Gonna have to be quick and sweet this evening. Busy day. The past five runs of the the GFS, along with the Euro and Canadian are all trending toward a wetter solution. The system has moved into the NW corner of the state, and moisture is already pushing south. Pretty sure I just felt a few drops outside, but that might have been the fog. Bullseye has shifted north around Half Moon Bay with 1.6" of liquid. Expect most of that in the hills, but the coast and valley will get plenty wet. A strip of 1.5" plus is forecast along the Sierra spine with a 1.7" double bullseye around Lassen and Mammoth Lakes. Rain all the way down to San Diego, but not quite penetrating the desert. A goos start for the state.
I'm pretty much done guessing how it will all turn out, but it looks like the bulk of the rain will fall here between noon on Friday and 6AM on Saturday. Expect some before and after that period. I'd be ready for rain pretty much from 3AM Friday until 3PM Saturday. Might even keep a shell nearby until Sunday. Still looks pretty nice Sunday, with what is starting to look like hot offshore flow for the middle of next week. Again. If you are traveling to, or over, the Sierra Friday or Saturday, be prepared for winter driving conditions, slick roads, wipeouts and road closures. I do expect I80 to close some time Friday from accidents. NOAA upped t Winter Storm Watch to a Warning and are calling for 8-15" in the peaks, with six ore more at lake level. Snow levels could drop below 5000 feet by early Saturday morning. Yup, this one is looking like a nice start. Updates tomorrow on the storm and this weekend for the coming weekend and more storms upstream.