Monday, December 11, 2017

Cooler Tomorrow.

Today was nice.  A thermometer here on the westside hit 80F right around two PM for ten minutes.  It hit 73.8F at noon and was above that through 4:08PM.  Like I said, a nice day.  Surf showed up smaller than expected.  It looked about shoulder to head hight at the Lane, with a bumpy chop to the surface.  No wind.  Been an off shore flow.  Bigger and possibly cleaner surf outside of town.  Might take a drive on Thursday to take a look as fresh swell arrives.  Maybe I'll get the camera back out. Might try to paddle around Cowells before that, just to get back int he water.  And take advantage of this fantastic run of weather.  It will be cooler starting tomorrow, hitting only the low 70s.  Upper 60s Wednesday, and through the rest of the week.

Ski resorts are open.  The upper mountains have good coverage, but it gets pretty thin below 8000 feet.  This dry spell has not helped, but resorts with big snow making systems have had a good run.  It was cold up there until a few days ago, and will be cold again.  Problem now is there in an inversion.  Bad for spots like Rose or Kirkwood, but great for making snow on the lower runs at Squaw or Heavenly.  Northstar has focused on their frontside and have a good variety of runs open off Pluto.  Mammoth is in great shape at Main Lodge and will have all three bases open in a few days.  On the other hand, the higher based resorts have a ton more natural snow top to bottom.  No, it is not epic, but there is snow.  Get out there and stretch your legs.  I wish I could.

No change to the forecast.  Decent westerly swell for Thursday into Friday. Fair weathers.  Wisps of weather possible around the 20th.  My experience tells me these things usually take longer than predicted, so maybe a Christmas Eve present.  And I certainly don't see the storm doors flinging open.  But I'll keep watching.  And post up any changes before then.  Enjoy this fine stretch.  Grab a sunset walk on a beach.  They have been off the hook.  Tonight there was a blazing red fire ball.

Ten Days.

That is about how long it has been since we have seen rain.  Actually a bit longer than that.  As well as since I last post (sorry about that - my leg cast came off, the weather has been fine, and it has been all about the rehab).  And it will be at least ten days until we see rain again.  What began as a decent start to the water year should took a quick halt back around Thanksgiving.  Good for me, my healing, my unfinished yard work and my need for roofing repairs to be completed before the main part of winter.  Not so good for snow lovers or maintaining non drought status.  In fact, we've seen about 4.5% more of California become Abnormally Dry, again, over the last week, with 1.5% shifting into Moderate Drought.  Not good folks.  Those numbers are small, but you can see, at this point in time, we are slowly moving back into drought.  Currently 65% of the state is normal, or wetter than typical.

Anyway. Forecast.  Nice.  Sun.  Cool mornings, mild afternoons, offshore breezes.  In fact, today will be splendid, pushing into the upper 70s.  Get out and get some.  Some nice small to moderate swell out there, coming from both the W and SW.  It actually almost seems like October out there today. Head high to overhead swell on the exposed coast.  More swell arriving today, and a bigger one later this week.  Sure wish this ankle were ready for the surf.  It is rocking out there right now.  Some of my favorite conditions; when you can get out of town and surf any spot on the coast.  Anyway, today is the warmest of the week, with a cooling trend into Wednesday when we drop into the upper 60s.  High temps should be in the upper 60s through next weekend.  With all sun.  Overnight lows in the low 40s to start the week, and upper 40s by Sunday.

I'm watching the charts for a pattern change here.  As soon as I see that, I will get around to posting more.  In the meantime, enjoy this great weather and prepare for winter.  As you know, when she comes, she comes.  As it stands now, we are looking for a slight chance of light rain possible just before Christmas, as our high pressure shifts slightly west, allowing some storms, and cold, to push down from the north.  Only time will tell.

Sunday, November 26, 2017

Swift and Solid.

Rain begins later today.  GFS is still suggesting holding off until sunset until any serious rain.  The radar has a lot of rain well north; as in out of state.  Still, there is a band just pff shore south of SF, so we could begin seeing rain earlier.  The heaviest of rain will be from late afternoon to late evening, with rain becoming lighter by midnight.  We cold see up to a half inch of rain by Monday morning. We could even see totals approaching an inch, especially in the mountains.  Tahoe is still looking at a possible foot of dense snow above 8K.   Be prepared for the commute after several days to a week off.  Rain and returning workers will clog up that road.  On Monday, showers will likely happen during the morning daytime hours, with sun likely by afternoon.  It will be cool, in the low 60s.

The rest of the week will be epic autumn weather.  Overnight will be chilly, in the mid 40s.  Clear.  Sunny days, with warming through the week into the mid and upper 60s.  We will need to look at the mid term over the next few days.  Models keep changing.  Some have a cut off low hitting LA; some have us dry under a big fat high pressure; some have cold air pushing south.  So a bunch of different outcomes are possible, from warmth and sun, to cold and rain.  Time will tell.

Friday, November 24, 2017

Sunday Evening Punch.

Oh my goodness.  I spent today with the family at the car lot.  It needed to get done, but man, what a day to miss being out doors.  Absolutely stunning.  What a great week this has been.  It was 75F when I got home just before 4PM today.  Ah.  Love it here.  Anyway, all good things must come to pass.  The storm last week put down enough snow for a few resorts to open up for skiing this past week.  Snow was described as excellent spring sugar, or corn.  Dense base of a few feet.  Well, more is to come for above 7000 feet.  And that means rain for us.  Tomorrow, Saturday looks a bit like today, but cooler. Still hitting the low 70s though.  It will be a nice one.  Get outside.  With, perhaps, more clouds by evening.  But those do help the sunset.

NWS is calling for a chance of rain overnight, but GFS suggest it holds off until after noon on Sunday.  Regardless, rain should fill in during the day Sunday.  Right now it looks like we will get hit, and hit hard, late afternoon and evening.  Exact timing, as always, is hard to nail down.  With this rain comes a cold front.  It will only warm into the mid 60s on Sunday.  If that.  Windy too.  Rain is expected heaviest Sunday evening through the early morning hours of Monday.  Light rain may persist through the day Monday.  All told maybe 3/4" of rain here in town.  Monday will be in the low 60s.  And the cool air persists after that with temps rebounding only to maybe to the mid 60s.  With a little luck, Thursday could be warmer.  But more weather is on the horizon.

For now, expect less than a foot of snow on the ski resorts.  Some higher resorts on near the crest could get a foot.  Not a big storm, but more snow, and water for California.  It is nice to see a normal seasonal shift, even if this year I'd prefer it to stay dry for a few more weeks.