Friday, October 24, 2014

Tough call, but it does look like some rain will fall.

All week most of the outlets were increasing the chances of rain for tonight and Saturday, while the models were all backing off on their prediction of precipitation.  As I watched this, I was wondering if the forecasters were just feeling optimistic that we could get the much needed water.  The 6PM GFS last night had us staying dry.  But this morning's 6AM now has rain extending down toward Point Sur during the day on Saturday.  Light rain.  Less than one tenth of an inch.  But still some rain.  Add to that the increase in south flow modeled (it was light, and it is now moderate) and I think we are looking at a good chance of at least one band of rain moving through on Saturday, likely between 7AM and 11AM.  An additional band may move through later in the day, so the threat of light rain will continue through the evening.  But before we spend too much time on tomorrow, let us look briefly at today.  Cool.  Plenty of fog/clouds this morning, with a chance for some mid day sun before the storm clouds begin to infiltrate this evening.  Highs linger in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Ya know they guy that captains this boat ain't afraid of a little rain.  Perkins Cove, Maine.

Now, there is still a lot up in the air, as this impending system is cut off from the jet.  It is currently stirring just offshore.  The current modeled track brings the center of the storm across the OR/CA border tomorrow morning with the south trailing front brushing our region.  Light showers will be likely for a few hours in the morning.  If this thing heads further north we will stay dry.  Shift it a little bit to the south and we could get much more rain.  The NCal coast if forecast to get a few inches of rain from this system.  So the water is there.  Just not here.  Cool on Saturday, with south winds and clouds.  Dress a bit warmer, and plan to bring some rain gear with you if you are heading out.  And still head out.  It is not like it is going to be a down pour.  Head up to Wilder Ranch and enjoy the Harvest Festival.  A chance of rain lingers through the afternoon, but we could see some clearing as well.  By Sunday this thing will be long gone, with a strong northwest flow and high pressure filling back in.  A touch warmer and in the low 70s Sunday.

I'll take a look at next week after this storm moves through.  The models have made a complete flip since yesterday, so I want to wait a few runs before trying to guess what is upstream.  Get out this weekend, enjoy the sprinkle, find some puddles to stomp, and make the most out of it.  All in all a great weekend on tap to get out and play.

Noon Thirty EDIT:  The 12h GFS run now has a lighter brush of rain, with timing being mostly between noon and 6PM Saturday.  So, yeah, even the GFS is having a hard time making a call.

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