Friday, December 2, 2016

Cool Week, Mild Weekend.

It has been chilly.  Cold even.  My padrons are happy enough in their quickly erected plastic sheeting green house, but even the mid day has been chilly.  If you are out of the sun, is is cold even.  It dropped down to 38F around 2AM this morning, but it is already 44F.  Yesterday, in fact, hit 70F on King Street, for about 20 minutes.  Never did it feel that warm; that thermometer must be in the sun  More of the same today.  Mid 60s, cooler in the shade and warmer in the sun.

We see a little warming over the weekend, then another cold dry system hits us early next week.  Not much daytime warming, but the nights will only drop to the mid 40s.  Then on Tuesday, high temps stay squarely in the mid 50s.  Very slight chance for very light rain, as this system moves east of us.  Very slight.  We see a better chance for rain next Thursday, but we are over a week out right now.

It looks like we could be headed into a prolonged dry stretch.  This last round of rain had not impact on the drought, so we are still in a pretty dire situation state wide.  Continue to conserve.  I'll post up more when I have a better look at next week.  Pray for rain.  In the meantime, get out side, get some exercise, work in the yard, cut down a tree.  This is great weather to exert yourself and not sweat too much.  Oh, and the sun rises and sun sets have been stunning.

Monday, November 28, 2016

Locally Wet.

The weekend system performed well as a rain maker.  Prior to this morning's showers, we received 1.2" of rain at King/Walnut.  Lompico (Santa Cruz Mountains) received less than us Saturday and more than us Sunday, for a total of 1.3" of water.  Not that two points of data are enough, but this one may have spread evenly across the region.  As we head into next week, I'll look across the state to see how we did with water.  I fear not nearly enough, as there is not another system expected in the near term.

The current showers are barely readable on radar, and the bulk of the cell is to our north.  Nothing like the yellow and orange blobs that hit us on Saturday.  We were inside for the first wave, but then escaped to the cover of the Pogonip for the second one.  What a great place to be out in the storm.  Anyway, this morning's showers are from a system that moved ashore NorCal last night, and pushed south over land.  We are on the southern tail of it.  There could be sporadic showers, especially in the mountains.  A few inches for the Sierra Crest.  Then things clear up and we get some high pressure trying to nose in.  This will keep it mostly clear, but breezy as well.  And chilly.

The good news about the high not getting fully established, and calm conditions setting up, and warming promoted by atmospheric conditions is that it will be less work for a low to break it down when they do decided to return to the NorPac.

Here is the skinny.  Chance for showers across the region and pushing to our south through Tuesday night.  But more likely to see clearing and sun.  By Wednesday, it will certainly be more sunny than cloudy.  And that lasting through the week.  Strong NW winds early in the week, turning more northerly toward the end of the work week.  Upwelling will significantly cool the ocean water this week.  Cool days on the upper 50s and lower 60s.  Cold nights in the mid to low 40s, dropping into the upper 30s later in the week.  Protect our plants from frost.  Keep them well watered (thanks ma-nature) and throw a cover on them.  Or pack them in hay.  Speaking of which, I've gotta deal with my beans this week.

In the fantasy charts there are more storms.  The cold later in our week if from a storm dropping south to our east.  It is not like we are seeing a huge block.  Just a small one.  Winter is coming.

Saturday, November 26, 2016

Strong Start.

Wet this morning.  Rain began at just after 5AM and fell in ernest.  Nearly three fourths of an inch her on the west side as of 8AM.  That is a quarter inch an hour, which is a steady rate of rainfall.  If it had been wetter earlier this week, we would be looking at the likelihood of flash flooding in areas.  As it is, much of this water will be absorbed into the earth this morning.  Assuming the rain tapers soon, as is expected.  Looking at the radar, we are in a solid squall right now, with the heart of it hitting the peninsula just south of the city.  Hard to tell how long it will last.  I can see the back end of the cell on the radar, but the radar barely reaches off shore, so it is hard to tell what is lined up behind.  The infrared and water vapor suggest that things might taper by 11AM.

This morning there are south winds and they are expected to shift west by afternoon.  We might see some breaks in the clouds and likely will see a break in the rain by this afternoon.  Still, it is hard to tell, as the core of the system is shifting south just a short bit off shore.  If this thing gets a little closer than forecast (and it sure feels that way now) we could see moderate to heavy rain to last through the afternoon.  As this system all shifts further south on Sunday, we will see lighter rainfall and clearing. Over all, we should see between an inch and an inch and a half in town.  Temps will remain in the 50s over the weekend, but should climb back into the 60s next week.

Chances for rainfall linger into Monday morning.  Anything still around by then will be light in nature.  Up in the Sierra, we are expecting a foot plus of snow over the next two nights.  On the high end of the forecast, that plus is pretty significant.  This is going to be a good storm to get a little more terrain open.  And we need it as the next two weeks looks dry.

The work week ahead looks much like the holiday week behind.  The sun comes out Monday afternoon and the sky remains mostly clear through the rest of the work week.  Overnight lows will low 40s and the afternoon highs in the low 60s.  It is crisp, cool, wintery weather.  If you still have summer garden plants going (I've got my padron peppers, a cherry tomato and some pole beans) you may want to look into plastic covers or other ways to keep them warm out night.  And during the day.

Thursday, November 24, 2016


Very crisp this and the past few mornings.  Upper 30s to low 40s on the west side.  This morning I can see frost of on the roofs of unheated portions of homes.  Attics and sheds and such.  Up in the Sierra, it is cold enough to keep the snow making machines rolling.  Combine with some natural snow, Kirkwood opens up on Black Friday.  Red Dog is scheduled to be open at Squaw today.  Other resorts are opening up.  It looks like ski season has begun.

Thanksgiving will be pleasant in Santa Cruz.  Sunny, with a high in the low 60s.  That sun will feel great while it is out.  By Friday we will be moving back towards wet weather.  Clouds fill in mid day Friday, with rain likely by night fall.  Chances for rain increase overnight.  There could be copious and heavy rain overnight.  Could be.  Depends which model you prefer.  The GFS is forecasting that most rain holds off until mid day on Saturday.  Regardless of what the solution is, expect a good rain sometime on Saturday.  And a second burst on Sunday.

My current thinking is awesome Thanksgiving weather, with some moderate afternoon NW wind.  Clouds increasing on Friday with some showers overnight.  While the storm will bring colder air, overnight lows will increase to the upper 40s with the cloud cover.  Daytime highs will linger in the upper 50s over the weekend.  Rain will fall in the early morning hours Saturday and into mid day.  Another round will come through in the evening hours, and then a second storm system on Sunday.  Expect the entire weekend to be a rainy period.  Probably a good idea to head to the snow.

Storms clear out by Sunday evening and we return to a partly cloudy sky on Monday and some slight warming.  Kind of back to where we are with low 40s overnight and low 60s in the afternoon.

Oh, and there is some surf out there this morning.  Get sum, then eat a bird.