March is pretty much looking like it came in like a lion, went full on lamb, and will be wrapping up as a lion. Sort of. If we could just not include the coming weekend. After a spell of magnificent weather, we are into the rain again. Friday night we received about an inch of rain on the west side. Last night, we collected about a half inch of rain. And more is on the way. Today, Tuesday, will be cloudy and mild, with a high temperature in the low to mid 60s. We could see some showery weather; most likely early and late in the day, with mid day the best chance for a peek of sunshine. Light and variable winds in the morning, along with a moderate swell might make it a surf day.
Southwest winds pick up in the afternoon, and more rain moves in this evening. Round two for this mid week storm system. This next round is the bulk of the storm, and we should at least double our accumulation for the week. Expect about a half inch of rain to fall again overnight, with rain continuing into the day on Wednesday. Accumulation will be lighter during the day Wednesday, and we could see the steady rain shift to our north by afternoon. High of about 60F. Showers could continue into the evening Wednesday. We are looking at a total rain fall of about 3/4 to one inch.
It looks like the rain will be just to our north and east on Thursday. We could still see some showers. More likely is sunshine by afternoon. And a little more warmth to come with that sunshine. From there, the rest of the month looks pretty stellar. A little lamb on top. Open face style. With the clearing sky, we see overnight lows drop. Tonight will hang in the low 50s. Friday night will be in the low 40s. But let us first speak of Friday. Sunshine. Warmth. Spring.
This coming weekend is looking to be pretty damn stellar. Mid to upper 60s, with 70F not out of the question. Warmest on Sunday. It looks like it will be another beach day here in Santa Cruz. Low tide will be .24' at 2:45PM on Sunday, so you can expect a crowd out on the sand bar. We will be headed out to the snow, but will likely be at the beach Saturday. Speaking of snow, Tahoe has an epic snow pack right now. With another few feet on the way this week, things are only getting better as Vail prepares to shut down its resorts. Boo. Several of the locally and privately owned resorts like Diamond Peak and Homewood plan to stay open through the end of April. Alterra is keeping Squaw and Mammoth open through the 4th of July, with Alpine closing date yet to be announced. There are several months of awesome spring skiing left. It is a great time of year to get out on the slopes, whether you are a first timer or old hat. Make some spring and summer turns this year.
Finally, water. We are still hanging with 6.58% of the state listed as Abnormally Dry. Perhaps this week will get water to the extreme north west portion of the state, but not likely to get it to the south. Of note is the Drought Severity and Coverage Index is now sitting at 7. Last year at this time, the DSCI was 159. At the start of our water year it was 164, and was 186 just three months ago. We received a tremendous amount of rain fall in that time, but the great news is it came as a moderate steady stream. Compare that to two years ago, when we received almost all our our rain for the water year in a five week period. That led to a huge number of mud and land slides, roads and bridges being washed out and a lot of infrastructure depletion. It sure felt nice to not have that level of damage this year. Sure, we saw damage. A friend had an old growth douglas fir split their home in half. But overall, we escaped what could have been a damaging year.
Looking at the long term, a weak system tries to break down the high pressure on Sunday afternoon. It likely will be deflected north. Maybe some light rain Sunday night or Monday. A few weak systems early in the week, push the high pressure out, and we could see rain returning by mid week or the following weekend. On the fantasy charts, we have a wet week the 2nd week of April. Composite models continue to suggest a wetter than average April and May. These months are typically fairly dry, so not really expecting a big winter storm cycle. Just more rain. Keep posted
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