Tuesday, February 21, 2017

That's So Cool.

Currently 45F out at 8:45PM.  That is the coolest evening temp we have seen in a while.  Snow is still falling in the Sierra, and freezing level is dropping to 5000 feet or lower tonight.  Clouds are above my house, and today we received moderate rain.  Around noon we had a quick downpour, and it seemed like we were going to get a deluge.  My faithful gauge in Scotts Valley recorded a quick bout of rain around 6AM.  Together with the mid day squall, and a short minimal burst around 7PM, we are looking at a half inch total.  That puts this particular location at near 25 inches for the month, or over an inch a day.  I recall writing something like this in January.

We still have a chance for rain tonight, but it is not likely and not more than a tenth of an inch.  Tomorrow we will see clouds and sun, and it will be cool in the mid 50s.  Temps drop into the upper 30s for the first time in a while tomorrow night as the sky becomes mostly clear.  It will be crisp come Thursday morning.  The day will be even cooler, and the night even colder.  We could see temps drop down to 32F just a mile or two inland.  Town will bottom out around 35F.  Friday is more of the same, but not quite as cold.  Clouds return sometime on Friday night and we are looking at the chance for another storm Saturday through Monday.  Models are not agreeing on a solution for this period, but it looks likely we will at least get some rain during that period.

At least it looks sunny for a few days after that.  At least it does now.  A few days ago I though this coming weekend looked clear. We need some time to dry out.  The water year is near record breaking.  The ground is very wet.  The roads are sliding away.  We need a break.

Monday, February 20, 2017

Holee Sheets.

This is the storm.  The calm is now gone.  Rain started as expected, with just over an inch by sunrise.  Then it mellowed a bit with with just over an inch and a half by noon.  As we approach sunset, we near two inches for the day.  But is is jamming out there right now.  We lost another section of roofing this afternoon as those winds whipped up.  I wish we had a wind gauge, as we are on a south facing slope and exposed to the southwest wind.  I'm pretty sure it was whipping though here with gusts over 45mph.  The gauges down on King Street were clocking gusts up to 28mph.  The Harbor is currently clocking 35mph.  Long Marine Lab is at 34mph, but had a gust of 60mph around 4:45.  Even more impressive was an 80mph gust at 5Pm in Panoche, in souther San Benito County.

A redwood tree fell across all four lanes of Highway 17 this afternoon.  The San Joaquin River was expected to exceed flood levels today.  Oroville is maintaining itself, but the spillway continues to erode.  In flow is expected to exceed out flow by about now, so we will need to see how that goes.  This rainfall right now is pretty warm, so that is not good.  Tonight will be interesting across the region.  Plenty of wind, but we have likely at the peak of it right now.  It will mellow a bit overnight, but still be strong tomorrow.  GFS if forecasting several more inches overnight.  Radar is full right now.  It feels like it is raining pretty hard.  Still, the main AR is shifting south, so we might not sustain.  The rain will back off quite a bit tomorrow.  But plan for some rain, at least through the morning.

Sunday, February 19, 2017

Quiet before the storm.

It has been a mellow day.  About two tenths of an inch of rain.  Not really all that much.  In fact, it was a good day to spend outside.  Monday is a holiday.  Which is good.  It will keep many commuters off the road.  Rain showery weather continues this evening and then around midnight we get slammed.  Strong winds will be blowing by morning, with gusts up to 40mph forecasted in town.  I lost some of my deck roofing during the last system.  I'll need to see how my patch work holds up.  That rain I mentioned will be heavy.  We have over four inches forecasted by night fall on Monday.  I think the GFS is coming in a bit strong, but it has us right in the bullseye.  Be ready for some major flooding Monday.  Today's very light rain was running all over town, and pooling up.  Now imagine twenty times that much.  Or more.  Things are going to get real (as if they have not been real enough).  Sure glad right now that I live in town, and hope for the best for those in the hills.

Monday will be very stormy, with strong winds, and very heavy rains.  We are forecast to get over one inch per six hour period from midnight tonight until midnight tomorrow.  The strong rains start to back off in the very early morning hours Tuesday.  BTW, temps are forecasted in the low 60s Monday, and upper 50s Tuesday.  Moderate rains continue through the early part of the day Tuesday, then back off to more showery weather.  The real storms pass.  Wind will be lighter on Tuesday, around 15 mph.  Rains break by night fall.  Wednesday morning will likely still have clouds, but just as likely not have rain.  Cooler day, in the mid 50s, with one more system moving in mid day.  Good news is this one is pretty mellow.  Much less water (as in like maybe a half inch) and much less wind.

Sun comes back out Thursday and cooler air settles in with daytime highs in the mid 50s and overnight lows in the low 40s.  Not December cold, but cold.  The GFS has gotten pretty bullish with a Friday afternoon to Saturday night storm.  Will need to watch that.  In fact, it suggest wet wether through the following Tuesday (Feb 28th).  These are new developments.  Clear after that through the fifth of March.  Then more water.  Seriously.  Can't make this stuff up.

Saturday, February 18, 2017

Over Produced.

Crazy storm.  We had lots of wind.  I lost portions of my deck corrugated fiberglass roof.  Lots of rain.  Yesterday came in how Thursday was expected.  Rain was slow to start in the morning.  We just had tremendous winds.  I was watching the eucalyptus grove across the way, expect things to drop.  Then just before noon the deluge began.  Rain fell at a steady pace, well past night fall, and we ended up exceeding that one to two inch forecast with a total of 3.09 inches by midnight.  In the early morning we received another .41 inches, for a total of 3.5 inches with the storm.  That exceeds the one to two forecasts by NOAA.

February has been a wet month.  18.7 inches so far, and we still have several big water events on the horizon.  This water year is currently the wettest to date, and if we continue along this trajectory, it will be record breaking by magnitudes.  Climate is certainly changing in the state, with our longest recorded drought period followed by at least an above average, if not record breaking year.  Seems like our state is going to have to figure out better water management and retention systems.

Looking at the models there is still hope for some sun breaking out late in the day today.  Showery weather should stick around, with several tenth of an inch possible.  Right now it looks like Sunday morning will be pleasant, with perhaps some winter sun.  Clouds deepen through the day, and we could have a rainy afternoon, although it looks on the lighter side.  The real rain arrives overnight, and by midnight or soon after, we will see very heavy rains.  This is another AR event, aimed just to our north.  We could easily see several more inches from late Sunday through early Tuesday.  Winds are again expected to be quite strong.  From Tuesday on, things are starting to look much better.  It is not like the rain will completely stop, but it will not be quite so strong.

In fact, Tuesday, we could be experiencing a little break between systems.  Maybe some light showers.  Maybe some sunshine.  Another wave moves in Tuesday night and lasts through much of the day Wednesday.  This one is still significant, but much less dramatic, less windy, and less wet than Monday.  Showers Thursday morning, and then some magical clearing.  Current model runs keep us dry through the following weekend, or ten days.  Imagine that