It's Back.

Rain has returned to the region after a long hiatus of almost 40 hours.  Hope you were able to keep your flower beds from drying out.  Just about 50F out there this morning.  We won't see that thermometer move too much today.  High expected to be around 56F.  The rain will come and go over the next few days.  This storm is pushing onshore to our north, and dragging a weak AR into the state to our south.  We are in the middle of all that and surprisingly will see much less precipitation that other regions nearby.  As the storm moves ashore Wednesday, a cold front will swing south and the storm will align with the Sierra, dropping a foot or more of snow.  Rain at lake level today.

December had some great surf. A little tougher to find a good day since.  Scotts Creek, December, 2017.

There is a pretty wide range of forecast for our area.  Some have as little as a tenth of an inch of rain for each 12 hour period through Thursday morning.  Others have up to a half inch.  That is a big range.  The coastal mountains will for sure squeeze a good amount out of this system, but here in town, we might see closer tot he low end.  My forecast for today is showers, moderate at times, with breaks in between.  About 2/10", with most of that falling after lunch.  The system will ramp up a bit this evening, but precipitation rates in town will remain on the low side.  Another 3/10" overnight for a total of 1/2" by Wednesday morning.  When the storm moves ashore mid day tomorrow, we will have a brief, but moderate plus rainfall just after the cold front passes through.  Temps remain in the 50s through this period.

With the cold front, Wednesday night will be a bit cooler, down in the upper 40s.  Rain showers should be lighter by dark, but could persist into Friday morning.  We see the chances for showers decrease through the period, and any accumulation will be light to minimal. Thursday will be cloudy with a high in the low to mid 50s.  Thursday night will have some clearing, with a low of about 40F.  Chilly, eh?  Friday, more clearing and high again in the mid 50s.  Even cooler Friday night.

By Saturday we should see a decent amount of sunshine, and high pressure is actually planning on moving in and setting up camp.  It will be a challenge though, as another storm will be just off our coast.  The weekend could be nice, but we could be brushed by rain as that system drops south just to our west.  We all want our sunshine, and we all have received enough water for now.  The plants need to grow.  The kids need to get outside.  As do the adults.  Regardless of this weekend, that high pressure will struggle to stick around for the following week to ten days.  It would really feel like spring is that happens. Look for a warming trend, and with luck, we will be in the low 60s by Tuesday and even warming by next Friday.