Thursday, November 6, 2014


Well folks, that wonderful pattern of gorgeous warm weather mid week punctuated by light to moderate rain every weekend has come to a close.  Now we are stuck in a pattern of nothing but gorgeous, warm weather.  At least for the short term.  A solid high pressure has developed over us and looks to stick around for at least the coming week.  Boring.  Daily highs in the mid 70s for the next few days and early morning lows in the low 50s.  Sunshine abounds with barely a wisp of cloud in the sky.  Some might call this perfect fall weather.  While I agree it is great weather for finishing up your outside projects before the onset of weather, I do wish we still had some rain in the forecast.  Now, let us look at some details for this week.

It was fun while it lasted you rotten pumpkin.

Saturday is looking like it will be the warmest of the of the period.  Today, Thursday will be a touch cooler than yesterday was, as will Friday.  Not sure if Saturday will be quite as warm as Wednesday was, but it will be really close.  Sunday will not be far behind.  So, yeah, warm.  And stagnant.  We will begin to see a bit a bit of a cooling trend on Monday though, and by the middle of next week, the daily high will drop into the mid to upper 60s.

So, this time of year, when looking at forecast models, anything beyond three days out is not terribly reliable.  Trends can be helpful to look at though, and the trend of a blocking high does seem likely.  As we move into the 3-7 day range, the trend line can be a reliable tool, but smaller details of the forecast are hard to have much confidence with.  Beyond that we really make our best geustimate.  Blah, blah, blah.  And why am I bothering typing this?  Mostly because we have seen a consistent forecast of some sort of rain storm for around Friday the 14th.  This is still 9 days out, so until we get a few days closer, this is really just some guessing.  But maybe we are not in stagnation.  Maybe the pattern has taken the week off.  Gone on vacation.  Maybe we will return to rainy weekend again next week.  Could we be so blessed?  Time will tell.  For now, get out and enjoy the weather and the awesome weekend weather we are about to enjoy.

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