It was 81F in Oakland yesterday, while many in the Bay Area huddled inside of bars to watch the pig skin get tossed. Unless you are a die hard Packers fan, I say you missed out. It was a beach day. We had some pretty wonderful weather since this past Friday. But that is all about to change. We have a milder week on tap ahead of us, and a full pattern change and rain by late in the weekend. The rest of February will look very different from the past few weeks.
Today should be a bit cooler, with a high of 68F forecasted for Santa Cruz and 60F in SF. Tuesday, we can expect the return of gusty north winds (NW along the coast and central valley, NE in the Sierra) and colder air. Most areas of central California will struggle to get into the 60s on Tuesday. The rest of the week will be milder with high 60s returning to Santa Cruz by Thursday. Over the weekend, we have a chance of rain coming in some time on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Still, this system may brush to our north and east, keeping us dry. The real news is for next week though, as a series of storms are lining up to hit the west coast starting as early as Tuesday.
This is a week of transition. The snow up in the Sierra will mostly be firm, with a combination of cool to cold air and strong winds. Thursday looks like your best bet for soft snow until Valentine's Day, when we should be seeing the first of the real dumps. We still have another round or two of swell coming in, but the winds this week are not the ideal we have had over the past month. The weather should be pretty good for running and biking, expect for the strong winds forecasted on Tuesday. All, in all, a good period to hunker down and get some work done. Clean up the yard, tidy the garage, spend the extra hours at the office. If you are a powder hound, you may need some time off around the 17th, so make good this week.
We have had some great weather for the garden and produce. We will need to see how this next system comes in. Hopefully we do not get too cold and the rains not too heavy. I have started to enjoy the mid winter tomato a bit too much. Of course, we will continue to see kale and chard. Apples are slimming, but there are still some around. Citrus is strong. And if you are ever on route 88, Clements Ridge road side stand has opened back up, and they again have the most amazing Satsumas. Get some while they last.
More details on the coming weeks as the models settle. For now, cooler and dry through at least Saturday. The an increasing chance of rain and stormy weather.
Monday, February 7, 2011
Friday, February 4, 2011
One More Week. Get Out and Enjoy the Great Weather.
Yup. That is about the call now. One more week before this all begins to break down and become nothing more than a pleasant memory. 2010 left like a lion with one strong start to the water year and very cold temperatures. 2011 came in like a lamb with record highs and only a few brief sprinkles of rain. One more week. Our high pressure has begun its migration north, and will shift westerly early next week. By Thursday, a large low pressure system should begin to form in the Gulf of Alaska. Best guess right now for the return of rain is next Sunday. And once it comes, it should be more rain, than shine, for a spell.
This weekend, though, will be off the charts. If you are a weekend warrior, do not waste this opportunity to work on your tan. The breeze should be lighter than has been all week and the sky will be mostly clear. We may see a few higher elevation clouds due to the shifting high pressure, but it is not likely. Low 70s expected today through Monday in Santa Cruz. Up to the low 50s in Tahoe. Even the sunny side of Market Street in SF may top out at 70F. And this is February. Ground Hog Day. Mid-winter! While my family and friends on the east coast are experiencing one brutal winter storm after another, I am sipping Mai Tais and applying sunblock. Okay, I am not really sipping on cocktails, but I am applying a lot of sunblock these days.
The surf really jumped up yesterday to about 10' on the face, and the charts look even bigger this morning. Winds remain light in the mornings, and this should be a pretty good weekend to enjoy waves. The bike tracks were treated well by last weekend's rain, and the moisture has helped keep the trails nice and tacky. Wilder is reported as running very well, and the green meadow grass is looking beautiful up there. Along the coast there are all types of great hikes to get after. One of my favorites is up in Point Reyes out to Wildcat Falls. The water is still running pretty well along the coastal falls, although nothing like it was a few weeks ago. And of course there is always the double excursion to Ano Nuevo for a hike out to the headlands followed by U-Pick kiwi across the street. Wrap that up with a stop at Pie Ranch for some tasty treats.
And the snow, for you folks heading up there this weekend. "Variable" will be the word of choice. Sierra at Tahoe and Kirkwood are getting the best user reports, with still a fair amount of soft snow in northerly facing aspects. A Northstar skier reported untracked powder still is to be found in a few select spots on the hill. The wind and cold of the last week has done its best to preserve the fresh snow from Sunday. The more westerly and southerly facing zones have moved into spring like conditions already - firm in the mornings and softening with the day. This condition will likely become more widespread after today heats up. Still, expect to find some winterly chalk in the shadows, and up at the higher elevations. As for the backcountry, there is still has some unconsolidated powder in select spots, but expect mostly variable conditions running from powder, to chalk, to corn.
A great weekend ahead, and 7 or so days of fair weather to get your outside self in order. Then be ready for the change of pattern. No whining please; you have had more than your fair share of sunshine. Now we need to allow those in the east to dig them selves out. We still need more rain to make this a good water year, and ask any snowboarder - we need more snow.
This weekend, though, will be off the charts. If you are a weekend warrior, do not waste this opportunity to work on your tan. The breeze should be lighter than has been all week and the sky will be mostly clear. We may see a few higher elevation clouds due to the shifting high pressure, but it is not likely. Low 70s expected today through Monday in Santa Cruz. Up to the low 50s in Tahoe. Even the sunny side of Market Street in SF may top out at 70F. And this is February. Ground Hog Day. Mid-winter! While my family and friends on the east coast are experiencing one brutal winter storm after another, I am sipping Mai Tais and applying sunblock. Okay, I am not really sipping on cocktails, but I am applying a lot of sunblock these days. 
The surf really jumped up yesterday to about 10' on the face, and the charts look even bigger this morning. Winds remain light in the mornings, and this should be a pretty good weekend to enjoy waves. The bike tracks were treated well by last weekend's rain, and the moisture has helped keep the trails nice and tacky. Wilder is reported as running very well, and the green meadow grass is looking beautiful up there. Along the coast there are all types of great hikes to get after. One of my favorites is up in Point Reyes out to Wildcat Falls. The water is still running pretty well along the coastal falls, although nothing like it was a few weeks ago. And of course there is always the double excursion to Ano Nuevo for a hike out to the headlands followed by U-Pick kiwi across the street. Wrap that up with a stop at Pie Ranch for some tasty treats. 
And the snow, for you folks heading up there this weekend. "Variable" will be the word of choice. Sierra at Tahoe and Kirkwood are getting the best user reports, with still a fair amount of soft snow in northerly facing aspects. A Northstar skier reported untracked powder still is to be found in a few select spots on the hill. The wind and cold of the last week has done its best to preserve the fresh snow from Sunday. The more westerly and southerly facing zones have moved into spring like conditions already - firm in the mornings and softening with the day. This condition will likely become more widespread after today heats up. Still, expect to find some winterly chalk in the shadows, and up at the higher elevations. As for the backcountry, there is still has some unconsolidated powder in select spots, but expect mostly variable conditions running from powder, to chalk, to corn.
A great weekend ahead, and 7 or so days of fair weather to get your outside self in order. Then be ready for the change of pattern. No whining please; you have had more than your fair share of sunshine. Now we need to allow those in the east to dig them selves out. We still need more rain to make this a good water year, and ask any snowboarder - we need more snow.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
Another Great Weekend is in the Making.
Another cold day today, and then some significant warming to follow. The weekend is looking great at this point. Santa Cruz county is looking forward to mid 70s by Sunday (only 70F on the coast) and even SF should warm up to the high 60s. I keep saying, "enjoy it while it lasts," but it keeps coming and coming. I still do expect this all to change, but it is taking some time for the pattern to shift.
While we are enjoying this great (warm and clear) winter weather, the east coast is currently experiencing a 'storm of the decade' and if you are headed that way, expect crazy delays. And pack a parka. It is cold, blustery and wintery east of the river. The NOA has shifted positive, though, and we can look for the Hudson Bay Low to shift and dissipate, allowing for warming in the east. This also opens up the exit door for any storms that may want to hit the west coast in the near future. The PNA is still forecasted to move significantly negative in the next few days and the models are beginning to pick up on this. Our high pressure should begin to migrate north, and then west, next week. This would open up the storm doors around next weekend (2/12).
Tuesday was a fantastic day to be out touring in the Sierra. Nearly a foot and half of new snow feel over areas near the crest on Sunday. Monday remained cold, with a slight east breeze brewing. Tuesday the easterlies had really picked up, ushering in particularly chiller air. Still, if you knew where to go, you could avoid the blustery east winds, ski thigh deep powder and have it all to your self. So we shot a round of golf.
And avoid that ridge you wanted. The air temperature remained well below freezing all day; the wind sure did not make things toasty. But the powder was light. Inbounds it was mostly about perfect chalky groomers, and wind blown snow. The conditions should hold up nicely this week and through the weekend. Cold and windy days will keep the snow chalky, but that will begin to change by Friday. The weekend should ski pretty nicely with high 40s, sun and little wind. By Sunday we should be transitioned well into spring type conditions.
More surf on tap this week. This morning we are seeing the same north east wind that hit the Sierra yesterday. This is making for a chilly morning, but cleaning up the swells. This morning is smaller, but size should bump up by afternoon. The rest of the week continues in the 10' range and then begins to subside for the weekend. After that we should see a drop in wave activity.
Plan for another great weekend. This may be your last for a while. I know I say this often, but I really mean it this time. I guess the moral of the story is - don't let your days off go to waste. Enjoy the great weather, and get the most out of the next week. And don't forget to check your gardens. Another warm spell will help dry soil out further. And make those plants grow.
While we are enjoying this great (warm and clear) winter weather, the east coast is currently experiencing a 'storm of the decade' and if you are headed that way, expect crazy delays. And pack a parka. It is cold, blustery and wintery east of the river. The NOA has shifted positive, though, and we can look for the Hudson Bay Low to shift and dissipate, allowing for warming in the east. This also opens up the exit door for any storms that may want to hit the west coast in the near future. The PNA is still forecasted to move significantly negative in the next few days and the models are beginning to pick up on this. Our high pressure should begin to migrate north, and then west, next week. This would open up the storm doors around next weekend (2/12).
And avoid that ridge you wanted. The air temperature remained well below freezing all day; the wind sure did not make things toasty. But the powder was light. Inbounds it was mostly about perfect chalky groomers, and wind blown snow. The conditions should hold up nicely this week and through the weekend. Cold and windy days will keep the snow chalky, but that will begin to change by Friday. The weekend should ski pretty nicely with high 40s, sun and little wind. By Sunday we should be transitioned well into spring type conditions.
More surf on tap this week. This morning we are seeing the same north east wind that hit the Sierra yesterday. This is making for a chilly morning, but cleaning up the swells. This morning is smaller, but size should bump up by afternoon. The rest of the week continues in the 10' range and then begins to subside for the weekend. After that we should see a drop in wave activity.
Plan for another great weekend. This may be your last for a while. I know I say this often, but I really mean it this time. I guess the moral of the story is - don't let your days off go to waste. Enjoy the great weather, and get the most out of the next week. And don't forget to check your gardens. Another warm spell will help dry soil out further. And make those plants grow.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Sunny Days Return. Pattern Change Looking Likely to Begin in Ten Days
Sunday's rain came an left early this past weekend in Santa Cruz. It was a wonderful evening for a post rain walk. There is nothing quite like a clearing sky to make for fantastic sunsets. We had a nice moderate fall of rain to settle the dust, moisten the ground and wash away the dirt. The fresh rain left drops on the grass, and signs of spring were bountiful - even if that seems a bit odd for late January. We have tulips breaking the ground, and blossoms on the trees. I wonder how they will fair with the return of colder air.
The swells continue pouring into the coast. The wind has not been the surfer's friend since Friday, but we should see east morning winds starting tomorrow. Today is the small day for the week at head high, but new long period swells arrive on Wednesday and Friday, keeping the waves in the 10 foot range through weeks end.
Don't forget to tend to your gardens this week. The rain was nice, but check your usual areas for soil drainage. This was not a deluge, and we have not had any significant rain for weeks, soil expect soils to drain well. You may need to do a watering by Thursday or Friday. This is still a good time to get some lettuce in, but the window for new plantings will close soon, perhaps this weekend. It has been a great period for growth. I just hope our flowering favas set some beans before the next round of rains.
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