Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Clearly, the weather is fall like.

Nights are slightly cooler these days, even when we have some fog or cloud cover.  Been hanging around in the upper 50s across town, but with more cool air coming our way, those over night lows will be dropping into the mid 50s by next week.  In contrast, during the summer, we barely dip below 60F most nights.  And there was that rain thing this morning.  Not sure if you knew what that stuff was.  I doubt we measure even a tenth of an inch, but around 7:30 this morning we started to pick up a drizzle at the house, that seemed to come to a stop on our way to school at 8:30.  But, yeah, everyone we say was stoked on it.  Smiles abounded.  Where else do the locals show such splendor when it rains?  Well, this might make you happy then.  More chances for rain are on the way.  And while even run of the models seems to shift the bulk of the systems more north as they come into the short term, based on this morning, I'd suspect we will see more in the coming week.  And if it is not wet, then I bet it is going to be fine and sunny.

Old and new sit side by side in Manhattan.  

This afternoon looks nice, with small swell in the water, and slight northerly winds developing.  Crisper day, as it started with cooler air, and clouds, and it will take more work to warm things up.  Tonight we will see some lingering clouds, but the marine layer is not likely to develop, with the low pressure still in charge.  So, based on that, I suspect Thursday will have a very nice morning.  Cool and crisp, with some moderate warming.  A bit warmer than today.  By Friday the next system up stream should be starting to effect our weather.  This one does not currently seem to be packing the south winds we had yesterday afternoon, which leads me to believe we could stay dry this run.  Still, greatest chance of showers will be Friday afternoon, into evening.  Still planning on clearing out mostly on Sunday, with some sunshine and warming.  Along with a chance for light winds.  And yeah, there is more surf on the way, with a possible large long period west swell for late in the weekend.  Monday could be a good one.

Anyway, more systems still upstream.  Current model runs suggest still a brushing by the first system early in the week, but with a change to strong high pressure filling in behind it.  A few days ago, several days of off and on rain was in the charts.  That too was followed by a decent strength high, but not until Friday or so.  Anyway, after this series of passing storms, we could see a return to the warmer, sunnier, more offshore weather that gets me excited to go hang out on the beach.  

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