Thursday, January 17, 2019

Spot On.

We received a total of one inch of rain yesterday and are standing at .79 inches today.  That puts us 1.2 inch since yesterday's post.  We may still see some more rain this evening, but chances are dwindling.  This morning's rain sure out performed expectations today, but last night under produced.  But overall, we are spot on. It is difficult to find the exact timing go the intense bands.  I can see stars outside, but there is still another band just south of us that may produce some more showers. The winds are down.  This afternoon the wind at Long Marine Lab was 13 mph.  A far cry from last nights breezy condition.

The high pressure filling in is pretty weak.  A storm is going to just miss us to our north tomorrow.  Perhaps more clouds than previously thought.  Maybe a hair cooler.  The surf is up.  In fact, it is XXL style.  I was able to see third reef Middle Peak break from my house today.  I live just off Escalona Drive, so a mile from the water and not really up the hill.  My view is not of near shore, but open ocean.  Typically.  Winds are turning easterly to south easterly overnight and Friday, perhaps cleaning things up a bit.  If you are thinking of venturing out, be sure you know what your are doing.  In general, stay away from the edge of cliffs and be ware of cresting and crashing waves as they hit the rocks.

We still see a chance for light rain Sunday.  Chances have increased, but still expecting less than a tenth inch in town.  Cooler air mass arrives Monday.  Sunnier and calmer weather.  So lows drop into the low 40s and highs rise in to the low 60s.  Next chance of series rain looks like it will be in February. So, after this weekend, we will be taking the tally and see how it stacks up to average.

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

It's Here.

Well, that should be obvious.  We have an initial band of the storm move through earlier today, giving us rain off and on from about 11AM until 3PM, or so.  We got a 1/4 inch on the westside.  Enough that the Pogonip had rivets and pools of water and muck all over the place.  Kind of magical, that place in the rain.  Then we saw a break, and decent conditions for the afternoon commute.  Unfortunately, some mud slid on 17, backing things up a bit after 4PM.  Its open now, but southbound lanes were closed for a few minutes, but opened soon after.  Could have been worse.  Let's see what happens tonight.  On the radar, this thing looks solid.  Listening to things getting tossed around my deck right now only supports that thesis.  Looking at the gauge, we received .35 inches of rain in the past hour and twenty minutes.  That is some steady rain.

Winds are steady 35 mph out of the south at Long Marine Lab.  Those picked up around 2PM today, but have been gusting the last few hours.  A 50mph gust was recorded around 7:30 this evening.  That is some wind.  We will likely see another half inch or more by sunrise Thursday.  It looks like the worst of this second band is now east of us, but another band is already beginning to show on radar.  We are forecast to see both rain and wind settle a bit after midnight tonight, but we should still see steady rain through the morning hours.  That commute is going to be hairy.  As the morning wears on, we will see the winds and rain become less severe.  Overnight we will see periods of heavy and moderate rain, with perhaps a few breaks.  The rain becomes more sporadic on Thursday.

We could still see some rain in the evening on Thursday, but rain should cease before midnight.  All told, about an inch to inch and half more rain by Friday morning.  While the afternoon commute Thursday won't be as stormy as the morning, we could still see some residual effects.  Friday morning could also see some mud sliding about.  But we will see some sun on Friday.  That will be awesome.

Still looking at a storm brushing us from the north on Sunday for a chance of light showers.  Then we are looking at 10 plus days of fine winter weather.  Sunshine, and light winds.  Hopefully that swell will still be pumping.  Right now the ocean looks brutal.





Tuesday, January 15, 2019

Wow.

Tuesday's system is way over producing.  Even this morning's models were suggesting no more than an inch of rain for today.  As of 6PM, we are at 2.39 inches of rain on the westside.  I doubled checked everything this morning, when we were at a quarter inch of rain as of 7AM this morning.  But, wow.  The rain was really coming down between 2PM and 3:30PM today.  King Street was swamped.  All my drains were rushing.  Felt like a real winter storm.  Things have slowed down, but it is still raining.  Not surprised by that nearly as much as the amounts.  This will catapult us up to average for the month and get us close to average for the water year.  Good stuff.

The heaviest precipitations now to our east.  The wind is still blowing out there.  Picking up in town.  The yacht harbor is blowing from the SSW at 29mph, gusting to 40mph over the last few hours.  The Monterey Bay Buoy has been dropping from over the last few hours from 34mph down to 22mph.  Anyway, still breezy.  Should subside overnight, and we could have a pleasant enough morning on Wednesday.  It will still be a bit breezy, even early.  Still, before 10am, it could be not raining, and not too windy.  By afternoon, it becomes likely we will have some showers, developing into heavy rain by nightfall.  Winds become gusty, and heavy rain develops in possible thunderstorms. Yeah, this one is going to be active.

Overall, the total rain forecast for the next two days is in the two to three inch range.  A lot of that will depend on positioning of the storm when the center moves through just to our north.  The bulk of that rain will come through in the dark, Wednesday night, through Thursday morning.  The morning commute on Wednesday does not look too bad.  In fact, the afternoon commute might not be terrible tomorrow, as long as you get out ahead of the storm.  While the worse of the storm will be over before the Thursday morning commute, the result of an inch or more of rain over night will be evident.  By the afternoon, things will have subsided significantly, but still expect slow traffic and back ups.  Friday will feel like bliss.  As long as the road is still there.

So, a break (it seems like it is already here tonight) into mid day tomorrow, and then a quick and wet one into Thursday.  Clearing for Friday.  Man, Friday and Saturday are looking great right now.

Monday, January 14, 2019

As Expected.

The week ramps up.  Looks like we will see some heavier rain on Tuesday, and then lighter Tuesday night.  We could see over an inch, maybe even two on Wednesday.  That afternoon commute is going to be a killer.  Leave early or leave late.  Moderate to heavy rain overnight on Wednesday and into mid day on Thursday.  The storm looks like it will be a faster mover, so clearing out by Thursday afternoon.  Possibly.  That morning commute will be pretty rough, and we will still have wet roads come afternoon.  Use caution, and give yourself plenty of time to get where you need to go safely.

We received a little less than a 1/10 inch on Monday.  There were some periods of showers, but nothing prolonged. The last system is inland in Socal and already moved into southern Nevada and Arizona.  The desert is getting some rain.  Next system is just offshore, and this one is going to do a better job of moving rain over us.  Rain fills in overnight and Tuesday will be fairly rainy.  We are looking at perhaps a half inch of rain before a slight break Tuesday night.  The big storm for the week arrives here on the coast Wednesday.  Rain will be heavy at times on Wednesday and ramp up in the afternoon and evening.  We could see an inch or even two from Wednesday morning into Thursday afternoon.  After that, the storm tapers quickly and moves through to our east. We could see some showers Thursday night, but things back off quickly.  A very slight chance of showers early Friday, with sun by mid day.  Saturday looks like the best day of the week, with sun and high of about 60F.

We could see one more storm.  It looks like it won't make it here until Sunday.  And it may stay to our north.  But for now, we have a chance of rain coming Sunday or Martin Luther King Day.  Kind of bummed, as I was hoping to be in the fields that day.  But that is still almost a week out, so don't count on poor weather just yet.

We are looking at a possibility of 2.5 inches or more of rain over the next few days.  This is not armageddon levels of rain, but it is significant.  I was out in the Pogonip today, and the ground is certainly saturated.  Creeks are flowing.  We could see some minor flooding occur mid to late on Thursday.  Luckily, just when things would be looking to get bad, the rain should stop.  Still, be prepared. Not a bad idea to check on candles and flashlights.

As for the snow, the Sierra is looking at 4 to 6 inches of precipitation over the next several days.  Four to five feet of snow is expected above 8000 feet, mainly falling from Wednesday night through Friday morning. It is going to be a busy holiday weekend up in the mountains.  Lots of people are going to be heading up on Friday.  Please drive respectfully.  And schuss respectfully as well.  And be smart.  Stay in open areas, do not duck ropes and always have a buddy for skiing off piste.  If you avi gear, and ski a resort with avalanche prone areas, where the beacon.  Carry a shovel and probe to help in a rescue.  Have fun, but play smart.