Hard Saying, Not Knowing.

Gorgeous sunrise the morning.  Not nearly as cold as forecasted.  Low 40s, maybe even a bit warmer than Sunday morning.  Cool, fine weather today on Monday.  So, with this midweek storm we are going to have, it is cut off from the jet stream and will be doing its own thing.  That makes it hard to forecast.  This morning's 06hr model run suggests that we won't see any rain until daylight hours on Tuesday, and it will be light through that period.  The storm shifts more onshore Tuesday evening and we get a half inch plus overnight.  The real surprise is how quickly it shifts south, and we go dry by Wednesday mid morning.  Now, the rain line is basically just south of Watsonville, near Marina.  And (I know you don't start sentences with "and", but this is a though), it will be fairly heavy rain.  So a slight change in location or velocity of the storm, and we could see moderate rains through late Thursday.  But let's go with this forecast this morning.  Almost sunny late Wednesday, some sun Thursday and fine fine Friday.

It looks like the high pressure will hold for the weekend ahead, so use that time to get outside.  Maybe purchase a tree (if you are one of the few who do get a tree, but not on Black Friday).  They will be dry.  Next window for tree purchasing with added water will be late the following week.  As it stands now, there is another powerful system breaking through next Sunday night lasting into next Wednesday morning.  Another cut off low, that will take its Tim pushing inland.  This one looks to stay on top of us, instead of move south.

The really good news about al of this is that SoCal is getting some water folks.  For the first time in like 7 years, they are getting some decent early season rains.  That is excellent news.  You may have forgotten about the drought, as it is no longer Exceptional in large portions of the state.  Still, the entire state is listed as Abnormally Dry or in a level of Drought.  Five percent of the state was listed as Extreme at the start of the water year in late September.  It is now down to 3.78% as of November 29th.  I expect after these next two storms, we will see more drops, especially in the coastal regions. Just to keep you informed, we are in Moderate Drought on the OR Borger to SLO.  South of there they are in Severe Drought, with a section from Pt Conception to Ventura listed as Extreme.  Bring that water.

Surf is settling from a larger NW swell we had late last week and over the weekend.  Another NW should arrive on Thursday.  Smaller swell through the first half of the week, with easterly winds.  Smaller, but not tiny.  It is head high out there this morning.  If it was too ligand stormy for you over the weekend, and have time, get out over the next few days. More swell is on the way.