Monday, October 27, 2014

October's been progressive. But what does it mean????

We did have that quick, hot, offshore event in the early part of the month, signifying the start of autumn, then things went progressive.  Typically we would not have heated up quite as nicely as we did.  Typically big bubble of high sitting upon us in October would get us up to maybe the mid 80s, and a touch cooler down by the water.  And typically, we would have had that weather stick around for longer periods, inter spaced with still mostly sunny, but cooler weather in the 70s as the high got depressed by fall storms running into British Columbia and occasionally dipping into the PNW, with maybe one impacting California.  Instead, we have seen regular systems hitting the PNW, and about once a week a threat of light to moderate rain as far south as the Central Coast.  Combine with that at least periods of gusty south winds, and it is easy to see that October has been quite progressive, acting like we are approaching Thanksgiving instead of Halloween.  Speaking of Halloween, hope your costume is water proof.  I'm thinking of the guy that wraps himself in plastic wrap.  That might a good plan if you don't mind not breathing through your skin.

Ready to board.  Perkins Cove, Maine.

Timing and intensity has changed a bit for the coming week, but really the models are looking quite consistent and the forecast has a fair amount of confidence in the general run of things.  Of course, as we move through the week, timing and intensity are likely to change.  But expect something a bit like this.  Today is nice and warm, with a strong northwest wind on the outer waters keeping things from warming up too much.  Some small westerly short period swell is out on the water.  Could be fun at the beaches in the mornings.  Otherwise, that northwest wind will keep a good chop on things.  Tuesday looks about the same, with perhaps the wind being a touch lighter, the air a touch warmer and the surf a touch smaller.  What is looking like a real nice day is Wednesday.  We could see light off shores in the morning, with  no real onshore gradient developing.  Thinking we could be hitting 80F and the best corners in town.  Should be nice and warm at the downtown market in the afternoon.  ANd while Thursday looks to begin very nicely, the next storm upstream for us will begin moving onshore and down the coast.  We won't see rain on Thursday, but increasing clouds, and a developing westerly flow look to be in the cards.  So yeah, not as warm as the humpday.  Sounding familiar?

Current runs of the GFS and EC suggest that around mid day on Friday we should see the first of the rain for this week's storm.  And while the rain totals forecast have dropped a bit with today's noon hour run, they still look impressive enough to feel confident that we will be seeing at least a threat for some light rain.  And a decent chance at seeing moderate rain.  Temps back down into the upper 60s as cool air moves ashore during the day.  Showers possible overnight and into the morning hours Saturday.  They shouldn't last through mid day though.  This is another quick mover.  High clouds clear out early on Sunday for more sunshine, and northwest winds filling in the high pressure.  Back up to the low 70s and then warming through mid week, then chance of a rain system....

Anyway, so what does it all mean?  I guess I'll write about that tomorrow if I don't see much of a change in this week's weather.  In the meantime, enjoy the next few days, get outside and checkout the puddles before they are all gone by tomorrow.

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