Over Under.

The first wave of the storm over performed and the second under performed. It is hard today to get an accurate rain gauge reading, as many are currently down in town, and those that are up, have a huge range.  DelaVeaga is coming in hot with .77" yesterday and .35" from Tuesday night.  That is an inch of rain for this 2nd wave, which is right on target to even over performing.  WeatherCat puts the total at almost 1/3 inch, which is way less, and a slight under performer.  The WestherUderground gauges that are reporting put the Toal rainfall closer to .15" from yesterday.  Like I said, quite a range.  Ultimately, it felt like a lot less than a half inch of rain yesterday.  Some very short periods of moderate rain, but mostly light and intermittent showers. And that third wave looks like it will amount to maybe a tenth of an inch.  Meanwhile, the Sierra got pounded pretty hard, with over a foot of fresh snow above 7000 feet, with plenty more than that on the peaks.

Today, Thursday, we will see clouds, remain cool and have a chance for some light showers in the morning.  Sun could break out by afternoon.  Then it is a warming trend folks.  Mid 70s by Sunday.  Not big change there.  Some moderate NW winds develop in the afternoons, but we are looking at mostly light morning winds over the next few days.  Friday morning may be the exception with the departure of the storm developing a stronger NW flow easier in the day.  Otherwise it is looking quite fine out there through Sunday evening.

The next series of storms is right on the tail of this week.  GFS keeps flipping the forecast between keeping the entire series of storms just to our north, to having a direct hit on the Bay Area.  We will need to watch these, and keep in mind it is very hard to get a decent forecast this time of year more than 48 hours out.  We won't really have a handle on Monday until Saturday.  We could see any where from no rain next week, to up to two inches over three storms.  Geez.  These storms are not quite so cold, but we will see daytime highs drop almost 10 degrees from Sunday.  Slightly cooler air, wind and clouds can do that.  But it won't be cold.  That is good news.

Long range still shows an active pattern up to two weeks out.  Agin, these forecasts are not reliable when it comes to details, but this suggest that we could see possible rain and storm systems moving through well into April.  Sooner or later the high pressure will come in for real, and drive us out of the rainy season.  Still, even when that happens, we can still see storms break through on occasion.  In 2011 we saw rain into June. That was a wonderful year for spring skiing and for hiking.  In case you have not noticed, the state is looking pretty green.  And yellow, red, orange, purple, gold and more as we are headed into a super bloom.  If you have never been, consider a hike down in Pinnacles National Park.  It is just an hour and half from here, and it is going off right now.