.  The west side of town received between a third and a half inch of rain.  Love Creek, near Felton received almost an inch.  Most rain tapered off just prior to midnight.  It was a pretty nice day out there.  Warm in the sun.  We found a few puddles on the Pogonip, but it was mostly dried out already.  That earth is thirsty.  Good thing we have more on the way.  And it still looks like a humdinger.

Kirkwood has coverage (barely) to the base.  The past few days I'm sure covered a few more rocks.

First, Sunday, a repeat of today.  Mild, with a good amount of sun.  Get out and enjoy.  Clouds move in late Sunday, and it will be warm Sunday night.  Wind will begin to whip up.  It looks like the rain will arrive after sunrise on Monday.  Light at first, but solid by mid day.  Wind increases through the day hours, with sustained winds over 3o mph from the south west.  Gusts could exceed 45mph.  This thing has some energy.  Rain will increase in intensity during the afternoon and we could see up to a half inch by sunset.  Then things get real.  Winds will back off a bit in the evening, but the deluge sets in and we could see almost two inches of rain overnight.  It will stay in the 50s overnight.

Tuesday will begin rainy.  While the heaviest rain will be moving south and east of us by sunrise, we can still expect moderate rains into late morning.  Things lighten up in the afternoon, but showers persist in the area into the evening.  About 60F.  Clouds break a bit, and temps will drop into the 40s Tuesday night.  Wednesday, and into the weekend still look nice.  Upper 60s to 70F by late in the week and into the holiday weekend.  Plenty of sun.

All said and down we are looking at over two inches of rain for Santa Cruz.  GFS is the wettest, but composites still have us wet.  Best guess right now is between 2.2 and 2.8 inches of rain.  And we should expect more in the hills.  Monday afternoon commute will be rough.  Especially will all the holiday folks returning to work.  Tuesday morning will be even worse.  Expect some delays.  Be prepared, slow down, drive like your not an ass, and it should all work out okay.

Trending Wetter.

If you can believe the GFS, things are going to get a bit wetter tonight.  Its the outsider, but is I like the sound of it.  This day's rain performed well, with a third of an inch already.  It was light and consistent.  Perfect for a walk through the Pogonip to rehab an ankle, stomp some puddles and count the banana slugs.  Eleven, I believe.  We had a break in the late afternoon and early evening, but rain has moved back in.  Radar looks denser than it did this morning, so I suspect we have more rain on the way tonight.  Let's see where we end up, but I'd suspect we will hit at least four tenths an inch.  Would not be terribly surprised if we ended up with two thirds.  But the system has lots of holes in it, so it depends just where those showers form.  By morning we should see some clearing.  Low 50s tonight.  Some high elevation snow overnight; mostly above 8000 feet.

The duck dive, the look, the ignore, the scratch, the wonder, a guy banking it off solid and the staircase.  Steamer Lane.

This system is pretty warm.  It might feel muggy mid day tomorrow as the humidity drops and the sun warms us.  Mid 60s, and a pretty decent afternoon.  Sunday will be a little less cloudy and and slightly less warm.  Still very nice.  Enjoy the weekend.  It will be a break.  Try to remember last winter when we had to be prepared to take advantage of a day that was not a raging storm.  Embrace that this weekend.  The next storm is upstream and headed our way Monday.  Again, the GFS is bullish on this one.  Let's go with that.  It will be pretty warm to start, with the low on Sunday night in the mid 50s.  The day will warm to about 60F, with rain likely arriving well before mid day.  Fine tuning as we get closer.  Between noon Monday and Tuesday we could see several inches fall in town.  Most of that falling after midnight, so expect a nasty Tuesday morning commute.  Again, fine tuning as we get closer.  Even though other models are drier, none expect less than an inch of rain during the 24 hour period of heaviest precipitation.  Overnight it will drop to the low 50s, warming again to about 60F on Tuesday.  Rain backs off in the afternoon, and colder air moves in.  Lows will drop into the mid 40s Tuesday night.

Looks like sunshine and warm days to follow.  Mid 60s Wednesday.  Low 40s Wednesday night.  Then we begin to warm, with 70F not out of the question to start the holiday weekend.  Mornings will be crisp into the weekend.  Some nice winter weather.  And remember what I said about enjoying the breaks.  Do it again late next week and weekend, because the fantasy range GFS has over 5 inches of rain in Santa Cruz by the 20th.  Could be just what the doctor ordered, but would mean the storm door is going to be open.  Get geared up and get out there and stomp some puddles.  The season has begun.  Enjoy.

Well, It Rains.

Hello.  I apologize for the lapse over the holiday.  We escaped to Kirkwood.  Made Pho as the family skied.  Hiked a bit and relaxed.  The next day returned to the ski boot.  Made a few runs.  A few more the next day.  The following I was finally able to hang with my kid and make some laps.  Felt good.  Snow is thin, but totally manageable.  Nice groomer skiing.  Given the healing ankle, I did not venture much off piste, but many areas looked fun.  And others hellish.  But the skiing was fun given the incredibly slow start to the snow season.  Kirkwood does have that high elevation base advantage right now.  Last night they received two inches.   In fact, snow fell down as low as 7000 feet.  It was much cooler than expected.  The snow lovers rejoice.  Every inch is needed at this point.  Luckily, it looks like more is on the way.  The west side saw at least a half inch of rain last night.  Had I posted a forecast, it would have been for a quarter inch.  So this storm much exceeded expectations.  A good trend.  Looks like more rain is on the way.

Surf has been fun.  More to come.  I might even get back out soon.  Kind of got clearance.

It was in the low to mid 60s today.  A heavy fog set in late in the day.  More rain could come tonight into tomorrow. A little cooler tonight with lows dropping into the 40s.  We could see a few tenths of an inch, perhaps up to a half inch through the day Friday.  Nothing drastic.  Nor the winds.  In fact today was quite calm.  Southerly winds perhaps up to 15 MPH.  Low 60s on Friday.  Then some clearing, into the weekend.  Friday night we could see some rain, but the bulk of the system will be to our east.  Mild temps persist over the weekend, but we will see some sun.  By Monday we are looking at another, larger, wetter, colder storm.

As it looks now, we could see rain move ashore around mid day.  Fiercely.  Strong winds and heavy rains.  The storm should flesh out into a full on rage Tuesday morning, mellowing little through the day.  By Wednesday morning, much of the action will be south or east of us.  It looks like a inch of rain in town, with more in the mountains.   Clearing through Thursday an through at least MLK Day.  As it stands now.  With more storms that following week.  Perhaps winter might show up after all.