Thursday, November 16, 2017

Southern Side of AR.

This morning the southern side of the AR has shifted over our town.  Not that much rain recorded yet on the west side.  A few tenths of an inch.  Less than a quarter inch as of 9:30 this morning.  Almost two inches in parts of the Santa Cruz Mountains.  Areas north of us have also seen a fair amount of rain so far, with Daly City and San Francisco reporting over an inch or rain since midnight.  And they had nearly a third of an inch yesterday, compared to our several hundredths of an inch.  Misty out there, as I type.  There is still a good push of rain to come, as the main stream of the AR pushes over us later this afternoon.  Thing is, as it pushes over us, the feed also dies off.  But we will still get a good rainfall from the combination with the storm pushing it south.  So yeah.  More rain, and wind today.  In fact, through Friday noon, the GFS puts a bullseye of over three inches in the mountains out our backdoor.  That is a lot more rain to come.

Expect rain to get heavy as the day wears on.  Late in the afternoon and early evening still looks like the heaviest period.  New to the forecast is rain sticking around a bit more after midnight, so it looks like your Friday morning commute could still be a wet one.  With several inches of water haven fallen in the past day.

I'll update this page later today with now cast for the storm.  Love watching this thing from my window.  I can see the clouds streaming across the sky.  I love getting a slight glimpse of Monterey before clouds shroud it again.

9PM UPDATE:  Gonna be quick.  AR is now gone, and essentially would be south of us.  It will pump in some rain to Big Sur, but this system is winding down quick.  We could still see some showers overnight, but those look rare.  Temps are still in the upper 50s, so it is warm.  We got almost an inch here on the Westside, 1.45" in SF, and in the Santa Cruz Mountains, at Love Creek, the gauge busted at 2.38" at 10AM.  So we can assume more rain fell there later in the day.

Expect sun tomorrow.  Maybe even by morning.  Warming trend.  Could be fine weather for the holiday week, with even 70F possible.

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Upping The Game!

Well, GFS this morning has really pumped up the rain totals forecast for this 36 hour storm coming our way.  It also keeps the vast amount of rain to our north.  But not that far.  The coastal bullseye in in SF with five inches of rain by midnight Friday.  Seven inches in the northern Sierra.  Let's lay out the current time line as per the current run of the GFS.  Rain arrives after midnight tonight.  Less than a quarter inch by 6AM; so light rain.  But not for long.  The beast arrives mid to late morning and with a fury.  And it lasts all day.  We could see several inches here in town.  It will be a windy, rainy day.  Oh, and the wind.  That should start whipping up out of the south this evening.  It will be breezy overnight and tomorrow.  The rain may be hardest around sunset tomorrow, as the AR center moves from north of us, to south of us.  This will shift that wind to northerly and bring cooler air.  This will be the onset for snow at pass levels and below.  Rain should shift south of us by midnight.  Friday looks sunny.

So, again, a rainy and very windy day Thursday.  Yesterday I warned about the morning commute.  Now it seems it will be the afternoon commute that is worrisome.  If we get those several inches in town, or anywhere near that amount, in town, it will be even wetter over the hill.  All that water hitting pavement needs to run some where.  At least we've had a few rain storms to lift some of that oil.  Still, expect accidents and delays coming home Thursday.  Plan for it, and you won't be a part of it.

This is a quick moving, very wet system.  I was going to say fierce, but it is not that fierce.  Just a solid amount of water.  Be prepared.  It will be fun to watch from here.

Low 60s climbing to mid 60s through the weekend.  Even warmer next week.  Chance for rain still around Monday and Tuesday.  More on that storm on Friday.  For now, we are watching the weather.

Edit to add:  Oh, yeah, we will get a few burst of showers this afternoon and evening.  In fact I've noticed three, but nothing measured yet.

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

It is Gonna Rain - For Reals

Another very nice day on the record books.  Tomorrow will be different.  Rain is likely by evening, and definite after midnight.  The main AR stream will be to our north when this thing hits, and it will then shift south.  The heaviest rain may be for a brief Several hours in our region, but the entire rain event likely will last over 30 hours.  Rain pushes hard ashore from the south west Wednesday afternoon.  It will be a hose for norcal.  Overnight and into mid day Thursday, there will be a ton of rain to our north.  Here in Santa Cruz, we could see over an inch of rain by late morning Thursday.  Maybe even two.  This will make the Thursday morning commute a real headache.  Be prepared if you are headed over the hills.  And we will get a first glimpse of how our new hydrology management systems will perform over the winter.  But don't worry too much.  This is not January 2017.  That was for reals for reals.

The heaviest rain will have shifted south by mid day Thursday, and the AR seems to turn down.  We could still see upwards of a half inch of rain Thursday afternoon, so don't put away those rain coats.  Showers abate Thursday overnight, but we could still see some light showery weather on Friday morning as the storm center shifts well east.  But it will be essentially a sunny day.  The back end of the storm has slightly cooler weather in store, but it rebounds nicely to the mid 60s by Saturday.  Ahead of the next system.  As it stands now, it looks like it will be a fine sunny start to Sunday, with just enough evening clouds to make that sunset pop.  Rain fills in overnight and looks quite heavy on Monday.  NorCal getting a lot of of wide spread rain, with moderate amounts to the south.  Early forecast for an inch or so of rain.  Still a fair amount, but nothing compared to the five plus inches to our north.  Stay tuned for this one.

As for snow, still a question how and when the moisture falls and what to temps will be.  No big change in that forecast.  1-2 feet at 7000 feet, with three or more above 9K.  It is looking a little warmer mid storm this morning, so we will need to see how it all falls.  The real snow concern will be this next storm. It looks real warm, without much of a cold component.  With some luck, another, third, but small system, will lay a fresh few inches for the holiday week skiers.  I don't care.  I've still a month plus before I can wear a ski boot.

Monday, November 13, 2017

Nothing New, Ultimately.

Ultimately.  Pretty nice out there today.  The morning's clouds and light precipitation has burned off to sunshine.  Mild.  NOAA still calling for showers likely today.  Dwindling overnight.  I still think it is mostly likely to shower after sunset.  Just a bit.  A tenth of an inch or so.  And more sunshine again tomorrow.  There is still a lot of variables to the storm coming later this week, but everyone one is inline for a solid rain storm starting Wednesday.  This could be the first big storm of the winter.

The GFS has things coming in fast and furious.  The Euro holds the worst of the storm off until later in the evening into Thursday morning.  Regardless, rain starts on Wednesday as early as late morning, continuing through the day on Thursday.  It will be warm at the start, in the mid to upper 60s.  A high elevation cold front moves through early Thursday, but it will stay quite warm on the coast.  Low to mid 50s.  Thursday will be cooler, with a high of about 60F.  This should be just cold enough for some high elevation snow.  But first, our rain.  I'm seeing it hold off a bit.  Wednesday could be quite pleasant.  Rain impacting us from the north to south after sunset.  Light until midnight or so, then it gets heavy.  We will likely see an inch or more here in town by noon on Thursday, with significant amounts forecast in the Santa Cruz Mountains.  The bulk of the storm will move south by mid day, leaving us will light showers for the afternoon.  And cooler weather.  Rain and mid to high elevation snow continues in the Sierra into Friday morning.  

Sunny and low 60s for Friday and Saturday.  We could see a return to rain on Sunday.  Regardless, it will be warm, with temps in the mid 60s.  We will need to watch this system for next week.  Either warm southerly storm or a protective high pressure.  We will need to see.

So, snowfall.  There are better outlets for detailed snow forecasts, but here is the jist of it.  Snow starts above 9000 feet on Wednesday, lowering to 8000 feet through the day.  Overnight it cools further, dropping snow levels to about 7000 feet Thursday morning, and further to 6000 feet as the cold front moves through.  All in all, we could see several inches at lake level by Friday morning, with up to four feet above 9000 feet.  What falls in between will be determined by when the most rain falls, and at what temperature.  All in all, we could see over 5 inches of precipitation on the crest.

Welcome to fall and get ready for winter folks.