Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Wow, folks, this may be for reals.

This morning, just before 8AM, I saw a few areas of blue poking through that marine layer.  And odd things this thing.  Kind of feels like summer, but not really.  Well, anyway, that was the last of the blue I saw today, as those high fog clouds stuck through till the end.  Still thinking we could see that marine layer clear out ahead of the storm tomorrow.  Could mean it will feel a touch warmer if the sun is hitting you, but doubtful we will get much north of 65F.  By later in the day we should see the clouds ahead of the rain system filling in.  Could set us up for a nice sunset.  Anyway, from the models I've seen today, still looks like the rain should fill in after midnight in Santa Cruz.  Also looks like we could see light, sporadic showers through most of the daylight hours on Thursday.  High in the 60s again.

The Sierra Crest got a bit of snow over Halloween.  Just enough to make it white.

So, it looks like we could have a nice weekend on tap.  Models still have not settled on a solution for the potential system on Sunday, so we have two scenarios setting up.  Number one has us drying out Thursday night, with a good shot of sun on Friday, and even more through the weekend, with high temps moving up to the low 70s by the weekend.  Scenario number two has that warmth and sunshine interrupted by some clouds and showers on Sunday.  Let us assume for now it will be nice.  You will know where to check for an update.  But that is not even the news.

I've got two items today.  First, we have the surf setting up for something fun to watch or play in by Thursday.  That whole super storm up in the Bearing Sea actually recorded the lowest barometric pressure in recorded history.  Well, that is sending us some waves for Wednesday, but with a poor trajectory, and filtering by the Aleutians, that is not really the news.  As the storm (which by the way is the same one that will be bringing us showers Thursday) moved south into the Gulf of Alaska, is began building fetches on top of long period swell,  and that will over run us on Thursday, along with locally produced waves as the storm moves ashore.  Could really churn things up.  Maybe some big surf up the coast, but I would not expect this thing to look pristine in much of anyway.  Just perhaps a welcome to the winter season.  As local conditions mellow into the weekend, we could be left with plenty of swell to clean up and make for real fun surf.

Item number two.  More and more it is looking like a wet week next week.  As in very wet.  First storm is lined up to arrive on Monday, with plenty queuing up behind it.  Could be rain every day.  Some days recording over an inch.  Maybe several of those kind of days.  Yeah, still pretty far out with the first one still six days out, so sure, a lot can change.  You just may want to consider using this weekend to fix any leaks, do erosion control work, bring in your tools, and toys, and anything that might blow away.  Could be a good time to plant some lettuce seed.  More on this later, but keep it in the back of your mind.  It has been a while since we have seen a period like this.  Could be fun for some.  Hectic for others.

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